Twentieth Century Inventions: A Forecast

Twenty years ago the author started a career in technological journalism by writing descriptions of what he regarded as the most promising inventions which had been displayed in international exhibitions then recently held. From that time until the present it has been his constant duty and practice to take note of the advance of inventive science as applied to industrial improvement—to watch it as an organic growth, not only from a philosophical, but also from a practical, point of view. The advance towards the actual adoption of any great industrial invention is generally a more or less collective movement; and, in the course of a practice such as that referred to, the habit of watching the signs of progress has been naturally acquired.
Moreover, it has always been necessary to take a comprehensive, rather than a minute or detailed, view of the progress of the great industrial army of nineteenth century civilisation towards certain objectives. It is better, for some purposes of technological journalism, to be attached to the staff than to march with any individual company—for the war correspondent must ever place himself in a position from which a bird's-eye view is possible. The personal aspect of the campaign becomes merged in that which regards the army as an organic unit.
It may, therefore, be claimed that, in some moderate degree, the author is fitted by training and opportunities for undertaking the necessarily difficult task of foretelling the trend of invention and industrial improvement during the twentieth century. He must, of course, expect to be wrong in a certain proportion of his prognostications; but, like the meteorologists, he will be content if in a fair percentage of his forecasts it should be admitted that he has reasoned correctly according to the available data.
The questions to be answered in an inquiry as to the chances of failure or success which lie before any invention or proposed improvement are, first, whether it is really wanted; and, secondly, whether the environment in the midst of which it must make its début is favourable. These requirements generally depend upon matters which, to a large extent, stand apart from the personal qualifications of any individual inventor.