III.
The zones of absolute influence, whether direct or indirect, which Germany, in accordance with the 1911 plan, has tried to secure for herself in the South and South-East of her present frontiers, comprise three totally distinct groups of territory: Austria-Hungary, the Balkans, and Turkey. It is therefore advisable to examine separately how at the beginning of 1916 Germany stood in respect of each of these three groups.
THE GERMAN CLAIMS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST.
1º. Austria-Hungary.
Let us make no mistake, Austria-Hungary is actually as much under William II.’s domination as is Belgium. The European conflict has enabled Germany artfully to occupy the Empire of the Hapsburgs under the pretence of defending it, in fact to seize it as provided for by the plan of 1911. Since the beginning of 1915 all the troops of Francis Joseph have been entirely under the orders of the Berlin General Staff. Even if Austria-Hungary wished to make a separate peace, she could not do so, for all her motive power, diplomatic and military, is exclusively controlled by the Kaiser’s agents. The Austro-German alliance is merely a piece of stage scenery. The much-talked of device of smuggling the Hapsburg Empire into Germany by a back door, that is, by her entrance into the Zollverein or Customs Union, is a broad farce. It can merely deceive those, alas still too numerous, who are insufficiently informed of the true facts in Austria-Hungary. The Austro-German fusion in the shape of a Customs Union is besides no novelty. The process of absorbing Austria-Hungary was foreseen and described in detail in the Pangerman pamphlet of 1895, showing the fundamental lines of the plan of that date. All the fuss made at the beginning of 1916 by the German Press about the so-called wishes of the Austro-Hungarians to enter into the Zollverein has been the most “Kolossal” and the most dishonest of bluffs. In truth, nearly three-fourths of the populations at present subject to Francis Joseph do not want to be absorbed into Germany at any price, neither in a political, nor in an economic fashion. All the stir made in the Central Empires about the entrance of the Hapsburg Monarchy into the Zollverein, has been the doing of Pangerman bear leaders at Berlin or Vienna and of the Magyar aristocracy, and not at all of the Magyar people, which is not the same thing. Let us therefore not be duped by the bluff of the German press on the Zollverein question. The microscopic minority who wish it in Austria-Hungary plays the Berlin game. What is undeniable is that at present Austria-Hungary is entirely under the Prussian thumb.
2º. The Balkans.
The whole of Serbia has been overrun by the Germans. The predicament of the Serbian population is extremely cruel. Either they have been massacred, or systematically famished or deported to Germany to work in the factories or on the German land. These appalling measures of coercion have not prevented the Kaiser from addressing a manifesto: “To my noble and heroic Serbian People.” The aim was, by fine words, to disarm morally the remainder of the Serbian population, terrorized by a series of sufferings unsurpassed in history. As to Serbia, the Kaiser offered part of it to Austria, always in accordance with the plan of 1895 which provided for this solution; for to give a fraction of Serbia to Austria as a member of the Zollverein, is practically to put it under the direct domination of Germany.
As to Bulgaria, the ally of Germany, she is entirely absorbed, and the Germans there behave as rulers so far as they possibly can. Heroic Montenegro has suffered exactly the same fate as Serbia, one part of Albania is also occupied. If the Allies had been fatuous enough not to understand, at the eleventh hour, the importance of Salonika, Greece and Roumania, where Germanophile elements are not numerous but very influential, would already have obeyed to the letter the orders of Berlin.
Supposing, for argument’s sake, that there were a German victory, we would immediately see Germany constituting a Balkan Confederation under the headship of Austria, considered as a Balkan power, simply because, under the name of Austria, it would really be Germany who would impose her will on the future confederation.
3º. Turkey.
At the beginning of 1916, before the Russian advance in Armenia, the Ottoman Empire throughout its entire length was subjected to the influence of Germany; that influence had even spread to Persia. We have here an event which would have had an extreme importance for the development of the Panislamic movement directed simultaneously against Russia, France and England, if the Anglo-Russian attitude had not recently put a stopper on German intrigues in the Shah’s Empire.
“The establishment of direct relations with Turkey is of inestimable military value,” said the German Chancellor in his speech of December 11th, 1915, “while on the economic side the possibility of importing goods from the Balkan States and from Turkey will increase our supplies in a most satisfactory way” (see Le Temps, 11th December, 1915). It would be a mistake to see in these words the result of a mere bluff, of which the Germans are so often lavish. If the Allies left Germany time to draw from Turkey all the military and economic resources expected from her at Berlin, future events would evidently prove that the Imperial Chancellor’s words deserve to be taken seriously.
To sum up, the Pangerman plan of 1911 provided in the South and South-East for:
| Square Kilometres. | Inhabitants. | |
|---|---|---|
| The absorption of Austria-Hungary | 676,616 | 50,000,000 |
| The establishment of immediate and absolute German influence on the Balkan States | 490,275 | 22,000,000 |
| The establishment of exclusive German influence on Turkey | 1,792,900 | 20,000,000 |
| Total | 2,959,791 | 92,000,000 |
Now, at the beginning of 1916, the plan of 1911 was carried out in the following proportions:
Austria-Hungary had her 676,616 square kilometres occupied (minus the small area in the hands of the Italians), being more or less 100%.
In the Balkans, at the same date, under direct German influence, we have:
| Square Kilometres. | |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 114,105 |
| Serbia | 87,300 |
| Montenegro | 14,180 |
| Total | 215,585 |
equalling 43% of the total of the Balkan States’ territory.
In Turkey the German influence was exerted over almost the entire territory, therefore in the proportion of 100%.
If we now add the figures belonging to the three territorial groups aimed at by the 1911 plan in the South and South-East we shall see that Germany has carried out her programme on
| Square Kilometres. | |
|---|---|
| Austria-Hungary | 676,616 |
| Balkans | 215,585 |
| Turkey | 1,792,900 |
| Total | 2,685,101 |
As the total plan aimed at the German direct or indirect seizure of 2,968,791 square kilometres, we see that, considered in that light, the goal of the 1911 plan has been reached in the South and South-East in the proportion of 89%, being roughly nine-tenths.
Now I have shown (pp. 52 and 56) that Germany occupied or controlled early in 1916:
In the West over 90,478 square kilometres.
In the East over 260,000 square kilometres.
We have just seen that in the South and South-East the German plan has been achieved over 2,685,101 square kilometres.
Of course all the territories included in that last figure are far from having the same value, especially those of part of Turkey, but in that figure Austria-Hungary alone claims 676,616 square kilometres, that is, she alone represents a seizure, disguised it may be, yet not less real, which is infinitely more considerable than the German occupations in the West and East.
From these calculations it clearly follows that the part of the Pangerman plan which concerns Austria-Hungary, the Balkans and Turkey, that is, Central Europe and the East, forms by far the main part of the Pangerman scheme. That is an observation of extreme importance for the Allies and for Neutrals, because of the world-wide consequences which flow from the scheme summed up in the formula, “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.” These consequences will be stated in Chapter V.