Paradox in Forecast Yield of Crop per Acre as Indicated by Condition.
A crop may deteriorate in condition during a growing month and yet its yield per acre as forecast by a computation based on the lowered condition may increase. In the average of crop experiences during the growing period a certain crop declines in condition during a certain month by a certain percentage of a normal condition.
For instance, the cotton crop has a record of a deterioration of 3.9% of a normal condition from June 25 to July 25 in the average of the last 10 years. As a matter of fact, however, during this period in 1922 the deterioration in the condition of the cotton crop was only 0.4%. This is clearly a relative improvement because it is less than the usual deterioration of 3.9%. Hence the yield per acre in the forecast for July 25 must be greater than in the forecast made a month earlier, notwithstanding the absolute decline in condition.
Apple-tree tent caterpillars are very numerous in New England and New York this year. Farther south these pests are noticeably less numerous than usual.