II.
I stated at the outset that publicists have maintained a conspiracy of silence on the coming German revolution, because they were afraid to conjure up a sinister spectre, and because they are repelled by a difficult and delicate subject. But there may be another and a more plausible reason for their silence—namely, that most people simply cannot believe in the very possibility of a German revolution. And if you press them to state their definite reasons for such a belief, you will probably find that all the arguments given can ultimately be brought under the four following headings:
1. Militarism and reaction are too deeply rooted in Germany. The reactionary forces are far too strong to leave any chance to a successful revolution.
2. A revolution is impossible under modern conditions of warfare. A few machine-guns, a few crack regiments of the Kaiser’s bodyguard, would at once drench the rebellion in rivers of blood.
3. The Social Democrats, the so-called “revolutionary party,” have themselves repudiated revolutionary methods.
4. The German temperament has not the initiative, the resilience, which are the prime conditions of a successful revolution. The whole German historical tradition is against any revolutionary solution, and any radical reform must be imposed from outside.
Let us carefully and dispassionately examine each of those arguments.