II
In Germany, likewise, every effort has been made to accumulate gold, even though the notes of the Reichsbank were made inconvertible at the beginning of the war. Not only was the requirement to redeem the notes in coin removed, but the regulations regarding a tax upon all notes uncovered by a specie beyond a specified Kontingent were suspended. Thus, restrictions on the limit of note issues do not exist; and they have risen from about $500,000,000 before the war to about $1,500,000,000 (February, 1916), while the stock of coin and bullion has changed from about $300,000,000 to over $600,000,000. That is, the coin, which is mostly gold, is about 40 per cent. of the notes. Here, again there is an obvious tendency to increase and maintain the gold reserves so that Germany may have the means of resuming gold payments at no great time after the close of the war.
The campaign to collect gold from the public and from hoards was remarkable. It was successfully made a test of patriotism to hand in gold in return for Reichsbank notes, and a house-to-house canvass in many places resulted in providing the gold which so signally increased the reserves behind the notes. Of course, the usual international operations for obtaining gold were denied to Germany. It was this campaign which was imitated by France. At the present time, certainly, no thought has ever occurred to Germans that they would not go back to a gold basis.
Nevertheless, Germany has clearly fallen into the same confusion of mind which characterized our own policy in regard to the issue of greenbacks in the Civil War. We confused the monetary with the fiscal functions of the Treasury. So has Germany. Thinking the war would be short and decisive, to be followed by large indemnities levied on her enemies, she had expected to finance her expenditure by temporary expedients. That is, the Government was led into the policy of borrowing through the increase of monetary forms.
It does not change the principle that this increase of paper money was not made solely by Imperial Treasury notes, but by a very large addition to the circulation in the form of Reichsbank notes and Darlehnskassen notes. It was the loans by the Reichsbank to the Government which undoubtedly caused the main increase in the notes of this bank (just as was true of the Bank of France), and the reduction of these issues, and their redemption in gold, will depend directly on the power and readiness of the Government to pay off its obligations to the Reichsbank after the war.
The amount of borrowing by processes which led to an increase of the circulation was necessarily limited; and very soon borrowing through issues of paper money had to be followed by regular fiscal operations in the form of long- or short-term bonds which would not affect the quantity of the circulation. Expenses could not well be met to any extent by current taxation, because taxes were already high, and in the few years before the war, no doubt in anticipation of it, some four or five hundred million dollars in taxes over and above normal taxation had already been levied. In 1913 a non-recurring tax of $250,000,000 had been imposed on the wealthier classes.
In addition a bonded debt, since the war, has been floated to the amount of $10,000,000,000 over and above the existing public debt before the war of about $1,200,000,000. But all these fiscal operations should be, for our present purposes, separated from monetary operations. The carrying of these heavy government debts is a question of the future production of goods, of commerce, and of saving.
Whatever the burden of debts, the gold question is concerned with the mechanism of exchange by which taxes, subscriptions to loans, payments by the Government for munitions and supplies, current purchases of goods by the public, payments to and by banks, are made. At present this medium is paper money depreciated, as in the case of the Reichsbank notes, by nearly 30 per cent. Of course, the Darlehnskassen issues would follow the value set by the notes of the Reichsbank.
It is interesting to mention that the increase of paper money has not been in answer to any need of the public for additional media of exchange; for ordinary business transactions have decreased, and would require a less quantity of money. It was an error not to separate borrowing entirely from monetary issues.
Moreover, as bearing on the maintenance of the gold standard after the war, it is worth noting that the rule requiring the Reichsbank to keep one-third of its note issues covered by gold has not been violated. At last reports (February, 1916) the gold item stood at $613,750,000, as against $1,612,500,000 notes, or about 38.1 per cent. That is, the greatest efforts have been made to concentrate the gold holdings of the nation, including the "war chest" of about $30,000,000, in the reserves of the Reichsbank.
At the same time no gold is paid out in redemption of notes, nor is it allowed to be exported. Some sums have been sent to Holland in a vain attempt to support German exchange in that country; but the difficulty in exchange rates lies deeper than the relative supply of and demand for bills, since the depreciation of German paper money determines the general level about which the fluctuations of exchange due to demand and supply range. In fact, wherever gold is not freely moved in international exchange there are no shipping points, and hence no limits to which exchange can fall short of the discount of the paper in terms of gold.