THE PRICE OF WAR AND THE PRICE OF PEACE
When word was given that the German Empire had declared war, it was known that she had nine hundred thousand men at a cost of two hundred and fifty million dollars on hand. But the mobilization of her several million troops at the end of the first week increased the cost to many times that amount. This did not frighten her, as her chest at Spandau had been swelled from thirty millions to ninety millions. This was enough to last for three months. When it was found out the other day that the war would last for some months longer, the National Bank of Germany, along with many other German banks, raised enough money on bonds to keep Germany going until after Christmas, without making a war loan, though the cost to France and England is somewhat less individually, still it amounts to nearly the same when the two countries are taken together. A conservative cost of the war per day is fifteen millions, of which Germany is said to spent eight millions.
Paul Leroy-Beaulieu, the French economist, estimates that each of the greater belligerents is spending an average equivalent to $200,000,000 monthly.
In presenting these figures to the Academy of Moral and Political Sciences today (October 17th), he said that he considered it probable that the war would continue for seven months from August 1st.
Accordingly, the five greater powers engaged were committed to an expenditure of $7,000,000,000. Each of the smaller states, including Japan, will have expenses of from $600,000,000 to $800,000,000 to meet.
"One might say that the war will cost the fighting powers roughly from $9,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000," M. Leroy-Beaulieu continued. "These figures, which do not take into account the losses of revenue during hostilities, will be met.
"The larger part of the savings of the world will be absorbed by the taking up of national loans, and economic progress will be seriously checked."
These figures are only a small part of the entire cost. It is not unusual to read of thirty to fifty thousand men being slaughtered in one great engagement, and about the same number being taken prisoners.
Germany has in three months already put more than three millions into actual combat, with a reserve of two millions, and she can raise ten millions if necessary. On the other hand, the allies say if Paris is lost it must be retaken; if one million of allied reinforcements are not enough to accomplish it, there will be two millions and three millions.
These numbers represent the flower of European civilization, for only the sane and healthy are valued in war. These men include hundreds of the ablest scientists from the Pasteur Institute in Paris, from the private and government laboratories in Berlin, Frankfurt and Freiburg.
Along with these are the great professors of all the sciences and the liberal arts, many of whom are world-renowned in the great universities of Europe. Included in this magnificent rank and file are the painters, sculptors, musicians, along with the celebrated architects. These men rise to the tens and hundred thousands, and every time one of these men goes down we are reminded of the fact that he may never be replaced, and it will take many centuries to give back a little of the culture and genius they represent.
But the backbone of a nation is its agricultural force. The German farmers and foresters are a pride to their nation. Nearly every one of these has been called or volunteered in the ranks and files, and already many thousands have been food for the cannon and guns. Their wives and children are trying hard to do their part to replace the work, but all they can give is a feeble effort.
The same is true of France, which has the richest fields in the world. Most of the soil yields two harvests. These farmers take wonderful pride in their farms and truck-gardens, and when the great painters, Millet and Corot, dedicated their genius, they found worthy subjects for their brush. I have traveled through miles of this farmland in France, and its beauty was a splendid poem of what God had helped man to do. Much of the rich vineyard and champagne country has been destroyed by war and neglect, and it will take years of hard toil before it can be repaired.
When this war was less than two months old, whole towns, such as Louvain, Bruges and Rheims had been laid in waste. This destruction has meant the loss of thousands of homes, public buildings, churches and cathedrals, and priceless works of art.
It has also meant the destruction of many miles of railroad, river and ocean transportation, and the closing of thousands of factories.
It has called forth a sudden demand for certain quantities of ammunition, horses, wagons, hospital supplies, fuel, food and clothing, with a great increase in prices on these products.
Credit, which has been the natural and easiest way to carry on business between individuals and nations, has been put at naught. As a result, paper and silver have depreciated in value, and people begin to want gold, for in war gold is the only medium of exchange one can be sure of. Unfortunately, at the present time, there is not enough gold to do the world's business, and owners of securities, day after day, have been trying to sell their stocks and bonds for gold.
In many countries the governments have had to declare moratorium, which means that none need pay their rent and debts until further notice.
The world's trade has been paralyzed; as a result, most of the stock exchanges of the world have had to shut down. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade are included in this number, because if they kept open the foreign countries would exchange their shares and bonds for gold, and much of our gold would be carried to the other side.
Because of our added diplomatic responsibilities abroad, we have had to raise one million dollars, and also two and a half millions for the Americans stranded on the other side. Many of our factories have closed because they dealt in a heavy export trade and for which at present there is no demand. Most noticeable in these trades are the manufactures of cotton, of metal, agricultural and other machinery, copper and lubricating oils. Many others of our industries are without the goods which they import from abroad, including silks, wines, hides and skins, dyes, nitrate of soda, china, etc.
This war has been such a jar to industrial conditions that many manufacturers are reducing their daily output considerably, while others who have a capital are afraid to invest, and are hoarding it in the banks.
Though it is impossible to say how long this war will last, one thing is sure, the loss to trades the world over is great and will increase as time goes on. Worse still than the loss of trade and productive labor is the fact that actual capital is being destroyed, being really burned up.
When the war is over there will be an enormous war debt to pay, and the loans on money will be high. This destruction of wealth and property means that many of the countries of the world will be poor for fifty years at least, and the value of railroad and other stocks in America and Europe will depreciate.
When the men of the world return to work, there will be a great fall in prices because of the greater amount of productive work, and it may result in a fall, at least a temporary fall in wages, though wages will increase after things are once more established. This war may be a boon to the financial and industrial life of our country and give us many new marts of trade in commerce, but while the war lasts it will mean financial strain and hard times in many industries. It certainly will cripple European life, civilization and culture for fifty years.
The game of war is a dangerous and expensive one; it means the building of great war-boats, torpedoes and other submarines, as well as air-destroyers, along with the manufacture of bombs, mines, powder, etc. This war shows that the game is being played on such colossal scale that it may take many millions every year to add to the army, navy and air-craft. It is not to be forgotten that a great man-of-war costs from three to five million dollars, and a good torpedo boat many hundred thousands. The shooting of a cannon ball of a siege-gun means an expenditure of three thousand dollars for each fire, and it takes four shots to pierce a heavy fortification. The siege-gun can only be used about thirty times, and then it is useless. If this game of war is to be continued, it will mean the burning up of capital, depriving men and women of every luxury and many necessities for much of the energy of the world, and no less of the money must be used to that end. Do you not hear a song more beautiful than the cries and groans of war? Do you not hear the call of life and creation, the making of more homes and the caring for those homes? Many hundred years ago men knew the game of war and practiced it, because they were savages, and in this way earned their livelihood. It was only after they rose from savages and barbarians to civilized men that they laid their bows and arrows aside to cultivate the arts of peace. On all sides are seen results of this work—in busy factories, in the laying of cables, in the building of railroads, in their engineering feats, and in the stretching of wires overhead. Their towns grew until they became cities and capitals, made splendid by fine pavements and sidewalks, adorned with many handsome public buildings, gates, fountains, statues, etc. A testimony of all this beauty and energy is seen in such capitals as Berlin, Paris, London and Washington. These cities have given pleasure to millions of people, and this beauty has had large commercial value to these countries. These capitals are a pride to the people who live there, and a never-forgotten pleasure to those who have spent happy days visiting their libraries, picture galleries, museums and gardens. Two of these cities, Berlin and Paris, are splendid examples of what can be done where there is plenty of civic pride. Berlin is a symbol of law and order in its large, well-kept streets, splendid gardens and imposing public buildings. Paris is a woman's city—it breathes with joy and artistic grace. This note is symbolized on a sunny afternoon at the Place de la Concorde, and in the Bois in the springtime, when you see thousands of happy children at play.
These two cities, along with our own beautiful capital adorned with its many handsome avenues, public buildings and private mansions, testify for uplift and civic pride. It will be impossible to have many beautiful cities and to improve our civic conditions if we go on playing this awful game of war, which means the destruction of capital and what man has made. But if we disarm and make other nations disarm after gratifying the most immediate needs, there will be plenty of money left for libraries, great and small, libraries for the city, and libraries for the town, for museums and galleries, for public universities, for parks and gardens adorned with statues and fountains, for the building of bridges and the making of good roads. These are the things that are beautiful and worth while. They are the complement to nature's work and God's work, and the sun will glorify them during the day and the stars will bless them at night, for creation and not destruction is the purpose of this universe.