WEATHER PREDICTIONS.
To predict with any great accuracy what the weather will be from day to day is a somewhat complicated problem, and, as all of us have reason to know, weather predictions made by those who have the matter in charge and are supposed to know all about it often fail to come to pass. The real trouble is that they do not know all about it. There are so many conditions existing that are outside of the range of barometers, thermometers, anemometers, and telegraphs that no one can tell just when some of these unknown factors will step in to spoil our predictions.
In very many cases, perhaps in a large majority of them, the predictions made by the weather bureau substantially come to pass. It has been stated in former chapters that the changes of weather accompany the movements of what are called cyclones and anti-cyclones, the cyclone being accompanied by low barometric pressure and the anti-cyclone by a higher one. The winds of the cyclone move spirally around the center of lowest depression with an upward trend, the motions being in a direction reversed to that of the hands of a clock. In the centers of high pressure the current is downward instead of upward and the direction of the wind around it is opposite to that around the low-pressure area. The fundamental factor in predicting the weather is the direction of movement of these areas of low pressure. In almost all cases the direction of movement is from the west to the east, but not always in a straight line. These movements, however, are classified so that after the direction has become established one can predict with considerable accuracy as to whether it will move in a curved or a straight line. By movement we do not refer to the direction of the wind at any particular point, but the onward movement of the whole cyclonic system, which is usually from twenty-five to thirty miles an hour, but in some cases the speed is much greater.
Not only does the upward movement of the whole system vary, but the velocity of the wind around any given cyclonic center varies. There are about eleven classes of cyclones that appear in the United States, each class having its own path of movement and origin. A large number of these appear to originate north of the Dakotas, and move directly east to the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Three other classes originate on about the same line, a little west,—say, north of Montana,—moving first in a southeasterly direction, passing over the center of Lake Michigan and bending northerly through Lake Ontario and finally landing in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Two other classes start at the same point, one of them going as far south as Cincinnati, and the other as far south as Montgomery, Ala., and both turning at these points northeasterly to the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Two other classes originate in Colorado, one moving in a northeasterly direction slightly curved, and the other directly east. Still others have their origin farther south in the Gulf of Mexico, and move in a northeasterly direction. Very rarely they originate in the Atlantic east of Savannah, moving first in a northwesterly direction, but finally bending to the northeast.
Every day there is a weather map made up showing the locations of the high and low barometers, direction of wind, lines of equal pressure, as well as those of temperature. By study from year to year all of these phenomena have become systematized, so that by tracing an area of low barometer from its origin in its progress easterly it is soon seen to fall under one of these classes and we are able to predict about what its course will be. Knowing the speed of its movement as well as the velocity of wind and all the conditions attending it, taken in connection with the weather conditions in the region for which the prediction is made, an expert can ordinarily forecast with some degree of accuracy. After all that can be said, however, weather predictions based upon maps are and have been far from satisfactory. One who has been a close student of local conditions for a number of years will often predict with as great accuracy as the weather bureau. Areas of low pressure are followed sooner or later by a fall of temperature; this is especially true in the winter months. Sometimes this fall is very marked, and then it is called a cold wave. These sudden changes of temperature are not thoroughly understood, but are supposed to be due partly at least to rapid radiation of heat into the upper regions, as the clear atmosphere which usually attends areas of high pressure is favorable to such a condition. Undoubtedly, too, there are dynamic causes, forcing the colder air from the upper regions to the earth, when it immediately flows off toward an area of low barometer.
Long-time predictions are purely guesses. They sometimes guess on the right side, and this gives them courage to make another. It is an old saying that "all signs fail in dry weather." In time of a drought it is true that the indications which at ordinary times would be surely followed by a rain are of no value. When a season is once established, either as a rainy season or a dry season, it is likely to persist in this character until a change comes that is produced by the movement of the sun in its course northerly and southerly, and the change produced from this cause requires several weeks of time.
If accurate weather predictions could be made for a long time in advance, or for even a week, they would be of incalculable value. But it is doubtful if ever this will be brought about, as there are too many necessarily hidden factors which enter into the calculations. If stations could be established all over the oceans with sufficient frequency, and an equal number at a sufficient altitude in the air, I have no doubt that much that is now mysterious might be made plain.