IV. EXPANSION OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE DURING THE CENTURY.
In the introductory paragraph of this paper it was stated that the commercial progress of the past hundred years is one of the salient features of the history of the century; and, in contrasting the commerce of a hundred years ago with that of the present, a few figures were cited that indicated in a general way the growth that the foreign trade of Great Britain and the United States has enjoyed. The expansion of international trade during the century merits fuller presentation and analysis.
Accurate figures for the whole world’s trade are not obtainable for the earlier years; and if it were possible to present comparative statistics of the international trade of the world, as a whole, the comparisons would not be so instructive as those which present the progress of the commerce of those countries which rank highest among trading nations. Accordingly it will be most profitable to confine our statistics and analytical study to the commerce of Great Britain, Germany, France, and the United States.
The progress which the commerce of the United Kingdom has made during the century is shown by the following table, giving the imports, exports, and total trade for the years 1800, 1839, 1897, and the annual average for alternate quinquennial periods between 1855 and 1890.
TABLE SHOWING GROWTH OF COMMERCE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM.
| Years. | Imports. | Exports. | Total Trade. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1800 | $148,876,000 | $210,240,000 | $359,116,000 |
| 1839 | 300,474,000 | 321,564,000 | 622,038,000 |
| 1856–60 | 890,723,000 | 604,854,000 | 1,495,577,000 |
| 1866–70 | 1,425,936,000 | 914,586,000 | 2,340,522,000 |
| 1876–80 | 1,862,775,000 | 980,818,000 | 2,843,593,000 |
| 1886–90 | 1,897,352,000 | 1,453,695,000 | 3,351,047,000 |
| 1897 | 2,194,932,524 | 1,431,598,345 | 3,626,530,869 |
During the first four decades of the century, the growth of the commerce of the United Kingdom, though considerable, was not rapid,—the figures for 1839 showing an increase of 73 per cent over those for 1800,—but during the fifth, sixth, and seventh decades the progress was phenomenal. The value of the exports in 1873, as compared with 1839, shows a gain of 379 per cent, and the total foreign trade increased nearly 450 per cent; that is, it was five and a half times as much in 1873 as it was thirty-four years previous. Since 1880, the quantities of imports and exports have largely increased, but the fall in prices has been such as to make the increase in the total value comparatively small.
The commerce of the German States during the nineteenth century did not grow very rapidly until after 1850. During the early part of the century the great Continental wars rendered commerce nearly impossible. Peace was restored in 1815, but the German States had neither political nor commercial unity. Each State had a tariff which applied against all other States. Gradually a Zollverein, or customs union, grew up, which, by 1854, had come to include all the German States except Austria, Holstein, Mecklenburg, Lauenburg, and the three Hanse towns, Hamburg, Lübeck, and Bremen. In 1866, the North German Federation was organized, and this paved the way for the formation of the German Empire in 1871. The Zollverein made commercial progress possible, and political unity gave it a great impulse.
The statistics of the German trade before the establishment of the Zollverein are very meagre. A German authority, Otto Huebner, estimates the value of the total import and export trade of the German States to have been $309,019,200 in 1850, and $504,988,200 in 1855. The value of the imports of Hamburg, the chief port of Germany, rose from an annual average of $92,320,050 for the five-year period 1851–55, to $157,660,472 during the half decade 1866–70. The growth of Germany’s foreign commerce during the past twenty years has been phenomenal, and her trade is now second only to that of Great Britain. In 1881, the imports were valued at $704,904,000, and the exports at $707,978,000, being slightly more than the imports; whereas, by 1890, the imports had risen to $986,641,000, and the exports to $792,620,000, a sum nearly a hundred million dollars less than the value of the imports. The foreign trade of the country, particularly in imports, has continued its rapid growth since 1890, the figures for 1897 being, imports $1,231,756,862, and exports $977,447,198, a total trade of $2,209,204,060.
The foreign trade of France at the beginning of the nineteenth century consisted of $80,500,000 worth of imports and $59,000,000 of exports, a total of $139,500,000. The Continental wars, up to 1815, were even more disastrous to French trade than they were to German; but with the restoration of peace, commercial progress began, and between 1815 and 1831 the total trade increased from $119,200,000 worth to $168,152,000 worth. The growth by decades since 1830 has been as follows: In 1840, the value of the total foreign trade was $278,383,200; in 1850, $358,748,400; in 1860, $805,659,200; in 1871, $1,242,765,600; in 1880, $1,640,712,300; and in 1890, $2,003,557,516. These figures show that the rapid expansion of French commerce began about 1850. The highest point was reached in 1891; but since then there has been a slight falling off in the total trade, due to a decrease in imports. In 1891, the value of the imports was $1,155,973,310; in 1897, $991,537,500. The exports were valued at $920,839,130 in 1891; and at $926,998,300 in 1897. The total trade for these years was $2,076,812,440 for 1891, and $1,918,535,800 for 1897.
During the first quarter of the century France had a strong balance of trade in her favor: that is, she sold more commodities than she bought; and between 1825 and 1840 the exports and imports about balanced each other; but since that date, with the exception of the years 1871 to 1875, when the huge war indemnity was paid, the balance of trade had been unfavorable, as would naturally be expected of a country such as France, whose people are extensively engaged in manufacturing. France, as well as the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, and other European countries, imports raw materials and food in large quantities.
The decline in the value of French trade, though due to falling prices rather than to a decrease in the quantities of commodities, has given the French people much concern. It is not probable, however, that this decline is due to permanent causes. The population and industries of France have not reached a stationary stage; they are going to increase and cause a natural growth in the country’s foreign commerce. The commercial progress of France, however, can hardly be so rapid as that of Germany and the United States. These are the countries whose commercial vitality is strongest, and of these two countries, the United States possesses greater natural resources and larger possibilities, industrial and commercial. The progress of the commerce of the United States merits a somewhat closer survey than has been given its three leading rivals in trade.