OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.

Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and forming part of “An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade.” Published in 1699.

The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any other person.

With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.

He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.

From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase—

That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth about 400,000.

That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000.

That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.

That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.

That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:—

Anno Domini. Number of people. Increase every hundred years.
1300 2,800,000
1400 3,300,000 440,000.
1500 3,840,000 540,000.
1600 4,620,000 780,000.
1700 5,500,000 880,000.
1800 6,420,000 920,000.
1900 7,350,000 930,000.
2000 8,280,000 930,000.
2100 9,205,000 925,000.
2200 10,115,000 910,000.
2300 11,000,000 885,000.

Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls per annum.

But whereas the yearly births of the kingdomare about 1 in 28.95, or

190,000 souls.

And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or

170,000 souls.

Whereby the yearly increase would be

20,000 souls.

It is to be noted—

Per ann.

1.

That the allowance for plagues and great mortalities maycome to at a medium

4,000

2.

Foreign or civil wars at a medium

3,500

3.

The sea constantly employing about 40,000, may precipitatethe death of about

2,500

4.

The plantations (over and above the accession offoreigners) may carry away

1,000

11,000 per annum.

Whereby the net annual increase may be but

9,000 souls.

That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.

The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls.
The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by procreation 2,000 souls.
But London and the bills of mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls.

So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s net increase.

Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to the following scheme

Vide Scheme A.

Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 children.

Whereby it follows—

1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more prolific than the country.

2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster pro rata than the country.

3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children than the country marriages seem to be—

(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.

(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.

(3) From a greater intentness on business.

(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.

(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.

(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.

He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:—