FREIGHT TRAFFIC.

The gross traffic receipts of the railways of the United States are divided between freight and passenger business in very nearly the proportion of three to one in favor of the freight traffic. For this reason, and because the data are still more largely available on the same side, the freight service receives herein the fuller treatment.

Reduction of Freight Rates.—On the opposite page is a chart delineating the fluctuations in freight rates since 1870. To one not familiar with the subject the picture presented is a most remarkable one. It looks as though the roads are all in a mad scramble to see which can reach the bottom of the hill first. To railway managers the picture is a painful reminder of a serious struggle, the end of which no one can yet predict.

The lines selected are representative lines of the east and west divisions of the country, north of the Ohio River, where the great number of competing roads has induced sharp competition.

The history of the averages is very clear, and it is easy to see that they are steadily approaching common ground, for while in 1870 the eastern average marked almost exactly one cent six mills, the western marked two cents four mills, a separation of eight mills; in 1888 they recorded seven mills and a trifle over nine mills, a separation of about one-quarter of the 1870 record.

Wheat Rates.—The chart below repeats the lesson of the larger chart as to reduction of rates. The persistency with which water rates have kept below rail rates, emphasizes the fact that wherever water-ways exist, they are stubborn competitors for such freight traffic as will not suffer by the longer time required for the journey.

Average Freight Rates per Bushel of Wheat from Chicago to New York.

The Freight Haul.—It costs as much to load and unload a train that hauls its freight ten miles as it does one that carries it a thousand miles. In other words, the longer the haul the less the proportional cost to the carriers. The great extension of long lines westward in the last few years naturally raises the question whether the average freight haul has increased. The largely diminished rates suggest that probably producers have been led thereby to ship both agricultural and manufactured products greater distances to market. One or both of these conditions may have operated favorably for some roads, but, plausible as the theories seem, the facts prove that neither of them is supported in a study of the average haul of the country. The available figures permit us to go back only to 1882. Within that period the little chart given herewith delineates the fluctuations, but indicates no permanency in either direction. It is a matter of regret that in this, as in many other studies, the history is not available for earlier years, as the more extended the view the better the judgment of such questions becomes.

Average Number of Miles each Ton of Freight was Hauled.

Empty Freight Trains.—One of the considerable items of expense in the freight traffic is that of returning empty cars to their point of starting. Just how large an item this is depends chiefly upon the demands of the population at either end of the operating line for the product of the population at the opposite end. Thus the carriage of the great agricultural product of the West to feed the denser population of the East, and for export to foreign countries, may or may not be met by the demand of the western people for the manufactures of the East and the imports from foreign countries arriving at the eastern seaboard. It is scarcely probable that any line, short or long, running east and west or north and south, finds its traffic in opposite directions balanced.

Percentage of East-Bound and West-Bound Freight carried by the Lake Shore and Michigan Southern Railway Co.

An interesting study of this problem is presented in the accompanying chart, the road selected for the illustration being one of the large carriers between Chicago and Buffalo. The upper chart-line marks the proportion of freight carried from west to east, while the lower line (at the top of the shaded part of the diagram) marks the portion carried from east to west. It is readily seen that in 1877 the west-bound freight was less than half as much as the east-bound, for they stand 30.8 per cent, and 69.2 per cent., respectively; and in 1878 the difference is still greater. From that year, however, there has been great improvement, so that now it would appear that there is on that road a much diminished need for hauling empty cars. The history of the Pennsylvania Road is similar to that shown in the chart, but the ratios have not come so nearly together. That of the New York Central & Hudson River Road shows very little change in the ratios since 1870, and all the time both these roads report a very large excess of east-bound freight.

Profit per Ton per Mile.

Freight Profits.—The change in rates are of great moment to the producer; that of profits is the important one to the carrier. No matter how great the reduction of rates, if the reduction of expense is as great, the profits are not disturbed. This question can be studied best by examining the figures which measure the actual profits. But few corporations furnish such figures, and the two whose history is delineated on the accompanying chart are among those giving the most readily available data. It will be seen that the reduction of profits is no less remarkable than the reduction of rates, which shows that the reduction of rates has far exceeded that of expense of carriage; for, had the reduction of expenses kept pace with that of rates, the profits would have remained level. As it is, the reduction of profits in the history of these roads, as shown, is from about six mills per ton per mile in 1870, to about two mills in 1888. These two roads are probably good representatives of the experience of the general freight service of all railways north of the Ohio River. If so, the prospect of the future of freight traffic is not cheerful.