GENERAL WORLD SITUATION
The districts with coal for export have been chiefly the British Isles, United States and Germany; there might be included also New South Wales, British South Africa, Japan, French Indo-China, Canada, New Zealand and Spitzbergen. China, with her large reserves, may become an exporter in the future; or, if her industries develop, may find use for her coal at home.
Anthracite of good grade is found in large amounts in Pennsylvania and South Wales only. Poorer supplies are known in Germany, France, Italy, Indo-China, and also in the states of Colorado and New Mexico.
Coking coals in large amounts are found in the eastern United States, Germany and the United Kingdom and are coked extensively. Smaller amounts of coke are made in France, Belgium and old Austria. Relatively very small amounts are made in Canada, Chile, New South Wales, Japan and Spain.
The coal reserve of a country bears no direct relation to its present production, for the latter, which has to be developed in competition with other countries, depends upon relative facility of transportation and proximity of iron-ore deposits, which render steel making and other industries economically feasible.
Great Britain is particularly favored through the possession of high-grade coal immediately adjacent to coast ports, as in the North of England, Scotland and Wales. Hence Great Britain became a great exporter of coal. First, coal for heating purposes traveled by sea from Newcastle to London; next coal was carried to European ports, and finally to all parts of the world. The possession of easily worked iron deposits in the north of England and the discovery that iron could be smelted with coke rapidly accelerated the development of the coal industry in Great Britain, so that by the middle of the nineteenth century Great Britain had a commanding lead.
No other country possesses high-grade coal in such quantity immediately adjacent to the coast, and this fact has enabled Great Britain to remain the great exporter. The average length of haul of export coal, from mine to ship, is less than 20 miles. In Germany coal for ocean export must be hauled 118 miles to 168 miles; in the United States from 150 to 375 miles, except for Washington coals, which are within 40 miles of tidewater, but are small in quantity and of indifferent quality.
After the war with France in 1871, when Germany annexed Alsace and Lorraine, the coal industry of the German Empire developed with tremendous rapidity, largely through the discovery—from the investigations of Thomas, of Great Britain—of a method of utilizing the high-phosphorus iron ores of German and French Lorraine, and the nearness of these iron-ore deposits to the high-grade bituminous coals of Westphalia. The coal industry was also developed by fostering the export trade with adjacent countries, which have small coal resources or none, this trade nearly all going by rail.
However, the long rail haul and the correspondingly high cost of mining have retarded the ocean export business of Germany, in spite of the fostering care of the government. With the transfer of practically all its iron deposits and its important Lorraine potash deposits, as well as the ownership of its Saar coal mines, to France, and the possible loss of its Upper Silesian coal and zinc deposits to Poland, the balance of commercial prosperity, as well, may be handed over.
No other countries except the United States, Canada, Australia and China have reserves for extensive export trade. In Canada the coals are mostly inland, and those near the coast, as on Vancouver Island and in Nova Scotia, are limited in quantity and difficult to mine, so that export business is perforce restricted.
One change that seems likely is a rapid increase in output of coal in China. The resources are enormous, the reserves of the higher classes of coal being surpassed by those of no country but the United States. The ambitious and aggressive Japanese, with their strategic neighboring location, have given every indication that they will take advantage of an opportunity to develop such a resource. It may be a question how soon Chinese coal will be developed, but great changes are inevitable when development begins. Some of the coal fields are so near the coast and have coals of such good quality as to permit an extensive development of export business in the Orient.
Australia, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, has coal resources that are considerable, in comparison with the needs of the small population. In New South Wales the coals are excellent and are adjacent or close to harbors, so that the coal is extensively supplied for bunkerage and export trade to the South Pacific and has become a large factor in the ocean trade of that part of the world.
A large factor in the coal trade of the Pacific Ocean is the carrying of coal as return cargo. This is also important in South American trade. South Africa during the war sent considerable coal to the western Mediterranean, but its coal cannot be a large factor in ocean trade in normal times.
Of all the continents South America is the poorest in coal resources. There is coal in Brazil and Chile and other South American countries, but it is difficult to reach and the fields so far known do not give promise of being able to take care of the needs of the countries in which they occur. The total annual production of South America is less than two million tons, mostly from Chile. It is probable that for the next generation South America will continue to import coal as it has in the past, to the extent of 15 million tons or more per annum, although developments in Brazil are now promising for that country’s future supply. For estimates of reserves, see [Table 5].
Summary.
—By way of summary, it may be said that the United States leads the world in coal resources; moreover, its resources are most immediately available, because of their shallow depth and general undisturbed (geologic) condition and their accessibility through railway systems. This is particularly true in the Appalachian region, which contains by far the best coal, is the nearest to the coast, and hence is the most available for ocean trade. On the other hand, the average haul to export points, as already noted, is far greater than that of Great Britain and greater than that of Westphalia; but to offset this the coal has been and can be mined more cheaply than in either Westphalia or Great Britain. The resources of Upper Silesia are large, and the coal is easily mined, but the output will all be needed for central Europe. As regards both quality and quantity, Pennsylvania anthracite is unique; nevertheless, the home needs will continue to be a brake on extensive exports. United States steam and coking coals available for shipment average a little poorer than the corresponding coals of Great Britain, but are superior to the German coals.
The total resources of Great Britain, possible, actual, and probable, are only 190,000 million tons, as contrasted with 423,000 million tons in the old German Empire and 3,838,000 million tons in the United States.
Probable Future Production.
—The possible depletion of coal resources is of course important in considering the future, but it can be safely stated that in none of the principal fields now being mined are the resources so depleted that the output therefrom will be reduced for another generation at least.
Of the great coal-producing countries, Great Britain, with its increasing rate of production, most nearly approaches the point of ultimate depletion, but that point has been variously placed at one hundred to several hundred years in the future, much depending upon whether with better methods of use the output will continue to increase at the same rate as in the past. Meantime, certain areas in Great Britain with shallower coal beds will be depleted much sooner and the remaining coal will become more and more difficult to get, because of the increasing depth of mining, which in turn will cause a continually increasing cost.
Although the exhaustion of coal is a distant prospect, there are clear signs of the approaching exhaustion of certain grades of coal. It has been estimated that the output of American anthracite will seriously decline in 60 to 100 years. Probably this will result in a change in practice, the use of coke, and other methods of house heating. If the rate of production continues to increase, high-grade American steam coal, New River and similar grades, will probably be exhausted in a little over 150 years. American coking coal of the best Connellsville quality is of equally short duration. British coal of similar high grade may last longer than American, as the production rate is less rapid, even though the total American coal should last much longer than the British.