GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION
The geographical distribution of petroleum is as wide relatively as its geologic range. The oil fields of present commercial significance are situated, in the order of their importance as contributors to the world’s production of petroleum in 1917, in the United States, Russia, Galicia, Mexico, Dutch East Indies, India, Persia, Japan and Formosa, Roumania, Peru, Trinidad, Argentina, Egypt, Germany, Canada, Venezuela and Italy. Small quantities of petroleum have also been reported from Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Porto Rico, Bolivia, Chile, Spain, Arabia, China, Australia, Papua, Philippine Islands, Nigeria, Belgian Congo, Gold Coast, Madagascar, and elsewhere. The geographical distribution of petroleum in the world is shown on the accompanying map. ([Plate I].)
Plate I.—Geographical distribution of the producing petroleum fields of the world. By John D. Northrop.
In the opinion of the author the most conspicuous developments of the world’s supply of petroleum in the next decade will take place in the countries that border the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The trend in this direction is unmistakable. From 1913 to 1917, the annual production of petroleum in Mexico increased from 21,000,000 barrels to 56,000,000 barrels, and the potentialities of future production in that country have been demonstrated to be almost beyond comprehension. The output, originally considered valuable only as a source of fuel oil, is now yielding, by modern refining methods, increasingly important percentages of illuminating oils and gasoline. The only obstacles to enormously increased production are unsettled political conditions and inadequate facilities for marine transportation. These obstacles will doubtless be overcome within the next few years, and barring unforeseen contingencies Mexico will soon rank second among the oil-producing countries of the world.[2] Judged by the results of exploratory work already done in Venezuela and Colombia, both of those countries are destined to contribute appreciably to the world’s supply of petroleum within the next decade. Recently Colombia has given enough evidence of ability to furnish high-grade petroleum from wells of large individual capacity to warrant the large interests holding concessions there to exert every effort to overcome the adverse natural conditions that have so long barred the way to exploitation. Enough drilling has already been done in Venezuela to demonstrate that the resources of heavy-gravity asphalt-base petroleum in that country are large, and the recent installation of a modern petroleum refinery for the treatment of these oils on the island of Curacao, off the Venezuelan coast, has provided the market necessary to active field development.
[2] Mexico ranked second in 1918 and 1919.
In Trinidad the production of petroleum exceeds 1,500,000 barrels a year and has doubled in the last few years. With the increased facilities for ocean transport of petroleum that are becoming available, a large output is assured.
Cuba is not expected to become an important producer of petroleum, and present knowledge concerning the petroleum resources of the Central American countries is not such as to warrant the belief that oil fields of material consequence will be developed in any of them.
Petroleum production in the United States is expected to reach its maximum within the next two or three years and to decline steadily thereafter, although this country is expected to remain the leading oil-producing country of the world for the greater part, if not all, of the coming decade.
As regards those oil-producing countries of North and South America that have not been already mentioned, no significant changes in their present status are anticipated.
The petroleum resources of Russia (including Asiatic Russia) are believed sufficient to assure that country retaining its position as the leading producer of petroleum in the Eastern Hemisphere far beyond the next decade. During the last few years the output has been obtained under increasing difficulties, and as a consequence there has been no measure either of present productive capacity or of potentialities. Concerning the future of Russia as a source of petroleum Arnold[3] says: “Such large areas, both in European and Asiatic Russia, yield unmistakable evidence of the presence of oil in large quantities that it is to this country, among those of Europe and Asia, to which the future must look for a supply.”
[3] Arnold, Ralph: “The World’s Oil Supply”: Report Am. Min. Cong., 19th annual session, 1917, pp. 485-486.
Russia being endowed with petroleum reserves, both proved and prospective, of great magnitude, the ultimate position of that country as the leading oil-producer of the world seems reasonably assured. Its immediate future is too intimately dependent on the progress from political turmoil to warrant a forecast.
The oil fields of both Roumania and Galicia are believed to have passed their maximum yield, and the possibilities of opening new fields of consequence in those countries are not considered large enough to justify a forecast of anything but a moderate decline of production in future years. No material change in the status of the negligible oil fields of Italy or of Alsace is anticipated at any time in the future.
With regard to the situation in Asia, the writer believes that the next decade will witness a steady increase in the output of petroleum in India, and the probable development of one or more important oil fields in Persia and possibly of fields in Asia Minor, Turkestan and China. In Oceania the same period will doubtless witness a material increase in the production of petroleum in Japan and Formosa and in the Dutch East Indies, together with the possible opening of new fields in Papua. Africa will doubtless receive considerable attention from oil operators in the next ten years, but on the basis of available evidence the results obtained in that period will probably not be large enough to affect the petroleum situation of the world.