PROBABLE CHANGES IN KNOWN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE NEAR FUTURE
Specific predictions regarding changes in the geographical distribution of the sources of the world’s gold seem valueless. During the last few years the gold production of the principal fields has decreased. Aside from any decline due to the war and the attending scarcity of labor and high mining costs, it seems probable that the gold output of the world has reached its zenith and that further decline is to be expected unless new ore bodies are added to known reserves or unless some revolutionary method of extracting gold from the low-grade ores is discovered.
Although the leading fields, South Africa, the United States, and Australia, seem to have reached or passed their period of greatest output, there are a number of fields in unsettled and unexplored regions of the world which may be expected to show increased production. The possibilities of Siberia have already been mentioned, and it is the opinion of many engineers that this region will eventually rival South Africa. South America has produced an enormous quantity of gold, chiefly alluvial, and is expected to yield an increased output in the future. The future of South Africa is problematical.
During the last half century the greatly increased gold production has been due largely to the exploitation of the low-grade properties, this being made possible by improvements in mining and metallurgy. It seems, however, that this development has reached a point where excessive labor costs prevent the use of ores of a still lower grade.
In general, therefore, the gold output of the world may be expected to remain static or to decline, at least until the level of prices is so changed that it is considered profitable to expend capital in the prospecting and developing of regions hitherto unexplored.