JAMES B. MACDONALD

Mesopotamia important to Great Britain.

It is perhaps not generally realized how important the future of Mesopotamia is to the British, or why they originally sent an expedition there which has since developed into a more ambitious campaign. Ever since the Napoleonic period British influence and interests have been supreme from Bagdad to the Persian Gulf, and this was the one quarter of the globe where they successfully held off the German trader with his political backing.

Great Britain's war with Persia.

British steamer on the Tigris.

It will be recalled that early in Queen Victoria's reign Great Britain engaged in a war with Persia, and landed troops at Bushire in assertion of their rights. Ever since they have policed the Persian Gulf, put down piracy, slave and gun-running, and lighted the places dangerous to navigation. These interests having been entrusted to the Government of India, news affecting them seldom finds its way into Western papers. Previous to the war a line of British steamers plied regularly up the River Tigris to Bagdad, the center of the caravan trade with Persia. The foreign trade of this town alone in 1912 amounted to $19,000,000, and it was nearly all in the hands of merchants in Great Britain or India. Germany exported $500,000 worth of goods there annually. Basra, farther down the river, exports annually about 75,000 tons of dates, valued at $2,900,000. It also does a large export trade in wheat.

An irrigation scheme.

The Persian oil fields controlled by Great Britain.

Native tribes subsidized.

A large irrigation scheme was partly completed before the war, near the ancient town of Babylon, under the direction of a famous Anglo-Indian engineer, Sir William Willcocks. When finished it was to cost $105,000,000, and was expected to reclaim some 2,800,000 acres of land of great productibility. It will, therefore, be seen that Britain had some considerable stake in the country. In addition to this, the British Government, shortly before the war, invested $10,000,000 in acquiring control of the Anglo-Persian oil fields, which is the principal source of supply for oil fuel for their navy. By this means they avoided the risk of great American corporations cornering the supply of oil fuel and holding up their navy. John Bull upon occasion shows some gleamings of shrewdness. This deal is on a par with their purchase of sufficient shares to control the Suez Canal. The Anglo-Persian oil fields are situated across the border in Persia, and the oil is led in pipes down the Karam River valley, a tributary of the combined Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The native tribes in the neighborhood were subsidized to protect the pipe-line, or, rather, to leave it alone.

Russia and Great Britain in Persia.

German railways must end at Bagdad.

During recent years Persia has fallen into decay. Politically she is more sick than "the sick man of the East." The people have a religion of their own and worship the sun, although quite a number of Moslems have settled in their midst. Being cognizant of German designs to create a great Eastern empire in Mesopotamia and Persia, which would threaten India, Egypt, and the Russian East, Britain and Russia came together and formed a kind of Monroe Doctrine of their own. They said, in effect, northern Persia shall be Russia's sphere of influence, and southern Persia shall be Britain's sphere of influence. They both recognized that a great military power, like Germany, permanently established at Bagdad, with aggressive tendencies, would imperil their Eastern dominions, and both were prepared to make it a casus belli—Britain, further, a few years ago informed Germany that the area from Bagdad to the head of the Gulf was her "Garden of Eden," and any attempt to carry German railways south of Bagdad would bring on war. The Emperor William apparently did not mind this opposition by Britain and Russia to his Oriental ambition, provided he could find a passage through the Balkans.

Persian gendarmes officered by Swedes.

Fairy-tales of Turkish conquest.

At the time Britain and Russia came to an agreement regarding Persia they were not on so good a footing with each other as they are to-day. In order that neither should get an advantage over the other, it was decided that the Persian gendarmes—about 6,000 in number—should be officered by neutrals, and, unfortunately as it turned out for the Allies, they mutually chose Swedes. On the outbreak of war neither Britain nor Russia desired that Persia should be brought into it. The German ambassador in Persia, however, had other views, and suborned Swedish officers in command of the Persian gendarmes. Partly by this means, and partly by Turkish agents, a rebellion was brought about within the Russian sphere. Religion had nothing to do with the trouble in Persia. Turkish forces entered Persian Kurdistan and announced that they were on their way to conquer India and the Russian East, while their compatriots would overrun Egypt. These were the fairy-tales with which the Germans had originally enticed the Turks into the war. The Turks were willing to believe them, and apparently did believe them. The responsible Germans had no such illusions, but hoped to attain their ends by causing internal disturbances within India and Egypt. These German canards, put about in war time, have been adopted by some writers in this country as the foundation from which to write contemporary history. It may interest them to know that India possesses the strongest natural frontiers in the world.

Strategy depends on geography.

Strategy nowadays is very largely a matter of geography. Modern armies are circumscribed in their movements by the available means of transportation, whether these be by railroad, river, or roadway, and this means geography applied in giving direction to troop movements.

Geographies of the war area.

Before entering into a review of the combined Anglo-Russian campaign a preliminary survey of the strategical geography of the war area will make the position more clear.

Constantinople once the world clearing-house.

Still the easiest route.

In ancient times the only practical way by road and ferry from Europe to Asia or Africa was by way of the Balkan valleys and across the Bosphorus or Dardanelles. Hence arose the importance of the ferryhouse—Constantinople. That city in those days was the center of the known world and the clearing-house for the merchandise of Asia, Africa, and Europe. From Scutari, on the opposite shore, the overland route meandered across Asia Minor to Aleppo in Syria. Here the sign-post to India pointed down the Euphrates Valley, by way of Bagdad, while that to Egypt and Arabia followed the Levant or eastern shore of the Mediterranean. Between each fork lay the Syrian desert. A glance at the map shows the reason why in those days this was the only practical route, as to-day it is the easiest. The wall of the Ural Mountains, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasian Mountains, and the Black Sea shut out direct communication from Europe to Asia, or vice versa, except by the Constantinople ferry or a sea voyage.

Another practical route.

The road for invasion of Egypt or India.

The Taurus range is the natural frontier of Egypt.

In Asia Minor progress was further barred by the watershed of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers to the south, and the Caucasian Mountains to the east. A practical way was found at the lower elevations of the Taurus and Amanus mountains—two parallel spurs which strike the sea at the Gulf of Alexandretta. This narrow neck of the bottle, as it were, is of enormous military importance alike to the Turks and to the British. Through it must pass any army of invasion by land from Europe or Asia Minor to Egypt or India; and, conversely, through it must pass any invading army from Mesopotamia into Asia Minor. If the British should conquer Mesopotamia and should intend to hold it—as they undoubtedly would—they will have no strategical frontiers until they secure the watershed of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and the Taurus passage. If they secure the latter, Syria, Palestine, and Arabia will fall to them like apples off a tree. It would then be no longer necessary to defend the Suez Canal. The natural frontier of Egypt is the Taurus mountain range. Asia Minor is the real Turkey; the other portions of the empire—MMesopotamia, Syria, Palestine, Arabia, and Turkey in Europe—are only appendages. The eastern door into Asia Minor is Erzerum, and the southern door is the Taurus passage. Turkey can only part with these at the cost of her life. Russia has already captured Erzerum, and the British possess the Island of Cyprus, which commands the head of the Gulf of Alexandretta—twenty miles from the Taurus passage. That is, broadly, the situation.

Aleppo is the starting point of caravan routes.

Near the crossing of the Taurus and Amanus mountains lies the city of Aleppo, the starting-point for the overland caravan routes to Bagdad and India, and also to Damascus, Mecca, and Egypt. Just as surely as pioneer travelers always chose the easiest route, so the railways of to-day follow in their footsteps. The physical features of nature constrained both modern as well as ancient armies to travel the same way. Hence a railway map of the Balkans and of Asiatic Turkey is a first consideration in appreciating the strategical bearings of the Anglo-Russian campaign in Turkey-in-Asia, or the alleged rival Germanic-Turkish schemes for the invasion of Egypt, Persia, and India. Of no less importance is a knowledge of the available sea routes and inland rivers.

Bulgaria and Turkey depend on aid from Germany.

The ability of Bulgaria and Turkey to carry on the war depends on aid from Germany in men, munitions, and money. These allies are the weakest members of the Central Group, and may be the first to give in if circumstances are adverse to their adventure.

The importance of the Balkan railway.

Their sole communication with the Central Powers is by the Balkan railway from the Danube to Constantinople by way of Sofia. If this line is severed, then these nations are out of the game. The Allies have all winter been organizing the defenses of Salonica as a pied-à-terre for such an attack. Should Rumania join the Allies in the spring, then a further attack may be expected from the north, in which Russian troops would join. Turkey is now too preoccupied with her own troubles to be able to assist Bulgaria.

Asia Minor's only important line.

Railway planned from Aleppo to Bagdad.

In Asia Minor the only railway of importance is the trunk line from Scutari, on the Bosphorus, to the Taurus Tunnel, in course of completion near Adana. One branch runs west to Smyrna, and another east to Angora. Beyond the Taurus Tunnel is another in course of completion through the Amanus Mountains. Every person and everything destined for the Bagdad front or for the invasion of Egypt has to be transported over these mountains. So also have rails for the completion of the Aleppo-to-Bagdad railway. These tunnels are expected to be finished this year—when it will be too late. From Aleppo the Syrian railway runs south through Damascus to Medina and Mecca in Arabia. Branches reach the Levant seaports of Tripoli, Beirut, and Haifa. Another railway was started from Aleppo to Bagdad shortly before the war, and construction begun at both ends. We have no reliable information as to how far it has progressed, but the presumption is that there is a large gap between Ras-el-ain and Mosul and between the latter place and Samara.

The city of Aleppo key of railways as once of caravan routes.

It is at once apparent how important the city of Aleppo is as the junction for the three main railways of Asiatic Turkey. Napoleon considered that it was the key to India, because it commanded the caravan routes. To-day it would be more correct to say that Aleppo is the key to the outer approaches to India and Egypt, the inner defenses of which are impregnable.

Reasons for a British army in Egypt.

Vantage points held by Great Britain.

The British maintain a large army in Egypt not so much because it is required there as because it is a most convenient central camp within striking distance of all the battle-fronts in the East. This permits of throwing a large army secretly and unexpectedly where it can be most effective. Similar camps are available at Malta and Cyprus. Any attack on Egypt on a formidable scale would be a veritable trap for the invaders. It will be recalled that when Britain held up the Russian advance on Constantinople, in 1878, she entered into a treaty with Turkey guaranteeing the latter in the possession of Asia Minor (only) against all enemies. The consideration was the lease of the Island of Cyprus, which dominates the Taurus passage. In other words, Britain holds the cork with which she can close the Syrian tube and put the closure on any invasion of India or Egypt from this side. This treaty was abrogated some eighteen months ago, when Turkey declared war on the British Empire. Britain, in consequence, annexed Egypt and Cyprus.

At the outbreak of the war the Indian Government, apparently off their own bat, despatched a small force to the Persian oil fields to seize and hold the pipe-line, which had been tampered with and the supply cut off for a time.

The Turks threaten Basra.

British advance up the Tigris to Kut-el-Amara.

It became necessary to hold in force three triangular points—Basra, Muhammereh, and Awaz. A strong Turkish force, with headquarters at Amara, was equidistant about 100 miles from both Basra and Awaz, and could elect to strike the divided British forces either by coming down the Tigris River to Basra, or by going overland to Awaz. Reinforcements were sent from India, and Amara occupied. The oil fields seemed secure. Then the unexpected happened. A Turkish army came down the Shat-el-Hai—an ancient canal or waterway connecting the Tigris River at Kut-el-Amara with the Euphrates at Nasiriyeh (or Nasdi)—about 100 miles to the west of Basra—and threatened the latter place. (Shat-el-Hai means the river which flows by the village of Hai. Kut-el-Amara means the fort of Amara and is not to be confused with the town of Amara lower down the Tigris River.) This led to the British driving the Turks out of Nasiriyeh and also advancing up the Tigris River from Amara to occupy Kut-el-Amara, where a battle was fought. The Turks were strongly entrenched and expected to hold up the Anglo-Indian troops here, but a turning movement made them retire on Bagdad—about 100 miles to the northwest. It was known that large Turkish reinforcements were on the way to Bagdad and an attempt was made to anticipate them.

General Townshend's attempt to take Bagdad.

General Townshend advanced on Bagdad with less than a division of mixed Anglo-Indian troops—some 16,000 to 20,000 strong. At Ctesiphon he found a Turkish army of four divisions, with two others in reserve, awaiting him. After a two days' indecisive battle, Townshend, recognizing he had insufficient forces, retired on his forward base at Kut-el-Amara. The Arabs in the neighborhood awaited the issue of the battle, ready to take sides, for the time being, with the winner.

The Turks much stronger in numbers.

Secret of European success in Asia.

It says much for the stamina of this composite division that, although opposed throughout by five or six times their number of Turks and Turkish irregulars, the latter were unable to overwhelm them. To the Western mind, unacquainted with the mentality and moral weakness of the Moslem under certain circumstances, this may appear a most foolhardy adventure. To the Anglo-Indian the most obvious thing to do when in a tight corner is to go for the enemy no matter what their numbers. All Europeans in India develop an extraordinary pride in race, and an inherent contempt for numbers. It is the secret of their success there. Most Moslems fight well when posted behind strong natural defenses. In open country, such as Mesopotamia, they do not show to so much advantage. Another trait is that when their line of retreat is threatened they are more timorous than European troops. This weakness will have important bearings on the future of the campaign on the Tigris Valley, because the communications of the Turks are threatened by the Russians far in their rear and in more than one place.

Kut-el-Amara of great strategical importance.

Townshend's camp at Kut-el-Amara is well supplied with stores and munitions, and will soon be relieved. When his retreat was cut off at the bend of the Tigris River he could still have retired safely by following the Shat-el-Hai to Nasiriyeh. There was no thought, however, of retreat, Kut-el-Amara is geographically of great strategical importance, and the British garrison there has served the useful purpose of detaining large forces of the enemy where it was desired they should remain while important Allied developments were taking place in their flank and rear. Most of these Turkish reinforcements were withdrawn from Armenia when the depth of winter appeared to make it impossible for the Russians to break through the lofty hills of Caucasia.

Turks deceived by rumor about Grand Duke Nicholas.

The Grand Duke's strategy.

The rumor, so diligently put about, that the Grand Duke Nicholas had been retired in disgrace, after so ably extricating the Russian armies in Poland, and that he had been sent to Caucasia, served its purpose. The Turks were deceived by it, and sent part of their forces from Armenia to oppose the Anglo-Indian advance on Bagdad and arrived in time to turn the scale after the battle of Ctesiphon. When the Grand Duke fell on the unwary Turks their defeat was complete. Flying from Erzerum, one army made for Trebizond, another for the Lake Van district, and the rest went due west towards Sivas. The Grand Duke's right wing, center, and left are following in the same directions. He has two flying wings further south—one in the Lake Urumia district and the other advancing along the main caravan route from Kermanshah to Bagdad, while the British are furthest south at Kut-el-Amara. It will be observed that the whole of the Allied armies from the Black Sea to Kut-el-Amara are in perfect echelon formation, and it would be a strange coincidence if this just happened—say, by accident. Like the Syrian and Arabian littoral, Mesopotamia is another tube confined within the Syrian desert on the one side and the mountains of Armenia and Persia on the ether. All egress is stopped by the Allies' echelon formation, except by Aleppo.

Possible to cut Turkish Empire in two.

Petrograd advices at the time of writing (March 9th) state that the Grand Duke's main army is making for the Gulf of Alexandretta with intent to cut the Turkish Empire in two. This is not only possible, but highly probable, and the echelon formation of the Allies, together with the configuration of the country, lends itself to such an operation. The British army in Egypt and the British fleet could in such an eventuality coöperate to advantage.

Russians must take Trebizond.

Turks will endeavor to hold Armenian Taurus.

The road that Xenophon traveled.

As a preliminary the Russians must clear their right wing by capturing Trebizond and utilizing it as a sea base. Asia Minor is a high tableland, in shape like the sole of a boot turned upside down, with the highlands of Armenia representing the heel. The Turks, having lost their only base and headquarters at Erzerum, have now to rush troops, guns, and stores from Constantinople to the railhead at Angora and endeavor to rally their defeated forces to the east of Sivas. In the meantime, the Russians will have overrun some 250 miles of Turkish territory before they are held up even temporarily. The Turkish army in Syria will be rushed to Diarbekr to rally their defeated right wing and endeavor to hold the Armenian Taurus Mountains against the Grand Duke's left wing. If the Russians break through here, then all is lost to the Turks in the south. They, however, have a most difficult task before them, because the hills here reach their highest. There is a road of sorts, because we know that Xenophon in ancient times traveled it with his 10,000 Greeks, and the Turks did the same recently, when they sent reinforcements to Bagdad. Both must have traveled light, and the Russians will have to do the same. This means that the Turks on the south will be better supplied with guns than their opponents, who will have to rely once more on their bayonets.

British forces in the south ample.

The Tigris and other available routes.

Plans of the British army.

Russian and British forces would join.

In the extreme south the British have ample force now to carry out their part of the contract. We know that some 80,000 veteran Indian troops have arrived from France, as well as other large reinforcements from India. It is unlikely that these will all proceed up the Tigris River, because sufficient troops are already there who are restricted to a narrow front, owing to the salt marshes between the bend of the river and the Persian mountains. Two other routes are available, the Shat-el-Hai from Nasiriyeh to relieve the garrison at Kut-el-Amara from the south, and the Euphrates River, to attack Bagdad from the southwest, while the Russian flying wing at Kermanshah threatens it from the northeast. The Turkish report of heavy fighting at Nasiriyeh would indicate that one or both of these routes were being taken. Athens reports that Bagdad is about to fall. As it falls, a British flotilla will ascend the Euphrates and make direct for Aleppo. The British army from Kut-el-Amara and the Russians from Kermanshah will, after the fall of Bagdad—which is a foregone conclusion—ascend the Tigris River to Mosul, where they may be expected to get in touch with the other Russian flying wing from the Lake Urumia district. The combined force will then be in a position to force a junction with the Grand Duke's left wing, and then continue their advance on Aleppo.

Turkish army might retire to defend the Taurus passage.

Should the main army of the Grand Duke, as reported, converge on the Gulf of Alexandretta with intent to destroy the Turkish southern army, then the latter would be in a very dangerous position, because their northern army being, as yet, without a base or organization, is not in a position to take the offensive to assist them. If, on the other hand, the Turkish army of the south declines battle at Aleppo and retires to defend the Taurus passage, after abandoning half their Empire to the Allies, the latter will, if they have not previously anticipated it, have a difficult problem to solve as to how they are going to get their large forces in the south over the Taurus range to assist the Grand Duke in the final struggle. The forcing of the Taurus passage will mean fighting on a narrow front and will take time.

So far this campaign had been conducted as one of India's little wars, which come as regularly as intermittent fever.

The Russians enter Armenia and later withdraw.

When Turkey entered the war she reckoned that Russia was so busy on the German and Austrian frontiers as to be unable to meet an attack in her rear. Turkey thereupon concentrated her main armies at Erzerum and invaded Caucasia. The Russians beat them back and entered Armenia, where the inhabitants assisted them. The same cause which led to the retirement from Poland—shortage of ammunition—compelled the Russians also to withdraw from Armenia.

Britain's reverse at Gallipoli.

Contemporary with these events, Britain met with a severe reverse on the Gallipoli peninsula, which likewise injured her prestige in the East.

An Anglo-Russian campaign from Kurna to the Black Sea.

It became a matter of first importance with both Britain and Russia that they should not only reinstate their prestige in the East in striking fashion, but that they should end once and for all time German intrigue and Turkish weakness in the East. These considerations were contributing factors in bringing about a joint war council and an Allied Grand Staff. The latter immediately took hold of the military situation in Asiatic Turkey, and the isolated operations of Britain and Russia in these parts now changed into a great Anglo-Russian campaign stretching from the junction of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers to the Black Sea.

The drama unfolding before us promises to be one of the most sensational in the great world war. The end of the Ottoman Empire appears in sight. Its heirs and successors may be the other great Moslem powers—Britain, Russia, France, and Italy. The last two have yet to be heard from on the western shores of Asia Minor.

The possible future.

The future may see the British in possession of Turkey's first capital, Mosul; the French in possession of their second capital, Konia; the Russians in possession of their third and last capital, Constantinople, and the Italians occupying Smyrna. Each of these powers is a Mohammedan empire in itself; and the greatest Moslem country in the world is the British Empire.

Britain may be stronger than ever in the East.

The Moslems in India not only approve of the idea of removing the Sheik-Ul-Islam, head of the Mohammedan creed, from Constantinople to Delhi or Cairo, under British protection, but the head of their church in India volunteered as a private soldier to fight in France, and is now with the Anglo-Indian army in Mesopotamia. It would seem as if Britain and Russia, at the end of this war, would find themselves stronger than ever in the East.

Great Britain suffered one of her greatest losses during the war on June 7, 1916, when the cruiser Hampshire, on board of which was Earl Kitchener on his way to Russia, was sunk by a German mine or torpedo. Over 300 lives were lost in this disaster. Earl Kitchener had been throughout the war the chief force in raising and training the British army, and to his ability and zeal was due largely the great feats of landing large numbers of British troops in France within a time which in the period of peace would have been considered impossible.