THE MOBILIZATION OF PUBLIC OPINION
BY
JOHN EDWARD OSTER
At present the question that is most prominent before the world is that of peace. Almost everybody whom we meet has some opinion regarding this question which he is ready to express. How has this opinion been formed? It is certainly true that very, very few have thought carefully over this question, or have studied it in a fair unbiased manner. There are wide differences of opinion, and without the slightest doubt there are very good and legitimate reasons for these wide differences. They arise chiefly, perhaps, because of different local circumstances affecting educational conditions, or the conditions of influential classes of society, and a thousand and one other reasons, which may carry more or less weight.
Practically every family has members who were more than once directly affected by the absence of peace—war, and have wished for peace, or without knowing it, had the pacifist spirit. Almost every person is likely to feel a sense of deep injury under the pressure of an unpleasant burden, and naturally thinks the issue or whatever it is must be fought out with iron and blood. An opinion of some kind is there, which is made up mostly of sentiment, based upon a somewhat erroneous knowledge of some few facts in the situation. No matter which side of the fence individuals are on, they have gained their ideas mostly from newspapers, or from chance talks here and there, with men whom they believe, in most instances to be much better informed than themselves, consequently they are using the same source of information in most instances, and conviction is simply deepened by a constant repetition of the thought.
Again, most people form their opinions and judgments without due examination; they have a leaning toward one side of the question from other considerations than those belonging to it; and many have an unreasonable predilection toward the militaristic idea thinking that the pacifist stands for weakness and possesses cowardly spirit. The minds of many are biased on account of the vigorous propaganda carried out by the militarists in the form of large armaments, and international tangles, war scares and many other things which make international peace appear as an utter impossibility.
It has been said that the first and most practical step in obtaining what one wants in this world, is wanting it. Naturally a person would think that the next step would be expressing what one wants, but usually consists in wanting it still more and more until one can well express it. This is particularly true when the thing a person wants is something which concerns the whole world, for here all these other individuals who must be asked perhaps have but a very slight interest in what one wants. Until a large number desire a thing strong enough, and wish for it hard enough to say it, and get it outside of themselves, and perhaps make it contagious so that the thought will be catching to every person exposed to it, nothing happens at all.
Every man who, in some public place, like a book, paints the picture of his heart’s desire, and who throws forth as upon a screen where all men may see them his most immediate and pressing ideals, performs a very important service to humanity. If a man’s sole interest were to find out what all men living in the world to-day, need and want most, and what is necessary for their welfare, the best and only way for him to do it, would be for him to write clearly, and quite definitely so that we could all compare notes, on exactly what he wanted himself.
The thing that the populations of the earth want and need as a whole in this darkness and din of the world is safety and security in the pursuits of life, liberty, and happiness. Too many persons, with a pugnacious tenacity, cling to the idea that world peace is an idle and futile dream. Even so, nothing is more visionary, than trying to run a world without dreams, especially an economic world such as the one we live on. It is because even bad dreams are better on this foot stool than having no dreams at all, that so called bad people are in a wholesale measure allowed to run it. The one factor in economics to be reckoned with in the final and practical sense, is the desire to do right. An ideal to be sure, but at some time or other, it was an ideal that aroused the wrong passions, and now it is only another corrective ideal that will arouse the right passion. The next step by our political economists is the statement of a shrewd, dogged, realizable ideal, and that is universal peace between nations.
The great upheavals which precede changes of civilization, such as the fall of the Roman Empire and the foundation of the Arabian Empire, seem at first sight determined more especially by political transformations, foreign invasions, or the annihilation and overthrow of dynasties. A more attentive study of these events shows that behind their apparent causes, the real cause, as a rule, is seen to be, a modification in the opinions of the populations. The true historical upheavals are not those which compel astonishment by their spectacularity, and impetuous violence, and vehemence. The only important changes whence the renewal of civilization is a resultant, affects ideas, opinions and beliefs.
The landmarks of history are the visible effects of the invisible changes of human opinion, and the reason these great memorable events are so rare, is, because there is nothing so stable in a race, as the inherited groundwork, and fundamental foundation of its opinions. The present epoch, without a doubt, is one of these critical times, in which the opinion of mankind, is undergoing a great transformation.
There are two fundamental factors at the bottom of this transformation. The first, caused by the wholesale destruction of life and property, which shakes to pieces the political and social beliefs in which all the elements of our civilization are rooted. The second is the creation of entirely new conditions of existence of thought as the result of multitudinous scientific, modern, and industrial discoveries. The opinions of the past, although half destroyed, being still very powerful, as the present state of militarism proves, and the opinions which are to replace them, being still in a process of transformation, the present age represents a period of transition and political confusion.
As yet, we cannot say exactly what will be evolved some day from this necessarily somewhat chaotic period. What will be the fundamental ideas on which the societies that are to succeed our own, will be built up? At present, there is no manner of knowing. It is perfectly clear, that the societies of the future will have to reckon with a new power, and that power is public opinion. On the ruins of so many ideas formerly considered beyond discussion, and now either dead or dying, of so many sources of authority that successive revolutions have destroyed, this power, which alone has arisen in their stead seems soon destined to absorb the others. While practically all of our ancient beliefs are tottering and disappearing, while the old pillars of society are giving way, one by one, the power of public opinion is the only force that is growing, and of which the prestige is steadily and continually on the increase. The age we are about to enter, will, in truth, be governed by public opinion.
Less than a century ago the traditional policy of European States and the rivalries of sovereigns were the principal factors that shaped events, consequently the opinion of the masses did not count, and was scarcely noticed. To-day the opposite state of affairs predominates, and it is the traditions which used to obtain in politics, and the individual tendencies and rivalries of rulers, which are counting for less and less; while, on the contrary, the voice of the people has become preponderant. It is this voice that dictates their conduct to rulers, whose endeavor it is, to take notice of its utterances.
Practically all the world’s masters, all the founders of religions or empires, the apostles of all beliefs, eminent statesmen, and in a more modest sphere, the mere chiefs of small groups of men have always been unconscious psychologists, possessed of an instinctive and often very scientific knowledge of the character of public opinion. It was mostly this accurate knowledge that enabled them so easily to establish their complete mastery as was so often done.
Napoleon had a marvellous insight into the public opinion of the country over which he reigned, but he, at times, completely misunderstood it, and overshot the mark, and as a rule completely misunderstood the public opinion of other nations. It was because he misunderstood it that he engaged in Spain, and notably in Russia, in conflicts in which his power received blows, which were destined within a brief period of time to ruin it. Neither did the most subtle advisers of Napoleon understand public opinion, as they should have done, for Talleyrand wrote him, that: “Spain would receive his soldiers as Liberators.” The real truth of the matter was, that it received them as beasts of prey. A slight acquaintance with public opinion in that case would have easily foreseen this reception.
Public opinion rules and is practically as unattackable as our religious ideas were in the Middle Ages. Imagine a modern free thinker translated into those days of the Middle Ages. Can you think that, after having ascertained the sovereign power of the religious opinion that was then in force, that he would have been tempted to attack it? Having fallen into the hands of a judge disposed to have him burned at the stake, under the imputation of having concluded a pact with the Devil, or of having participated in the Witches’ Sabbath, would it have occurred to him to dispute the existence of the Devil or of the Witches’ Sabbath? It were as wise to oppose a cyclone with discussion as public opinion, which is a slow growth and gradually comes from within, or, in other words, is the product of education.
As a consequence of the slowness of the movement of the psychological characteristics of races, great stability and fixity, which prevents the overthrow of the equilibrium of races, and their works, is the result. Only in the long run, and by slow hereditary accumulations, is it possible for the psychological and the anatomical elements of the human species to be transformed. The evolution of civilization depends wholly on these transformations.
Public opinion is often made by prominent factors, such as wants, the struggle for life, the action of certain surroundings, the progress of industry and the sciences, education facilities, wars, etc. Ideas do not become public opinion, until, as the consequence of a very slow elaboration, they have descended from the mobile regions of thought, to that stable, and unconscious region of the sentiments, in which the motives of our intentions are elaborated. They then become elements of character and begin to influence conduct. It is this line up of unconscious ideas, that give us character. The idea of international Peace, has been at work for several generations, and on account of the slowness of our mental transformations, many generations of men are needed to secure the triumph of new ideas, and many generations are necessary to cause old ideas to disappear. During the Middle Ages, there were two principal ideas: Religious and feudal. Its arts, literature and whole conception of life were derived from these ideas, until the time of the Renaissance when they began to change; and also the conception of life, the arts and literature underwent an entire transformation.
No matter what the nature of the ideas may be, whether scientific, artistic, philosophic, or religious, the mechanism of its propagation remains identically the same. With International Peace, it is the same, and must first be adopted, as has been done, by a small number of apostles, the intensity of whose faith and the authority of whose names give great prestige. As soon as these apostles succeed in convincing a small circle of adepts and thus form new apostles, the new idea enters into the domain of discussion, where it first arouses universal opposition, because it necessarily clashes with much that is very old and well established. The apostles who defend it are naturally greatly excited by the opposition, which causes them to defend the new idea with energy and diligence. The new idea becomes more and more a subject of discussion, and of course is entirely accepted by the one side and entirely rejected by the other side, with almost as much vehemence. These impassioned debates help the progress of the idea very materially, and it keeps going and going, and the new generations who find it controverted tend to adopt it merely because it is a progressive measure, and because young people, always eager to be independent, find wholesale opposition to old ideas to be the most accessible form of originality.
Consequently, the new idea continues to gain in strength, and finally it does not need any more support, and spreads everywhere by the mere effect of imitation, acting with contagion, a faculty with which humans are very heavily endowed. Just as soon as the mechanism of contagion intervenes, the idea enters on the phase which necessarily signifies ultimate success, and it then becomes public opinion, and takes on a penetrating and subtle force, which spreads it progressively among all intellects, creating simultaneously a sort of special receptive atmosphere or a general manner of thinking. Like the fine dust of the prairie, which penetrates everywhere, it finds its way into the interior of all the conceptions, and all the productions of an epoch, and the idea and its consequences, then form part of that compact stock of hereditary commonplaces loaded on us by education. Thus the idea has triumphed, and has entered the domain of public opinion, where it has nothing to fear.
The Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution is a fine example of the reception accorded an idea by public opinion as I have illustrated above. For seventy years the apostles of the political doctrine that the direct election of United States Senators by the people is best for them, kept hammering away with their arguments, until it was finally adopted as an amendment to the Constitution. The object of most arguments are at first abhorred, finally endured, and eventually embraced.
The idea of International Peace like the Seventeenth Amendment, has practically run its prescribed course for adoption. It has reached the point where progress is rapid. Of the various ideas which guide a civilization, some rest confined with the upper grades of the nation, while others go deep down among the population. As a rule they arrive there much deformed, but, when they do arrive there, the power they exert over primitive minds incapable of much reasoning is wonderfully large. Under such conditions the idea represents something that is practically invincible, and its efforts are hurled forward with violence analagous to a stream that has overflown its banks. There are always hundreds of thousands of men in a nation of the larger sort who are ready to risk their lives to defend an idea as soon as this idea has actually convinced or subjugated them.
International Peace has been talked and discussed for so many years, that the time is now ripe for it to be inaugurated as part of the international law of the world.