THE ESTIMATE
Let us suppose that the observation and attention have taken in all that they should. These various items lying in a more or less jumbled mass must now be sorted. Information of one class must not be found mixed with that of another class. Each organized body of information must approach the leader’s judgment by itself so that: (1) nothing will be overlooked; so that (2) each item will be with its proper set. After they have all passed through his thought, certain ones, of course, may be discarded; but they all must none the less be first reviewed consciously by the leader. This process is called the estimate of the situation. In order, therefore, to comply with the full conditions of such an estimate, a fixed classification of all the essentials which should go through the hopper of a leader’s judgment has been made. After his information has been obtained and before his decision has been formed, the leader must say to himself:—
1. What is my mission?
2. What are the forces—the enemy’s and my own?
3. What conditions are favorable and what unfavorable?
4. What is the enemy doing and what will he probably do?
5. What effect has the terrain upon my mission?
6. What different courses are open to me in order to carry out my mission, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of each?
The method just described is no more than that of collecting, classifying, and weighing data. It is the very process we must follow before we can write a decent theme, article, report, or anything fit to read. An estimate of a situation is nothing more than an outline of observations made in order to arrive at a proper conclusion. The leader has no time to write down the points. But he nevertheless assembles in his own mind everything which bears on his subject—unity; he classifies all this into groups with a certain orderly arrangement—coherence; and he considers the effect of each item upon his mission and situation—clear thinking.