The Dangers of Aviation
We are very sure to be informed of the fact when an aviator is killed. Comparatively little stir is made nowadays over an automobile fatality, and the ordinary railroad accident receives bare mention. For instruction and warning, accidents to air craft cannot be given too much publicity; but if we wish any accurate conception of the danger we must pay regard to factors of proportion. There are perhaps a thousand aeroplanes and about sixty dirigible balloons in the world. About 500 men—amateurs and professionals—are continuously engaged in aviation. The Aero Club of France has issued in that country nearly 300 licenses. In the United States, licenses are held by about thirty individuals. We can form no intelligent estimate as to the number of unlicensed amateurs of all ages who are constantly experimenting with gliders at more or less peril to life and limb.
A French authority has ascertained the death rate among air-men to have been—to date—about 6%. This is equivalent to about one life for 4000 miles of flight: but we must remember that accidents will vary rather with the number of ascents and descents than with the mileage. Four thousand miles in 100 flights would be much less perilous, under present conditions, than 4000 miles in 1000 flights.
There were 26 fatal aeroplane accidents between September 17, 1908, and December 3, 1910. Yet in that period there were many thousands of ascents: 1300 were made in one week at the Rheims tournament alone. Of the 26 accidents, 1 was due to a wind squall, 3 to collision, 6 (apparently) to confusion of the aviator, and 12 to mechanical breakage. An analysis of 40 British accidents shows 13 to have been due to engine failures, 10 to alighting on bad ground, 6 to wind gusts, 5 to breakage of the propeller, and 6 to fire and miscellaneous causes. These casualties were not all fatal, although the percentage of fatalities in aeronautic accidents is high. The most serious results were those due to alighting on bad ground; long grass and standing grain being very likely to trip the machine and throw the occupant. French aviators are now strapping themselves to their seats in order to avoid this last danger.
The Santos-Dumont “Demoiselle”
(From The Aeroplane, by Hubbard, Ledeboer and Turner)
Practically all of the accidents occur to those who are flying; but spectators may endanger themselves. During one of the flights of Mauvais at Madrid, in March of the present year, the bystanders rushed through the barriers and out on the field before the machine had well started. A woman was decapitated by the propeller, and four other persons were seriously injured.
Nearly all accidents result from one of three causes: bad design, inferior mechanical construction, and the taking of unnecessary risks by the operator. Scientific design at the present writing is perhaps impossible. Our knowledge of the laws of air resistance and sustention is neither accurate nor complete. Much additional study and experiment must be carried on; and some better method of experimenting must be devised than that which sends a man up in the air and waits to see what happens. A thorough scientific analysis will not only make aviation safer, it will aid toward making it commercially important. Further data on propeller proportions and efficiencies, and on strains in the material of screws under aerial conditions, will do much to standardize power plant equipment. The excessive number of engine breakdowns is obviously related to the extremely light weight of the engines employed: better design may actually increase these weights over those customary at present. Great weight reduction is no longer regarded as essential at present speeds in aerial navigation: we have perhaps already gone too far in this respect.
Bad workmanship has been more or less unavoidable, since no one has yet had ten years’ experience in building aeroplanes. The men who have developed the art have usually been sportsmen rather than mechanics, and only time is necessary to show the impropriety of using “safety pins” and bent wire nails for connections.
The taking of risks has been an essential feature. When one man earns $100,000 in a year by dare-devil flights, when the public flocks in hordes—and pays good prices—to see a man risk his neck, he will usually aim to satisfy it. This is not developing aerial navigation: this is circus riding—looping-the-loop performances which appeal to some savage instinct in us but lead us nowhere. Men have climbed two miles into the clouds, for no good purpose whatever. All that we need to know of high altitude conditions is already known or may be learned by ascents in anchored balloons. Records up to heights of sixteen miles have been obtained by sounding balloons.
If these high altitudes may under certain conditions be desirable for particular types of balloon, they are essentially undesirable for the aeroplane. The supporting power of a heavier-than-air machine decreases in precisely inverse ratio with the altitude. To fly high will then involve either more supporting surface and therefore a structurally weaker machine, or greater speed and consequently a larger motor. It is true that the resistance to propulsion decreases at high altitudes, just as the supporting power decreases: and on this account, given only a sufficient margin of supporting power, we might expect a standard machine to work about as well at a two-mile elevation as at a height of 200 feet; but rarefaction of the air at the higher altitudes decreases the weight of carbureted mixture drawn into the motor, and consequently its output. Any air-man who attempts to reach great heights in a machine not built for such purpose is courting disaster.
Flights over cities, spectacular as they are, and popular as they are likely to remain, are doubly dangerous on account of the irregular air currents and absence of safe landing places. They have at last been officially discountenanced as not likely to advance the sport.
All flights are exhibition flights. The day of a quiet, mind-your-own-business type of aerial journey has not yet arrived. Exhibition performances of any sort are generally hazardous. There were nine men killed in one recent automobile meet. If the automobile were used exclusively for races and contests, the percentage of fatalities might easily exceed that in aviation. It is claimed that no inexperienced aviator has ever been killed. This may not be true, but there is no doubt that the larger number of accidents has occurred to the better-known men from whom the public expects something daring.
Probably the best summing up of the danger of aviation may be obtained from the insurance companies. The courts have decided that an individual does not forfeit his life insurance by making an occasional balloon trip. Regular classified rates for aeroplane and balloon operators are in force in France and Germany. It is reported that Mr. Grahame-White carries a life insurance policy at 35% premium—about the same rate as that paid by a “crowned head.” Another aviator of a less professional type has been refused insurance even at 40% premium. Policies of insurance may be obtained covering damage to machines by fire or during transportation and by collisions with other machines; and covering liability for injuries to persons other than the aviator.
On the whole, flying is an ultra-hazardous occupation; but an occasional flight by a competent person or by a passenger with a careful pilot is simply a thrilling experience, practically no more dangerous than many things we do without hesitation. Nearly all accidents have been due to preventable causes; and it is simply a matter of science, skill, perseverance, and determination to make an aerial excursion under proper conditions as safe as a journey in a motor car. Men who for valuable prizes undertake spectacular feats will be killed as frequently in aviation as in bicycle or even in automobile racing; but probably not very much more frequently, after design and workmanship in flying machines shall have been perfected. The total number of deaths in aviation up to February 9, 1911, is stated to have been forty-two.