It has sometimes been thought that Sir Rowland Hill's theory included the proposition that the increase of the number of letters varied in inverse proportion to the reduction of rate effected, that is to say, that if the rate were reduced by one-half, the number of letters posted would be doubled; if the rate were reduced by two-thirds, the number of letters posted would increase threefold.[79] This is not the case. His estimate was that with the reduction of postage in the United Kingdom to the uniform rate of one penny, i.e. an average reduction of seven-eighths (from about eightpence), an immediate fourfold increase in the number of letters might be anticipated. This estimate was framed with regard to the circumstances existing in the United Kingdom at the time, and there is no other rule applicable to the relation between reduction of postage and resultant increase of postal traffic than that it is relative to the particular circumstances of time and place. Especially, it may be said, where postage is already low, further reduction is hardly likely to result in largely increased traffic.
In brief, Sir Rowland Hill calculated that by the adoption of his proposals for the modification of methods of working, the
letter postage in the United Kingdom might be reduced to the uniform rate of one penny irrespective of distance, without causing loss to the net revenue of more than £300,000 a year.
The pamphlet, Post Office Reform: Its Importance and Practicability, in which the plan was embodied, was first issued privately in January 1837 for circulation in political and official circles, to which Sir Rowland Hill had access, partly through the celebrity of his family on account of their school system, but chiefly through his brother Matthew Davenport Hill, then a member of Parliament. In February 1837 the author was invited to give evidence before the Commissioners for Post Office Inquiry.[80] The proposals were not, however, viewed favourably by the Government, and were resolutely opposed by the Postmaster-General and many of the high authorities of the Post Office.[81]
Finding it impossible to impress the official mind, Sir Rowland Hill issued the pamphlet to the public,[82] and it met with immediate, widespread, and influential support. The Press, Chambers of Commerce, and other bodies actively supported propaganda for the adoption of the scheme.[83] Public meetings in support of it were held in all parts of the country, and numerous petitions in its favour were submitted to Parliament. So strong was the public feeling that in November 1837 the Government were constrained to appoint a Select Committee of the House of Commons for the express purpose
of considering Sir Rowland Hill's proposals. This Committee took a vast amount of evidence. The contentions of Sir Rowland Hill were in the main sustained by this evidence, and the Committee recommended (but only by the casting vote of its chairman) the adoption of a uniform rate. They were not, however, satisfied that the net revenue would be maintained if the uniform rate were made as low as one penny, and they therefore recommended the rate of twopence.[84] The Committee reported in August, 1838, but no immediate steps were taken by the Government to carry out their recommendations. The condition of the national finances was not so healthy as in 1837, when the proposals were first broached, and they did not improve in the following years.[85] The doubt as to the financial result of the scheme therefore made its early adoption in the normal course unlikely. The reform was, however, warmly taken up by the Radicals,[86] and in 1839 party exigencies enabled them to insist on the introduction of uniform penny postage as the price of their support in Parliament.[87]
On the 10th January 1840, therefore, the reform was introduced.[88] The new rate was one penny for each of the first two half ounces, and twopence for each additional
ounce. The results were disappointing financially. The reduction in net revenue in the first year was one million pounds sterling (from £1,500,000 to £500,000), instead of £300,000 as forecasted. The number of letters, also, was doubled only, instead of quadrupled (in 1839, 82 millions, in 1840, 169 millions). But the numbers continued to increase rapidly, in agreeable contrast to the stagnation under the old system. By 1847 they had quadrupled; by 1860 they had reached 564 millions; and the expansion has since been continuous.[89] The gross revenue of 1839 was equalled in 1850, and the net revenue of 1839 was reached in 1863. It has since gone on increasing. The plan was not an immediate financial success: neither was it a complete financial failure, as sometimes alleged.[90] The recovery of revenue was slow, but it was constant; and ultimately the plan has abundantly justified itself as a financial arrangement.
The changes in the British letter rates since 1840 have not been numerous or fundamental. The limit of weight for letters, viz. 16 ounces, fixed in 1840, was abolished in 1847. In 1865 the progression of weight and charge above one ounce was made a penny the half-ounce. In 1871 the rates were reduced. Letters up to 1 ounce in weight became transmissible at the penny rate; for the second ounce, and for every succeeding 2 ounces up to 12 ounces, the rate was
made ½d.; and for letters weighing more than 12 ounces, 1d. the ounce, including the first ounce. In 1885 the rate of ½d. for every 2 ounces after the second ounce was continued without limit; and in 1897, on the occasion of the Diamond Jubilee of Queen Victoria, a further reduction of the rate for heavier letters was made. The scale of 1d. for the first 4 ounces, and ½d. for each succeeding 2 ounces, was then introduced. This method of effecting a reduction was dictated largely by a desire to simplify the rates of postage. It admitted of the abolition of the Sample Post, and of the Book Post (except as regards packets not exceeding 2 ounces in weight), and thus removed a source of confusion and loss of time both to the staff and the public.