To drive back our army northwards to Hsi-ping-kai called for immense efforts and many sacrifices on the part of the Japanese. I have stated (in [Chapter VII.]) that our Headquarter Staff estimated the total peace establishment of their army at 110,000 men [of which 13,000 were always absent on furlough and leave], and the reserve and territorial forces at only 315,000, so that the total number available for service was, as we thought, not more than 425,000. But, according to the figures of the Japanese army medical authorities, more than 1,000,000 men were called up to the colours, which must have demanded a great effort on the part of the nation. It was found necessary also, during the war, to alter the existing laws so as to catch those men who had already completed their time in the reserve for a further period of service in the regular army, and to draft into the ranks in 1904 and 1905 the recruit contingent of 1906 as well as that of 1905. (Towards the end we began to find old men and boys amongst our prisoners.) Their casualties were very high; in the Cemetery of Honour in Tokio alone 60,600 men killed in battle were buried, and to these must be added more than 50,000 who died of wounds. Thus it appears from these two sources alone that they lost 110,000—a figure equal to the whole peace establishment of the army. Taking into account our standing peace army of 1,000,000 men, our losses were comparatively far lighter than those of the Japanese. In all some 554,000 men passed through their hospitals during the war, of whom 220,000[55] were wound cases. Altogether they lost 135,000 men killed and died of wounds and sickness. Their losses in officers were particularly heavy, and the men fought with such stubborn bravery that whole regiments, and even brigades, were on certain occasions almost wiped out of existence. This happened, for instance, in the fight for Putiloff Hill,[56] on October 15; also during the February fighting for the position held by the 3rd Siberians on the Kiao-tu Ling [Pass]; in the battle of March 7, at Tu-hung-tun[57] and other points. At Liao-yang and Mukden the majority of the enemy’s troops suffered very heavily in their frontal attack of our positions, and failed to take them. The fate of these battles was decided by turning movements. In the fighting on the Sha Ho they tried hard to force us back towards Mukden, and many of their units were again and again driven off our positions, and only occupied them after we had abandoned them of our own accord. The spirit of these Japanese troops who had thus seen no success attend their individual efforts could not but be shaken. Again, the ever-increasing determination displayed by our men must have affected their spirit. Their regulars had been placed hors de combat in considerable numbers, and however quickly the recruits might be called up and trained, it was not to be expected that they would be able to develop the same stubbornness in defence, and the same dash in attack, that their comrades had possessed in the first campaign. This was noticeable in the fighting in front of Mukden, but especially near Hsi-ping-kai. While our scouting parties, and the troops of the advanced posts, were pressing the enemy more and more boldly, we began to notice a comparative lack of enterprise on their part, coupled with a want of their former daring, and even their watchfulness. Perhaps the strain of war was beginning to tell on the Southern temperament. Indeed, for six whole months they gave us time to strengthen ourselves and fortify, without once attempting to attack and press us back on the Sungari, and so inflict a crushing defeat. While we remained at Hsi-ping-kai the number of prisoners taken by us began to increase, and they ceased to display the fanaticism shown by those captured in 1904. Many openly acknowledged that they were weary of the war, and from the nature of numerous letters from Japan found on the killed and prisoners, it was evident that this weariness was general. These letters also told of the heavy increase in taxation during the war, of the increased cost of the necessities of life, and of the dearth of employment. Once an entire company surrendered in front of the positions held by the 1st Siberians, a thing that had never happened before. Nor were the enemy well situated as regards material. Money became more and more scarce, while the requirements of the growing army increased. Particular difficulty was found in quickly replenishing artillery ammunition. This was very noticeable on the Sha Ho.
But what must have been the most serious source of anxiety to Japan was the indifference which Europe and America were beginning to show to her successes. At first it had seemed profitable to Great Britain and Germany that Russia and Japan should be drawn into war, for when they were exhausted the hands of both would be tied—ours in Europe, and Japan’s in Asia. Nevertheless, it was not to the interest of Europe generally to allow the triumph of the Japanese in the battlefields of Manchuria to become absolute. A victorious Japan might join with China, and raise the standard of “Asia for the Asiatics.” The extinction of all European and American enterprises in Asia would be the first object of this new great Power, and the expulsion of Europeans from Asia would be the end. There is already little enough room on the Continent of Europe. Without the markets of the wide world she could not exist, and the cries of “America for the Americans,” “Asia for the Asiatics,” “Africa for the Africans,” are of serious import for her. But the danger is approaching, and is so imminent that the Powers of Europe will be forced to sink their differences and unite in order to withstand the attempt of the young nations[58] to drive old Europe home into the narrow shell which she has long since outgrown. We might have taken advantage of this change in international feeling, and have tried to close the money markets of the world to Japan. Only one decisive victory on our part was wanted to bring about a very serious reaction both in Japan and in the army in the field. If we had exhausted her financial resources, and had continued the war, we might soon have compelled her to seek an honourable peace, which would have been advantageous to us.
At Mukden we fought with a shortage in establishment of 300,000 men; we began the war with inconsiderable forces; we conducted it under the most unfavourable conditions, and without the support of the country; we were, moreover, weakened by disturbances in the interior, and were connected with Russia only by a single-track weak line. In these impossible conditions we put 300,000 of the enemy hors de combat, and had 600,000 rifles ready at Hsi-ping-kai at a time when they were beginning to flag. If we attained such results, can it be said that our army accomplished but little? Is it fair to continue applying the epithet “Disgraceful” to the war? It cannot be denied that both the troops and their leaders did less in the time at their disposal than they might have done if properly supported by the country; but by the summer of 1905 conditions had begun to change in our favour. The conquered are always judged severely, and the leaders should naturally be the first to bear the responsibility for disaster to the troops under them. We can only be judged as acquitted because of our readiness to continue the struggle—a readiness which was created, and grew stronger in the army in spite of disaster. We believed in the possibility and certainty of victory, and if it had not been for the serious internal disturbances in Russia, we should have undoubtedly been able to prove the truth of our belief in battle.
Even the inhabitants of Moscow, where, in all the difficult times the nation has passed through, a manly and determined voice has always been raised in support of the honour and dignity of Russia, showed that their spirits had on this occasion fallen. It was with amazement and sorrow that we read of a certain action of the Moscow Town Council on June 7, 1905. The news had immense effect on the army, and on hearing of it I sent the following letter[59] to Prince Trubetski, the President of the Moscow nobility:
“An overwhelming impression has been produced throughout the army by the news which has reached us from home that many poor-spirited people are trying to bring about an early peace. It is forgotten that a peace made before victory has been won cannot be honourable, and will not therefore be permanent. Never has our army been so strong and so ready for serious battle as now. Victory is nearer than seems likely to those at a distance. The troops have great belief in the new Commander-in-Chief;[60] they are assured of everything necessary to their wants, and their health is excellent. We would welcome news of the enemy’s advance, and are ready to move against them, when ordered to, with full faith in our strength. The troops have become war-seasoned. Even those units which were for various reasons not as steady as they should have been in the early fights are now thoroughly reliable. Numbers of wounded officers and men are hastening to rejoin, though not completely convalescent. Though we have lost the fleet, the army remains to us, and, I repeat, it is more powerful than it ever was before. Our position is altogether stronger and, tactically, better placed than those we held at Liao-yang or Mukden, for the Japanese do not envelop us in the same way. Though their forces have also been growing in numbers, there are many indications that their strength is on the wane: their ranks are being filled with men who formerly would not have been accepted, and the whole spirit of the army has undergone a change. More men allow themselves to be taken prisoners than before; their artillery and cavalry are weaker than ours, and they are short of gun ammunition. Letters from Japan, which we have found on the men, show that a general feeling of dissatisfaction with the war is growing among the people, for prices have gone up, and they are enduring great privations. These are the conditions under which I to-day read in letters from Moscow that on June 7 the Town Council discussed the advisability of inviting the representatives of the people to consider the question of putting an end to the war. Last February, on my departure for the front, you, in the name of all the representatives of Moscow, bade me farewell with words full of courage and of faith in the might of Russia. I therefore consider it my duty to send this letter to you. If the Muscovites do not feel as able as before to send their worthiest sons to us to help us overcome the foe, let them at least not prevent us from doing our duty in Manchuria.
“Although there is nothing of a secret nature in this letter, its publication in the Press over my signature is very undesirable.”
In reply, Prince Trubetski wrote to me on June 14 as follows:
“I have handed over your telegram, which greatly touched me, to the Mayor and Zemstvo; I will communicate its contents to as many as I can, and I will do everything that is possible to get action taken on it. If it may be considered necessary by the Tsar to end the war, I do not think it should be discussed beforehand in committees. May God help you! My whole heart is with you.”
But the efforts of individuals were powerless to check the march of events. The serious state of Russia’s internal affairs and the hostile—to put the best construction on it—indifference of the people resulted in peace being prematurely concluded. The consequences of making such a peace, by which Japan was recognized as Russia’s conqueror in Asia, will have serious results not only for us, but for all the Powers who have possessions or interests on that continent. The “Yellow peril,” the appearance of which has only recently been foreseen, is now a reality. Notwithstanding her victorious issue from the war, Japan is hurriedly increasing her forces, while China is forming a large army under the guidance of Japanese officers and on the Japanese model. In a very short space of time she and Japan will be able to pour an army of more than 1,500,000 into Manchuria, which, if directed against us, could proceed to take a great deal of Siberia from Russia, and reduce her to a second-rate Power.
We have seen above how the absence of any previous diplomatic arrangements forced us to keep the greater part of our armed forces in European Russia during the war, which fact constituted one of the reasons of our reverses (the Guards and Grenadiers Corps remained in Russia, while the reserve troops fought in Manchuria). We have one consolation in that we now know that our Western neighbours are not pursuing any policy of aggression against us, for they had an excellent opportunity in the years 1905 and 1906[61] to alter the existing frontier had they wished to do so. We may hope, therefore, to be able to come to some understanding with the Powers of Europe by which, should we be again attacked in the Far East, we shall be able to throw the whole of our armed forces into a struggle with either Japan or Japan and China combined. Another reason for our failure is the fact that we were unable rapidly to make full use of such forces as were available, because of the weakness of railway communication between Russia and Manchuria. It is clear that, as matters now stand in the Far East, the laying of a second track over the Siberian line and the construction of a railway along the bank of the Amur are so vital for us that no time should be lost in doing these things. The mere construction of a line along the Amur can help us but little, while a double-track line, even with forty-eight trains in the twenty-four hours, cannot, of course, satisfy all the requirements of the great army we should have to put in the field in the event of a fresh war. In future we shall only be able to rely to a small extent upon the vast supplies of food in Manchuria, and shall be obliged to convey the greater portion not only of our munitions of war, but of our food-supplies, from European Russia and Siberia. It will therefore be necessary to make use of our water communications, for the failure of the attempt to transport supplies in 1905 by the Arctic Ocean and the River Yenissei cannot be considered final. Particular assistance also could be afforded to the army by increasing the population of Siberia, and so at the same time augmenting the local resources necessary for an army. The rich reserves of metals, coals, and timber in that part will assist us in bringing nearer to the Far East not only our food-supply base, but also our war base (for ordnance, ammunition, explosives, etc.).