We see that in spite of the European alarmists, who in 1876 denounced the “American Wheat Peril,” it took fourteen years for the exports to increase from 145 to 218 millions of bushels, and that the latter figure has been only four times surpassed since 1892.
The production of wheat, on the other hand, increased 116 per cent, between 1875 and 1903, while the population, during the same period, increased only by 82 per cent. But we must not forget that although the increase in population is constant, that of production is not—indeed, the harvest of 1901 amounted to only 273 million bushels of wheat, as compared to 280 millions in 1877. There is a decrease in years of bad harvests, but the population naturally knows no such decrease.
The consumption of wheat did not increase between the census of 1890 and that of 1900; the average remained 424·6 lb. per head, representing a deficit of 368·8 lb. below the standard allowance of 793·4 lb.
On the other hand, as the population increases by about 11⁄4 or 11⁄3 millions per annum, while consumption remains stationary, we may conclude that if this country has not yet reached its maximum of wheat-production, it is very near that stage, and that the moment is approaching at which all
its wheat harvest will be absorbed by internal consumption, to the detriment of the export trade.
We have mentioned India as a wheat-exporting country; but it is no longer a rival to the Argentine in the conquest of the international markets. Here is the comparative table of exportation from India and the Argentine.
| Years. | India. | The Argentine. |
| (Millions of Bushels.) | (Millions of Bushels.) | |
| 1891-2 | 54·5 | 34·2 |
| 1900-1 | ·9 | 36·8 |
| 1902-3 | 18·5 | 60·0 |
| 1905-6 | 26·7 | 109·0 |
| 1906-7 | 28·9 | 106·8 |
A mere glance at these figures is more eloquent than any commentary, since the exportation of wheat from India increased by barely 10,000,000 bushels between 1902 and 1907, while that from the Argentine increased by 46,000,000 bushels. On the other hand, it is known that India exports only 10 per cent. of her harvest, although her extremely frugal population consumes only 1·26 lb. of wheat per head, instead of the 793·4 lb. we have taken as our basis of annual consumption. We see then that the production of India, if her population consumed a normal amount of wheat,[52] would not satisfy the national requirements, so that far from exporting wheat she would, on the contrary, be forced to import large quantities from without.
[52] There is really no such thing as a normal consumption of wheat, especially for India. The amount consumed is a matter of climate, local or national foodstuffs, fuel, methods of cooking, etc.—[Trans.]
Canada is among those wheat-growing countries whose competition is most to be feared; and this for many reasons—geographical, political and economical. If Argentine statesmen do not seriously apply themselves to attracting a foreign population, and to reducing the expenses which press upon the inhabitants, the Argentine will run the risk of being supplanted in the future by this important British colony.