This country never having been a country of manufactures, the productions of the soil ever were, as they still are, the principal source of revenue. The inhabitants have abridged their wants of foreign articles, from the scarcity of them, and have, in part, supplied their place by home manufactures; which, being chiefly conducted by the women, take nothing from the labor appropriated to agriculture, while it enables the farmer to spare a larger portion of his income to the public.
Whatever diminution our means of revenue may have suffered, must be accounted for on the decay of foreign trade, and on the loss of territory. The imposts on trade in Great Britain amounted to about a fourth of its total revenue. The proportion must be less in America. But suppose it to be the same; suppose our external commerce to be reduced one-half, which I believe is an ample allowance, then, one-eighth should be deducted from our revenue on this account; which would bring it down to six millions, five hundred and sixty-two thousand, five hundred dollars. Allow for the loss of Georgia and South Carolina one-eighth of this sum: this would reduce the income of the remaining States to five millions, seven hundred and forty-two thousand, one hundred and eighty-eight, and four-eighths, dollars. But as the allowance, in both cases, is large, the diminution I have already supposed, of one-fifth of the whole, appears to be nearest the truth; which leaves these States with a net revenue of six millions of dollars.
We will now examine how far this rule agrees with experience, and with what has already been effected in these States. Massachusetts may serve as a criterion. This is one of the States where taxation has been carried furthest. Taxes were so heavy last year, that I am informed there were real marks of distress among some classes of the people. The Legislature, in their late Address, tell us that they amounted to six hundred thousand pounds lawful: and they appear to have thought the pressure of them too great, by reducing them at a time when they are obliged to have recourse to a large loan, to answer the exigencies of the current year.
The taxes they specify which seem to belong to those of the present year, with the addition of the bounties for raising men, and the beef supply, may be estimated at near five hundred thousand pounds.
This State is in a different situation from any other. Its position has made it impossible for the enemy to intercept its trade; while that of all the others has been greatly injured or totally obstructed. It has become, in consequence, the mart of the States northward of Pennsylvania; and its commerce has enlarged itself much beyond its former limits. A great part of the money expended for the support of the war, has been disbursed there. Congress, in their requisitions for money, have rated the quota of Massachusetts at of the whole; but I believe its ability, at this time, is in the proportion of one-fifth. I found this estimation on an impartial comparison of the circumstances of the several States.
Admitting the proportion to be just, and taking the taxes of the present year as a standard, the gross amount of our collective revenues would be two millions, five hundred thousand pounds lawful; or eight millions, three hundred and thirty-three thousand, three hundred and thirty-three, and one-third, dollars. The expense of collection, in England, is about the ninth of the gross amount; and considering that our revenue is to be raised in eleven different governments, each having a complete set of collectors of its own, the expense of collection, with us, will in all probability be not much less than it is in England. Supposing it to be the same, and that the taxes were to prove as productive as their nominal amount, our net revenue would then be seven millions, four hundred and seven thousand, four hundred and eight, and one-half, dollars; which considerably exceeds what it ought to be by my first calculation.
But there are considerations which may induce us to make large deductions from this sum. When the Legislature tells us, that the taxes of last year amounted to six hundred thousand pounds, it also tells us that there was a part of them still to be levied; which, among other things, had occasioned them to postpone the next tax to a future session. Whatever is due on the last year, may be considered, in effect, as an anticipation on the taxes of the present; for it takes off so much from the ability of the people to pay them. The chances are, that the additional impositions projected for the current year will not be raised in their full extent. Taxes are seldom or never so productive as their estimated value; and in a case like this, must be expected to be more than commonly deficient.
It is to be observed, also, that the last year was a year of peculiar exertion. There was a general expectation of some attempt, in conjunction with our allies, decisive of the war. This made the people strain their efforts beyond their natural abilities: and yet they did not comply with the demands of the Legislature.
The money for the bounties this year, which I have calculated at sixty thousand pounds,[12] may, in like manner, be regarded as an extraordinary and special contribution, which the people may be willing to submit to, over and above what they could probably afford to pay, to get rid of the insupportable inconvenience of temporary enlistments.
Reasonable deductions on these accounts being made, will bring the two calculations to a pretty exact agreement, and make them confirm each other. But were not this the case, I should be inclined, in preference, to trust the first, as being founded on a basis better known and better ascertained by experience. I believe, however, we may safely conclude, from both, that between six and seven millions of dollars is the proper revenue of these States, after the dismemberment of South Carolina and Georgia.