Our allies have five thousand men at Rhode Island, which, in the worst event that can happen, will be recruited to eight, to co-operate with us on a defensive plan. Should our army amount to no more than fifteen thousand men, the combined forces, though not equal to the expulsion of the enemy, will be equal to the purpose of compelling them to renounce their offensive, and content themselves with maintaining one or two capital points. This is on the supposition that the public have the means of putting their troops in activity. By stopping the progress of their conquests, and reducing them to an unmeaning and disgraceful defensive, we destroy the national expectation of success, from which the ministry draw their resources. It is not a vague conjecture, but a fact founded on the best information, that, had it not been for the capture of Charleston, and the victory of Camden, the ministry would have been in the utmost embarrassment for the supplies of this year. On the credit of those events, they procured a loan of five and twenty millions. They are in a situation where a want of splendid successes is ruin. They have carried taxation nearly to its extreme boundary; they have mortgaged all their funds; they have a large unfunded debt, besides the enormous mass which is funded. This must necessarily create apprehensions in their most sanguine partisans: and if these are not counteracted by flattering events, from time to time, they cannot much longer continue the delusion. Indeed, in this case, I suppose they must themselves despair.
The game we play is a sure game, if we play it with skill. I have calculated, in the preceding observations, on the most disadvantageous side. Many events may turn up, in the course of the summer, to make even the present campaign decisive.
If we compare the real ability of France, for revenue, with that of Great Britain; the economy and sagacity in the conduct of the finances of the former; the extravagance and dissipation which are overwhelming those of the latter; there will be found every reason to believe, that the resources of France will outlast those of her adversary. Her fleet is not much inferior, independent of that of Spain and Holland. Combined with that of Spain, it is greatly superior. If the Dutch enter into the war in earnest, and add their fleet, the superiority will be irresistible. Notwithstanding the injury they may sustain in the first instance, the Dutch will be still formidable: they are rich in credit, and have extensive means for maritime power.
Except the Emperor, who is hostile, and the Dane, who is neutral, all the rest of Europe are either friends to France or to our independence.
Never did a nation unite more circumstances in its favor than we do: we have nothing against us but our own misconduct.
There are two classes of men among us, equally mistaken: one who, in spite of daily experience, of accumulated distress, persist in a narrow line of policy, and, amidst the most threatening dangers, fancy every thing in perfect security. Another, who, judging too much from the outside, alarmed by partial misfortunes, and the disordered state of our finances, without estimating the real faculties of the parties, give themselves up to an ignorant and ill-founded despondency. We want to learn to appreciate our true situation and that of the enemy. This would preserve us from a stupid insensibility to danger on the one hand, and inspire us with a reasonable and enlightened confidence on the other.
But let us suppose the worst, that we shall, after all, fail in our independence; our return to Great Britain, whenever it should happen, would be by compact. The war would terminate by a mediation. It cannot be supposed that the mediator would be so devoted to Great Britain, or would have so little consideration for France, as to oblige us to revert to our former subjection by an unconditional surrender. While they might confirm his dominion over us, they would endeavor to save appearances for the honor of France, and stipulate terms as favorable to us as would be compatible with a state of dependence. A general amnesty, and the security of private property (of course the payment of public debts), would be among the most simple and most indispensable. This would comprehend the concerns of the Bank; and if, unfortunately for our virtue, such a circumstance could operate as an inducement, it might be added, that our enemies would be glad to find, and to encourage such an institution among us for their own benefit.
A question may arise concerning the abilities of these States to pay their debts after the establishment of their independence; and though any doubt on this head must originate in gross ignorance, it may be necessary to oppose it with more than general argument, as has been done heretofore. A very summary and obvious calculation will show that there is nothing to be dreaded on this head.
The funds of nine hundred and seventy-nine thousand, three hundred and thirty-three, and one-third, dollars, proposed to be established for paying off the loan of the first year, and for redeeming the present paper, will, in thirty years, wipe off all the debts of the States, except those contracted to foreigners, which, I imagine, do not amount to four millions of dollars. Suppose we should be obliged, for two years besides the present, to borrow an equal sum each year from the Bank; the fund requisite to discharge these loans, on the same terms with the first, will amount to seven hundred and thirty-six thousand dollars, to be deducted from the five million, and twenty thousand, six hundred and sixty-six, and two-thirds, dollars, remaining on the annual revenue; which will reduce it to four millions, two hundred and eighty-four thousand, six hundred and sixty-six, and two-thirds, dollars: then the debt unfunded will be,
| To foreigners already contracted by supposition, | $4,000,000 |
| Deficiency of Revenue to the expense to be obtained on credit, the first year, besides the loan from the Bank, | 1,479,333⅓ |
| Deficiency of Revenue for the second year deducting the fund for discharging the loan of this year, | 1,847,333⅓ |
| Deficiency of Revenue for the third year, making the same deduction, | 2,215,333⅓ |
| ————— | |
| $9,542,000 |