Considering as a whole, therefore, the succession of crushing blows which during the past six years have been dealt against the integrity of China by open enemies and dissimulating friends, we may conceive, at least partially, the hatred of foreigners which exists in the country. In this case we are not driven to assume any wide difference between the Chinese and races more nearly allied to ourselves, nor need we seek to account for their demonstrations by defects in their moral or religious training. Had even the whole population of China been miraculously converted to Christianity, as suggested by Sir Robert Hart ('Fortnightly Review,' November 1900), it is not permissible to assume that they would have continued turning the other cheek to so many smiters. If we suppose the case of any Western nation subjected to the experiences through which the Chinese have had to pass at the hands of foreign dictators, the mode in which it would act may afford us some measure by which to gauge the excesses of the Chinese.
The origin and organisation of the recent outbreak will no doubt be a topic of discussion for some time to come, and it is not within our province to anticipate the final verdict on it. But, as in certain contagious diseases which become constitutional, the angry symptoms first show themselves at the point of infection, it is interesting to note that the German sphere in Shantung enjoys the distinction of being the cradle of the principal agency producing the cataclysm. The prominence suddenly attained by the Boxer movement is probably fortuitous, due to its casual connection with high personages. Secret societies are nothing new, nor societies of divers sorts which have scarcely the pretence of secrecy. As weeds spring up where cultivation is neglected, these social growths may be considered in the light of spontaneous efforts to occupy ground left vacant by the constituted Government,—a sort of excrescence of autonomy rising and falling according as the administration is less or more efficient. The members of these societies may be ascetics who follow strict rules of living, defenders of popular rights, or mere "bullies" who may be hired. They bear virtuous titles, but it is safe to assume that the ostensible object of the associations is in practice invariably lost in schemes of a different complexion. Sometimes in collision, at other times in collusion, with the established Government, these societies are a mobile factor, a sort of shifting ballast, always to be reckoned with in the Chinese economy.
As the Boxers are an athletic corps, drilled and exercised, it was natural to inquire, when their imposing force stood revealed, how such a formidable movement could have been organised among the Chinese people without the fact becoming known to the foreign residents in the country. One answer is, that those who saw what was going on and warned their countrymen were decried as alarmists, and then held their peace. The wisest were but little wiser than their neighbours, for as weather prophets easily forecast the character of the following season, while they are at fault as regards that of the next twenty-four hours, so those who are able to predict with confidence the remote future in China are often the most blind to the nearer future which is reckoned by days or months. But incredulity was excusable in the present case, for the extent and apparent suddenness of the movement were really unprecedented. Such a force has not been mobilised and kept in the field in a militant condition without immense effort and liberal supplies, for though pillage might go far, it would not go all the way in supporting so large a body for any length of time. The junction of the Boxers with imperial troops, the relations of the commanders to members of the imperial family, and the influence of the movement on the question of the dynastic succession, are all matters on which light will be welcome; for as no military invasion of the territory has ever called forth such a general enthusiasm of resistance, interesting, indeed, will be the discovery of the real genesis of a rising at once spontaneous and aggressive.
The most practical observation, however, that foreign nations have been forced to make during the crisis is that, whatever might have been the separate designs of those who presided over the general movement, the rallying flag of the combination was the extermination of foreigners. That was the pretext which, for the time being at least, reconciled all antagonisms and satisfied all consciences. It seemed as if the long-accumulated hatred of the Chinese had gathered to a head, and its whole force had been concentrated in one supreme effort to sweep the aliens throughout the empire into the sea. That elaborate preparation had been made to carry this into effect seems to be placed beyond doubt, the rulers of China evidently conceiving that the effort would be successful.
The excuse put forward in palliation of an anti-crusade headed by the highest personages in the empire bears an interesting family resemblance to the apology usually made for rebels. Being beguiled by false prophets, they believed they would succeed;[38] and success would have justified the venture. The facts are such as no subsequent negotiations, no treaties, no modifications of government, no reform, no professions of any kind, can ever explain away.
VI. THE CRUX.
Concert of foreign Powers unstable—Divergent aims—Aggressive and non-aggressive Powers—Unpromising outlook—The progress of Russia the only permanent element.
If conflicting forces in China have been united in an effort to expel the foreigners, so the non-Chinese world has been forced into temporary agreement in order to extinguish a conflagration which endangered all interests. But the Powers assembled to execute judgment and restore order in China present a picturesque diversity of ulterior aims. Their unity can hardly, therefore, be expected to survive the emergency which gave it birth. After the storm has passed—if it does pass—the permanent policy of the several Powers may be expected to resume its normal sway. Of the character of these different policies we are not left in doubt, for in the history of the past six years it has been revealed in overt acts bearing a higher authority than the most solemn official manifestoes.
The principal Powers concerned may be ranged in three groups—the aggressive, the non-aggressive, and the absorbent. Under the first must be ranked Japan, France, and Germany. Facts which cannot lie have proved that these three Powers have long cherished designs upon the territory of China. No doubt they flatter themselves with the belief that their rule over such portions of Chinese soil as may come under their control would be a blessing to mankind, an opinion which it would serve no good purpose to controvert. And they reckon that, in addition to the higher civilisation which they propose to confer on the Chinese people and Government, they will secure material advantages for their own populations. The ruling characteristic, however, of this policy is that it is factitious, adventurous, and ideal, in search of interests to defend rather than framed for the defence of interests existing. It is essentially, therefore, an aggressive policy, though, in a sense, also progressive. Dividing the world into communities to be conquered and nations who are fitted to conquer them, it represents the primeval moving power in ethnic evolution. But it is a policy quite unsuited for co-operation, and the attempt to yoke together Governments, certain of whom are moved empirically by facts as they exist and as they arise, and others by the desire of creating facts, ends—as all concerts of antagonistic interests must end—most likely in explosion. A safe calculation may be made as to the action of a non-aggressive Power, under given circumstances, as the action of a man of business may be approximately inferred from obvious considerations of pecuniary advantage. But in the case of States with ideal policies, like France and Germany, no such forecast can be made. This radical divergence between the aims of the Powers who are called upon to decree the fate of China must render a sincere agreement between them, under any circumstances, impossible; and if the policy of one of them should happen to be directed by a political genius ambitious of distinction, the course of the whole would be subject to aberrations incalculable. It is true that the Governments which have marked out for themselves these extensive plans of aggression may begin to perceive that their proceedings in China have been somewhat in advance of any justification, also that they have been reckoning without their host, and that to found and maintain empires in further Asia may put a strain upon their resources out of proportion to the material gains to be derived from the enterprise. Perceiving that their "vaulting ambition may o'erleap itself" and land them on the off-side of the horse, they may show themselves willing, for the moment, to attenuate the significance of their previous energy. The discovery that the conquest of China involves something more than a military promenade may induce them to make professions which, however sincere for the time being, accord but indifferently with established facts. In the procession of history, however, it is the facts and not the words which ultimately prevail.
And this is the only canon by which it is safe to interpret the apocalyptic exchange of notes just announced between Great Britain and Germany, whose significance, like that of the conversation of a Chinese, lies in the things which are not said. Considered as a convention, it must be classed with those elastic bargains of which several examples occur in the preceding narrative, in which one party has a definite aim and the other not, and which is therefore destined to be employed exclusively to the advantage of the former. Vigilantibus non dormientibus servit lex. Without knowing what secret inducements led to such a declaration of policy between Great Britain and Germany it is impossible to assign a value to it. Its most authoritative expositors in the German press rejoice in the fact that it pins Great Britain down to the only policy which she has ever pursued, or ever will,—a policy in which her public utterances have throughout coincided with her overt acts,—that, namely, of opening Chinese and all other markets not for herself but for the whole world on equal terms. An agreement, however, which does not arrest French encroachments in the south, Russian appropriations in the north, nor German exclusive exploitations in Shantung or elsewhere, contributes little to that maintenance of the integrity of China which is its professed object. Neither the world at large nor China herself will benefit greatly by a verbal restriction on the one Power to whom the "open door" and the integrity of China are articles of political religion and of undeviating practice. And the clause which solemnly reserves to the two parties the right of consulting together in certain contingencies gives to the transaction a very platonic character. But a covenant whose meaning is veiled is always a hazardous operation, even in private life, where the power of definite interpretation lies with the more aggressive of the two parties.