Germany decided that the moment for letting a European war break loose had come, and her reasons for this decision were weighty. The most important of all was the “Slav danger,” as it was generally called in Germany and Austria-Hungary. Twenty years ago the German family averaged sixteen to eighteen children. In Austria, too, large families had been the rule. The Magyars in Hungary still boasted big families, but the cancer that had bitten into German social life was beginning to be seen there, too. The one-child family had become the fashion in Germany. The mode was adopted by the Germans in Austria. Statesmen scolded, and proposed to tax bachelors and childless couples. But they were unable to stop the terrifying decrease in the population. Meanwhile, the Slavonic races in both Germany and Austria and Hungary multiplied very rapidly. Military men complained that regiments, officers and men, were composed entirely of Slavs, because there were not sufficient Austro-Germans or Magyars. It was impossible to enter a room where men of purely German extraction had assembled without hearing of this “Slav danger,” which hung like a nightmare over the ruling races in Germany. Austria and Hungary saw their preponderance threatened. They doctored statistics to hide the truth. This was of little use. The Slav type was unmistakable. Slavs did not care to intermarry with Germans, and the race remained purely Slavonic, although Serbs and Czechs often intermarried. A war would afford an opportunity of reducing the Slav population. The military authorities had arranged to place the regiments composed of subject-races in the front of the battle so that they might be killed off. In 1914 leading men in both Germany and Austria-Hungary considered that war was inevitable within the next five years if they were to retain their supremacy.

The financial factor, too, was largely responsible for hastening the date of the war. Large sums had been spent on armaments in both Germany and Austria-Hungary far beyond the capacity of either country. Taxation had risen imperceptibly, and with it the cost of living. This had affected the middle classes. It is doubtful whether the families of officials in State employ and army officers ever got a really satisfactory meal in the last years of preparation. Men dressed in gorgeous uniforms, and with Orders and decorations that showed their rank, walked about the streets gaunt and hungry-looking.

People said, “This cannot go on.” Statesmen saw that it would be revolution or war. Austria was faced with bankruptcy unless she could fight a successful war which would open fresh regions for exploitation and relieve her of her surplus Slavs.

Undue importance was attached to news of unrest in Great Britain, both in Germany and Austria-Hungary. Spies, men who were only too ready to believe that Britain was at her last gasp, brought back reports that a revolution was about to break out. The Irish question was misunderstood. The greed and hate that had been nurtured in every German heart prevented the spy from exercising any judgment, while the statesmen who should have controlled their reports had also lost their usual faculty of calm judgment in the bitterness of their hate. The woman question, which was seen in its ugliest aspects abroad, made the Germans realise that there was something wrong. Why were they so discontented? What had been done to render them so bitter? The question was asked in the Press and in public, and no explanation was forthcoming.

Jews who travelled throughout Europe on business brought back evil reports of conditions in England. They said that they had searched the length and breadth of the land for a capable business man to push their interests. They had returned from their quest unsatisfied. Germans and Austrians who had resided in England explained this by saying that all the better elements in the country had emigrated long ago. Men could find no work unless they had influence. These facts were confirmed by observation, and undue importance was attached to them, single examples being too hastily accepted as indicative of the general state of things.

The preference shown by English business men for German clerks was regarded as another proof that the English were “a back number.”

If Britain were degenerating, Russia was on the up-grade. She was arming. She was reforming her public offices. Large loans had been contracted, and she was about to build railways to the frontier. The Austro-Russian front in Galicia bristled with fortresses. Every week brought news of some new fortifications, made either on the Austrian or the Russian side. The Slav peoples in the Balkans were also on the up-grade. Everywhere the Germans saw themselves surrounded by Slavs, who were educating and improving themselves.

Meanwhile, not only the German people, but the German army, was deteriorating. Nasty stories, like The Small Garrison, were being written, describing life in small garrison towns. The Austrian and Hungarian officers were also suffering from the corrupt life which they led. It was very uncertain whether they would have the necessary nerve to take the initiative at a crisis. Kaiser Wilhelm saw that the time was not far distant when his officers would be as bad as the Austrians. It was bad policy to wait until the growing evil that had corrupted the Austro-Hungarian army had infected his own.

CHAPTER XXVI
DIPLOMATIC METHODS: A COMPARISON

Diplomacy had succeeded in keeping the peace on two former occasions. In Western Europe it was believed that it would be successful again. Austria’s intention of going to war was not regarded as serious. The European financier especially could not bring himself to believe in war. Some of the ablest men in Europe sat in the open-air café on the Ringstrasse, unable to close an eye in sleep for fear that they should miss news of supreme importance and not be there to “cover” at the critical moment. At two in the morning the great houses on either side of the street shook as the motors carrying the big guns rumbled past the café. They were taken off at dead of night and deposited on the low-lying ground near the Danube. Next morning the great gun was taken to pieces. One half of the immense engine of destruction was slung on big hooks on a frame made for the purpose. It looked like a great hollow cradle that would have provided sleeping accommodation for a couple of men as it swirled and rocked when the train took a steep gradient. “Why have they brought out their big guns, which are so difficult to transport on the steep gradients in this mountainous country, if they do not mean business?” “Merely to frighten Servia and cow her into submission.” “Then why is everything being done so secretly?” “Merely to heighten the effect,” was the reply. Foreign diplomacy was not so blind, but it sat tight, and refused to give any opinion.