CHAPTER III.
RUSSIA, TURKEY, AND THE MINOR STATES OF SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE.
I. RUSSIA.
Whatever may be the verdict of history as to the Power responsible for plunging Europe into war, it would not have taken place if Russia had not supported Serbia, for Serbia would have accepted the whole of Austria-Hungary's demands if she had not been assured of Russian active intervention in her behalf. Russia, with the magnanimity of a great people, was not prepared to stand idly by and witness the wanton attack of Austria upon a weaker state, which had already offered ample reparation for any offence for which she could be held responsible. The attack made on Serbia by Austria-Hungary was, however, regarded by the party under the Grand Duke Nicholas as an imperative call to action, even though the Army was not quite ready; but the Government made every effort to arrive at a pacific solution, and it was not until the equivocal attitude of Germany made the situation menacing that the Tsar, wavering between his love of peace and internal reform on the one hand, and the just outcry of the Nationalists and the "Orthodox" Church on the other, was at length persuaded to take the side which was sure to be the most popular, at least so long as success should crown the Russian arms. It was not, strictly speaking, a war "between Slav and Teuton," for many of the Slavs outside the Russian Empire declared themselves against Russia, and fought on the side of her enemies. The enemies of "the Teuton" among the Slavs, apart from Serbia and Montenegro, were only the Russians; the Poles, the Czechs, the Croats, and even the Slovaks and Slovenes, were on the side of Austria-Hungary. There were some mutinies of Czech and Croat regiments, which were due to the racial hostility of the Czechs to the Germans and the Croats to the Hungarians (A.R., 1912, p. 337; 1913, p. 328). The "Orthodox" clergy in Russia regarded the war as a sort of crusade against Catholicism; but their agitation met with little success among the Austrian Slavs except in some districts of Galicia and Hungary inhabited by Ruthenians of the United Greek Church (p. [327]), many of whom were shot during the war for having given the Russians information of the movements of the Austro-Hungarian Army. The Ruthenians of the "Orthodox" Church, on the other hand, who inhabit the province of the Ukraine in Russia, had started a separatist movement at Kieff in March in favour of union with Austria.
The most important event of the earlier part of the year was the retirement on February 11 from the post of Premier and Minister of Finance of M. Kokovtsoff, under whose administration Russia had attained to unprecedented welfare and a greater political stability than it had enjoyed for many years. His retirement was believed to have been brought about by the intrigues and disloyalty of his colleagues—a frequent cause of the fall of Ministers and other high functionaries in the Empire, and also by his having insisted, in opposition to the Ministry of Agriculture, M. Krivoshein, on the maintenance of the brandy monopoly as the safest and most productive source of the Imperial revenue. The new Premier was M. Goremykin, a reactionary bureaucrat who held the same post at the time of the first Duma (A.R., 1906, p. 319), and M. Bark, an eminent banker and a personal friend of M. Krivoshein, was appointed Minister of Finance. In a rescript addressed to the new Minister the Tsar directed him to carry out a policy of "radical reforms in the financial administration of the State and the economic life of the country," as "it is inadmissible to permit the favourable financial position of the State to depend on the destruction" (owing to the national vice of drunkenness) "of the moral and economic strength of the great multitude of Russian citizens, and it is therefore urgent that financial policy should be conducted on the principle of obtaining revenue, not from the sale of spirituous liquors, but from the produce of the inexhaustible wealth of the country and of the labour of the people." The Council of the Empire at the same time adopted a series of extremely drastic provisions in favour of temperance contained in a bill passed by the Duma, at the instigation of the peasant deputies, giving powers of local option to all communes, townships, and villages by a simple majority, with the right either of completely prohibiting the sale of liquor or restricting it to specified shops to be opened on certain days or at certain hours; women being allowed to vote on these matters. Count Witte, who with M. Kokovtsoff, had been the founder of the brandy monopoly, now joined the opposition to it, declaring that he had made "a mistake which was leading Russia to her ruin." According to his estimate, the total revenue derived from the monopoly was about 100,000,000l. and had been increasing every year since it was established. The first step towards temperance reform was taken on March 26, when an order was issued to suspend the sale of spirits at all railway stations; it was also announced that the penalties on illicit trading in spirits would be increased, that the people would be taught the advantages of temperance in the churches and schools, and that the plea of extenuating circumstances would not be admitted in the case of crimes committed under the influence of drink. The outbreak of the war in August gave the movement a new impetus; the Government shops for the sale of spirits were nearly all closed, and it was announced by the Tsar in October that they would not be opened again. The result of this measure was not only an enormous increase of the efficiency of the troops, but of the wealth of the peasantry, which instead of being dissipated in drink was employed in agricultural improvements and a great increase of their investments in savings banks. A further result of the interest taken by the Tsar in the moral and physical welfare of his people was the creation of a "Department of Physical Culture," for the promotion of outdoor sports, and during the war the sale of spirits was strictly forbidden in all the Galician towns occupied by the Russians; the keeper of a restaurant at Lemberg was fined 2,000 crowns (83l. 6s. 8d.) for having sold a customer a glass of cognac. The chief difficulty in the adoption of the proposed reforms was that which had hampered the Tsar's intentions since the issue of the October manifesto of 1905 (A.R., 1905, p. 319), namely the want of harmonious co-operation between the Ministry and the Legislature on the one hand, and the members themselves of the Ministry on the other. The new Premier, M. Goremykin, was appointed by the Tsar without a Ministerial portfolio, apparently with the object of placing him above departmental rivalries, and he was directed by an Imperial Rescript on March 20 "to work in harmony with the Legislature." Cooperation with the Duma was attempted by conferences between the Premier and its leading members, the intention being, if it should prove impossible to secure a majority for the proposed reforms, to hold a general election. The first of these conferences held in the Duma did not relate to internal reforms, however, but to a proposal made by the Government to increase the peace effectives of the Army by 460,000 men, bringing up the total to 1,700,000, at an extra cost of 50,000,000l. spread over three years. This was the Russian answer to the increase of the German Army in 1913 (A.R., 1913, p. 307), and to an anti-Russian campaign in the German and Austro-Hungarian Press, and all the Russian party leaders, except the Socialists, sanctioned the proposal. It was further determined, with the consent of the Duma, that the service of time-expired men should be prolonged for three months after the legal limit, which brought up the peace effective at once to almost the number fixed above.
The Russian Foreign Minister, M. Sazonoff, made a remarkable statement on the subject to a representative of the Hungarian Journal Az Est. He said that he could not understand the reason of the excitement in Germany and Austria-Hungary with regard to Russia; tension certainly did exist between the monarchy and Russia in the previous year, but the relations between the two countries were now "excellent." The increase of armaments, he continued, was initiated by Germany, whose initiative had reacted on France, and led to an increase of the peace strength of Austria-Hungary; it was therefore natural that Russia should have taken steps in the same direction. With a birth rate of 2,500,000 she could allow herself "the luxury" of an increase in the peace footing of her Army. A "test mobilisation" of about 500,000 reservists was begun on April 15, and in June the Duma approved of an extraordinary credit of 10,000,000l. for the construction of warships for the Black Sea Fleet, to be spent on one 27,000-ton Dreadnought, two 7,500-ton cruisers, eight torpedo boats and six submarines, all to be built at Nikolaieff and commissioned not later than the spring of 1917. The Minister of Finance at the same time stated that Russia would have to spend 752,000,000l. in the next five years for the Army and Navy.
On April 2 the Imperial assent was given to a bill providing that married women, separated from their husbands, should enjoy full liberty of movement and enjoyment of property, even if minors, and that the courts shall have no power to order restitution of conjugal rights; cruelty to the children, rudeness, violence, dishonesty, immorality, or dangerous or loathsome illness to be sufficient cause for separation, and the husband to provide alimony, the care of the children being awarded to the injured party.
The report of the Budget Committee of the Duma on the Budget for 1914 was issued on April 6. It fixed the expenditure at 358,032,609l., or nearly 33,000,000l. more than in 1913, and the revenue at 361,265,916l., or 36,200,000l. more than in 1913, and proposed that the surplus of 3,233,109l. should be devoted to the building of ways of communication, also that as the temperance campaign was likely to diminish the revenue, fresh taxes should be introduced. The Opposition groups took advantage of the debate on the Budget to protest against the intended prosecution of one of their leaders, M. Tcheidze, for propagating Republican ideas. Hereupon, on the proposal of the President, the Duma voted the suspension for a fortnight of fifteen Socialists, including M. Tcheidze, who were removed by the Serjeant-at-Arms and the guard. Notwithstanding the efforts of M. Gozemykin to establish more friendly relations between the Government and the Duma, there was no alleviation of the discontent manifested by all classes in the previous year (A.R., 1913, p. 336). On May 17, after voting a reduction in the Home Office Estimates as a protest against its policy, the Duma, by 186 votes against 95, censured M. Maklakoff, the Home Minister, for his persistent disregard of the representative institutions of the Empire, thereby "undermining the welfare and safety of the State." In June there was a serious crisis on the Stock Exchange at St. Petersburg, ascribed chiefly to the reactionary and repressive policy of the Home Minister, who discouraged foreign capital by the vexatious restrictions imposed upon joint stock companies with regard to the participation of Jews in their management. He was also held responsible for the enormous increase in so-called political strikes (A.R., 1913, p. 336), the work of a clandestine organisation which threatened to paralyse trade and industry. In the May-day strike 130,000 men took part in St. Petersburg alone, and such widespread drunkenness had never before been observed among the working-men. The strikes continued through the months of June and July; on July 23 there was fighting in different parts of the capital until midnight, the strikers having raised barricades against the police, upon which they were charged by the Cossacks, many being killed and wounded. On the following day 110,000 workmen were still out on strike, and the Novoe Vremya, the most influential of the Russian papers, declared that the existing system of police repression had proved a failure, and "unorganised masses had been thrown defenceless under the yoke of revolutionary agitators," adding that both the Government and public opinion were responsible for the abominable excesses which had disgraced Russia. The strikes ceased, however, on July 26 without further recourse to violence, and they were not renewed in view of the greater issues confronting the Empire.
On July 13 Gregory Rasputin, the peasant "fakir" whose influence with the Empress and the ladies of the Russian Court had given rise to much scandal in the society of the capital, was stabbed in his house near Tobolsk by a woman, a follower of his rivals the monk Heliodorus and Bishop Hermogen, who had sought to obtain his banishment. A report presented by the Holy Synod to the Tsar stated that defections from the "Orthodox" faith were growing more and more numerous, and that the Socialists and others, dreaming of a new revolution, were sapping the foundations of the Church. The seceders were mostly Baptists, Stundists, Old Believers, Flagellators, and Atheists.
The cordiality of the reception on June 24 of the officers of the British First Battle Cruiser Squadron at Tsarskoe Selo was somewhat marred by the unfavourable impression produced at St. Petersburg by the acquisition by the British Government of a preponderant interest in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (p. [123]), which Russian politicians regarded as tantamount to the establishment of British preponderance in the neutral zone in which the Anglo-Russia Convention of 1907 had stipulated equality of opportunity. In the Duma on May 24 M. Sazonoff, the Foreign Minister, had declared that the foreign policy of Russia "continued to be based on the unshakeable alliance with France and friendship with Great Britain; the establishment of a sound friendship between France and Great Britain, and also between Great Britain and Russia, had brought Great Britain within the sphere of political communion previously existing between Russia and France which had helped to maintain peace." Although there was not a formal alliance between Russia and Great Britain, there was a "political combination imposed by unity of aims," and therefore "friendly co-operation is assured irrespective of the form and the scope of the written word." The Triple Entente was "responsible for the equilibrium of Europe, and ever ready to co-operate with the Triple Alliance in the general interests of peace." Russia "continued to seek the maintenance of the old friendly relations with Germany," but unfortunately the endeavours of the two Governments in this direction "did not always meet with due support from the Press of their countries." As to Austria-Hungary the Minister merely re-echoed the friendly sentiments of Count Berchtold with regard to neighbourly relations, and in the Balkans, he said, Russia's task was pacification. "She would impartially assist all the Balkan States, asking in return only neutral sincerity and confidence." Her relations with Turkey had improved since the Balkan crisis, and she was disposed to assist Turkey in the internal reform of her Asiatic possessions, as "only the peaceful development of Turkey would assure the freedom of the navigation of the Straits"; and the conciliatory spirit of the Turkish Government was shown by its attitude towards Armenian reforms, in which matter "Germany had co-operated with Russia." Finally, M. Sazonoff said that a "comparative lull" had been noticeable of late in Persia, "thanks to the continued friendly co-operation of Russia and Great Britain and the efforts of the Russian legation and the Persian Cossack brigade in quelling disturbances in the Western districts." The majority of the Russian troops at Kazvin had consequently been recalled, but in the northern provinces order was still dependent on the presence of the Russian troops. Russian policy towards Persia, the Minister concluded, remained unchanged and was devoid of aggressive intentions. "Our object is, as hitherto, to contribute to the establishment in this bordering country, so closely joined to us by important economic interests, of that stable order so necessary for the further development of our mutual commercial relations and the progress of Persia herself."
The visit of President Poincaré to Russia (July 20) elicited an enthusiastic welcome on the part of the people, and on July 23 the Tsar, in proposing the toast of the President and France, said that France and Russia had for nearly a quarter of a century been bound by close ties in order the better to pursue the same end, "which consists in safeguarding their interests by collaborating in the equilibrium and the peace of Europe," adding that he was convinced that "the two countries will continue to enjoy the benefit of peace," remarkable words, considering that they were spoken only a few days before Europe was plunged into war.