The condition of the cotton crop on July 25 was 70.8% of normal, according to the estimate made by the U. S. Department of Agriculture on Aug. 1. Compared with the condition of 71.2% on June 25, this shows a decrease in condition of 0.4% for the month. The average condition of the cotton crop on July 25 for the past 10 years stands at 73% of normal.
A condition of 70.8% of normal on July 25 this year forecasts a yield per acre of about 157.2 lbs. and a total production of about 11,449,000 bales of 500 lbs. gross weight each. The final outturn may be larger or smaller than this amount, of course, depending upon whether or not the conditions that develop during the remainder of the season prove more or less favorable to the crop than such conditions ordinarily prove.
| Condition of the Cotton Crop on July 25, with Comparisons. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [100 = normal.] | |||||||
| State. | July 25. | June 25, 1922. | July 25, 1922. | Change, June 25 to July 25. | |||
| 10–yr. av. | 1920 | 1921 | 10 yr. av. | 1922 | |||
| Virginia | 81 | 74 | 82 | 85 | 80 | 0 | –5 |
| North Carolina | 77 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 78 | –1 | +2 |
| South Carolina | 73 | 77 | 62 | 60 | 60 | –2 | 0 |
| Georgia | 71 | 68 | 59 | 58 | 54 | –3 | –4 |
| Florida | 71 | 64 | 60 | 75 | 65 | –5 | –10 |
| Alabama | 69 | 67 | 58 | 68 | 70 | –5 | +2 |
| Mississippi | 72 | 71 | 68 | 76 | 74 | –4 | –2 |
| Louisiana | 70 | 71 | 59 | 69 | 70 | –7 | +1 |
| Texas | 72 | 74 | 62 | 72 | 72 | –6 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 76 | 78 | 76 | 80 | 81 | –3 | +1 |
| Tennessee | 78 | 76 | 75 | 83 | 85 | 0 | +2 |
| Missouri | 80 | 81 | 80 | 92 | 90 | 0 | –2 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 85 | 68 | 76 | 75 | –2 | –1 |
| California | 95 | 85 | 83 | 91 | 95 | +2 | +4 |
| Arizona | [[1]]90 | 85 | 89 | 85 | 86 | [[1]]+1 | +1 |
| New Mexico | 85 | 88 | 85 | 85 | 0 | ||
| United States | 73.0 | 74.1 | 64.7 | 71.2 | 70.8 | –3.9 | –0.4 |
Last year the production was 7,953,641 bales, two years ago 13,439,603 bales, three years ago 11,420,763 bales, four years ago 12,040,532 bales, and five years ago 11,302,375 bales.
The 1922 acreage of Egyptian type cotton is estimated at 80,000 acres in Arizona and less than 1,000 acres in California. In 1921 Arizona had 75,000 acres and California 9,000 acres, while in 1920 the estimate for Arizona was 200,000 acres and for California 45,000 acres.
The department’s estimate of cotton acreage in cultivation on June 25, which was made public on July 3, remains unchanged at 34,852,000 acres because the acreage abandoned before that date was excluded. A great decrease in cotton acreage followed the high acreage of 1920, which was 37,043,000 acres, because of the disastrous break in prices to growers in that year.
The accompanying table gives detailed information on the condition of the cotton crop on July 25, by States, together with comparisons.
Paradox in Forecast Yield of Crop per Acre as Indicated by Condition.
A crop may deteriorate in condition during a growing month and yet its yield per acre as forecast by a computation based on the lowered condition may increase. In the average of crop experiences during the growing period a certain crop declines in condition during a certain month by a certain percentage of a normal condition.
For instance, the cotton crop has a record of a deterioration of 3.9% of a normal condition from June 25 to July 25 in the average of the last 10 years. As a matter of fact, however, during this period in 1922 the deterioration in the condition of the cotton crop was only 0.4%. This is clearly a relative improvement because it is less than the usual deterioration of 3.9%. Hence the yield per acre in the forecast for July 25 must be greater than in the forecast made a month earlier, notwithstanding the absolute decline in condition.