Adding to this total the charter limits of the two American companies now operating, the grand total is raised to 48,400 cubic feet per second. This of itself is a dry fact and does not form much of a percentage of the whole volume going over the Falls. Such a loss would not mean so much if it would manifest itself the same along the whole crest of the line of the cliff; but here must be taken into consideration the configuration of the bed of the river.
The bed of Niagara is composed of rock which dips gradually and uniformly westward. The ledge is ten feet higher on the American side than on the Canadian. The water of the American fall is therefore ten feet shallower. The amount of water going over the Falls has been variously estimated, engineers differing in their conclusions as much as sixty thousand cubic feet per second. Averages based upon the estimates of United States engineers for forty years, of the amount of mean flow of water passing Buffalo from Lake Erie, shows 222,400 cubic feet per second. This of course does not make allowance for that taken by the Welland and the Erie canals. This is probably about equalised by the amount entering the lake and river between this city and the Falls, so that the figures forming the basis of most computations are 224,000 cubic feet per second. The amount of power capable of development by the Falls is about 3,800,000 horse-power, which would be greatly increased by adding the fall from the beginning of the rapids to the crest of the cataract. Goat Island, situated just off the American shore, divides the waters very unevenly, sending more than three-fourths the volume toward the Canadian shore. Now, as has been seen, less than one-fourth the whole volume pours down the American channel; and as this is much shallower than the main body of water, it is here that any diminished flow will be first felt. At the head of the island the great body of the current turns toward the west, by far the larger amount converging into the funnel of the magnificent Horseshoe Falls. The American channel in contrast contains a very feeble flow, and therefore would be the first to exhibit any dearth of water.
Calculations based upon the preceding figures, taking into consideration the length of the Falls, and the difference in elevation of the river's bed at the crest, show that when the flow has been reduced by 184,000 cubic feet per second, or by 40,000 cubic feet, the water in the American channel will be brought down to the rock bottom of the shore's edge. Then, although the Horseshoe Falls will continue to be an object of admiration to the traveller, and although the current will continue to sweep through the American channel and over the American Falls, the beauty and grandeur of the latter will fade away. Let the amount of water abstracted from the river be doubled, and, though the Canadian Falls would still continue an object of admiration, the American channel would be entirely dry.
Returning to the present and immediately contemplated draft upon the river's waters, we find that the two American and the three Canadian companies, when using their charter limits, will take 48,000 cubic feet per second. This will bring the level at the crest of the Falls down to the bottom of the river at the American shore. This, then, is the immediate prospect. Many things may intervene before this point is reached. We are not permitted to stop, however, with the consideration of these five companies alone. One of the last organisations chartered by the State of New York to obtain water from Niagara is the Niagara Lockport and Ontario Power Company. In 1894, this company obtained a franchise placing no restriction upon the amount of water to be used, and limited to ten years in which to begin work. In 1904, they came again to the Legislature, asking for an improved charter in several respects, especially a lengthening of time in which to begin operations. This company proposed to take water from near La Salle and not to return it to the river at all, but to take it overland by canal to Lockport and then empty it directly into Lake Ontario. The bill providing for this charter passed both houses, but it was vetoed by Governor Odell. The veto took place on May 15, 1904. The original charter was granted on May 21, 1894. Six days of grace yet remained of the ten years allowed the company. There is said to be a slender, shallow ditch south of Lockport, which represents the work done in the six days left. It has been rumoured that the most of this company's stock has passed into the hands of a great corporation. Undoubtedly, under some form of reorganisation, there will, in the near future, be an attempt on the part of its members to gain a share of the great free power of Niagara. Under the old charter, which does not limit the amount of water to be consumed, it will probably not consume less than the other large companies, say 10,000 cubic feet per second.
But the only danger to the life of the Falls is not to be found alone in the Niagara power companies. Six hundred miles to the west is the Chicago Main Drainage Canal, which at first took from the Lakes about three thousand cubic feet per minute. Many propositions have been made to enlarge this canal. These are fraught with taxing engineering problems; but it is difficult to say just what the future has in store in this line. This, however, is not all; Canada, in the hope of gaining part of the commerce of the Great Lakes for the St. Lawrence, has proposed a canal by way of Georgian Bay and the Ottawa River, thus shortening the lake route by five hundred miles. To these may be added propositions for a deep-water connection between the Lakes and the Hudson, between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Superior, between Toronto and Lake Huron, the demands of Cincinnati and Pittsburg for canals, Wisconsin's desire for a canal connecting the Lakes through her territory with the Mississippi, the plan for a canal from Duluth to the Mississippi; and one may see with what danger this great natural wonder is threatened. Many of these proposed plans, doubtless, will never be realised; some on account of engineering difficulties, others on account of the failure of their projectors to count upon the true relation between cost of construction and what would likely be the revenue obtained. All these subjects, however, must be given due consideration by one who desires to know what is considered to be the immediate danger to the Falls, or that which may effect them at no very distant future date.
On January 18, 1907, Secretary of War Taft rendered a decision under the Burton Act for the preservation of Niagara Falls on the applications of American companies for the use of water and of Canadian companies wishing to send electric power into the United States, and at the same time announced the appointment of a commission to beautify the vicinity of the Falls. The amount of water allowed to companies in New York is practically that now used, and substantially as limited by the Act of Congress as a maximum. The Secretary found no evidence that the flow over the American Falls has been injuriously affected in recent years. The claims of the Canadian companies, acting in conjunction with electric companies on this side of the river, had to be materially cut down to come within the law limiting the total current to 160,000 horse-power. The allotments in electric horse-power to be transmitted to the United States are as follows:
The International Railway Company, 1500. (8000 asked).
The Ontario Power Company, 60,000 (90,000 asked).
The Canadian Niagara Falls Power Company, 52,500 (121,500 asked).
The Electrical Development Company, 46,000 (62,000 asked).