Special Danger of Speculating in a Stock that is quoted very wide.
If there be any difference in the character of the “turn” as compared with former times, it must be allowed that there is a point in favour of the speculator: whether it be more apparent than real, owing to the growth of other adverse influences is another matter. But it is certain that the “turn” is not so great in these times as it used to be, and it comes from the increase of competition by the larger number of jobbers in the markets, just as commissions in all businesses have dwindled down from two and three per cent., and in some cases much more, to ¼ and ½, and in the Stock markets to ⅟₁₆ and even a ⅟₃₂. It should, however, be remarked that, owing to the great increase in the number of transactions, the jobber makes more in these times by the smaller “turns” than he did formerly out of the large ones, the increase being in a greater ratio than the diminution in the amount of the single “turn.” Moreover the public, as it is to be hoped should be the case with the growth of intelligence and the spread of education and wealth, decline to buy stocks when very wide prices are quoted to them from the jobbers. It stands to reason that the jobbers rather enjoy dealing in stocks where there is a good deal of cover for them to play with their prey. A difference of two or three per cent. between the buying and selling price affords the jobber much more scope in fixing the “turn” he is to get out of a transaction. The wide quotations between a buying and selling price are no doubt to some extent a legitimately justifiable defence against the sudden and perhaps violent fluctuations to which an indifferent security is exposed, and it is on this account the price is made wide. As the public, however, get to know and understand that a stock which is quoted say 35 to 38, as compared with one that is quoted 85 ⁵⁄₁₆ to ⁷⁄₁₆ is in proportion to the difference between the extremes of the two figures, a worse security, so they instinctively avoid any operations at all where there is no knowing from one moment to the other whether their property is worth one per cent. more or less. In fact many young operators have been electrified to find that, having purchased on speculation some stock of the character of that quoted above at 35 to 38, and wishing to get out of the bargain, for some reason or other, there was a difference between the buying and the selling price of actually as much as that indicated, viz.: 3 per cent. Ruinous mistakes by the unwary are thus made. They fancy very naturally that a stock which is subject to violent fluctuations, and which is seen to fall and rise two or three per cent. in a day, is a fine field to operate in; but the compensation which is in all things, soon reveals itself here in the manner described, so that the speculator stands perhaps even less chance of making a profit off a widely fluctuating security than he would by one that moved to a smaller extent over or under a central point of value from which there was not so much movement.
Then again, a jobber is willing to take a much smaller “turn” on a transaction which he can depend upon closing in his own book at any moment, at probably only a fractional difference in price from that at which he opened it. A speculator wishes, for instance, to buy £10,000 Consols for the rise at 92½. At the time the transaction is done the jobber knows he can any moment square his book as far as that operation is concerned, within a trifle of the same figure, and he is accordingly satisfied with a small “turn.”
On the other hand, a stock that fluctuates violently may leave a buyer of it a loss of one or two per cent. before he has entered the operation in his book. The consequence is that a speculator proposing to buy for the rise £2,000 of a stock which is quoted in the markets at 35 to 38, will have probably to pay 38 or near about that for it, for the simple reason that the jobber who sells knows that a widely-quoted stock is liable to unusual movements in both directions, and he protects himself accordingly, by declining to sell except at the higher figure, or to buy except at or below the lowest. The difference may even be wider than in this hypothetical case. The stock may recently have become very much depreciated in value, which carries with it the obvious suggestion that it may fall still further indefinitely, short of the bottom, for reasons which have so far contributed to depress it. Under such circumstances, unless the jobbers in the markets have limits at which to buy such a security, they probably will refuse to purchase from an outside seller, or from anybody, at any price, unless it come within the range of a fancy figure. With stocks, therefore, that are liable to sudden and considerable changes in value, the “turn” assumes dimensions in proportion, and speculation in such securities is correspondingly dangerous.
The “Turn” the Income of the Jobber.
For every operation that a speculator enters upon, he contributes to the income of the jobber. Although this statement is perhaps not literally accurate, inasmuch as the jobber may sometimes have to sacrifice his “turn,” and even more, in selling stocks which he has bought in the course of his business, or in buying back stock which he has sold, it is sufficiently accurate as demonstrating the position of the speculator. Whether or not subsequent circumstances deprive the jobber of the turn he considers himself in the ordinary course of events to have secured, the speculator has in any case paid it, which is all we are concerned to show.[45]
CHAPTER XIV.
IN THAT RESPECT IS SPECULATION USEFUL IN MARKETS GENERALLY?
Speculation for the Rise, which is both Legitimate and of Benefit to the Community.