On this last point, now, I believe, they are mistaken, be they ever so strongly convinced of the correctness of their view and ever so aggressive and embittered in their defence of it.

Recently, an inquirer of great caution and calmness of judgment, Prof. C. Lloyd Morgan, has expressed the opinion that the Lamarckian principle must at least be admitted as a working hypothesis. But with this I cannot agree, at least as things stand at present. A working hypothesis may be false, and yet lead to further progress; that is, it may constitute an advance to the extent of being useful in formulating the problem and in illuminating paths that are likely to lead to results. But it seems to me that a hypothesis of this kind has performed its services and must be discarded the moment it is found to be at hopeless variance with the facts. If it can be proved that precisely the same degenerative processes also take place in such superfluous parts as have only passive and not active functions, as is the case with the chitinous parts of the skeleton of Arthropoda, then it is a demonstrated fact, that the cessation of functional action is not the efficient cause of the process of degeneration. At once your legitimate working hypothesis is transformed into an illegitimate dogma—illegitimate because it no longer serves as a guide on the path to knowledge but

blocks that path. For the person who is convinced he has found the right explanation is not going to seek for it.

I can understand perfectly well the hesitation that has prevailed on this point in many minds, from their having seen one aspect of the facts more distinctly than the other. From this sceptical point of view Osborn has drawn the following perfectly correct conclusion: "If acquired variations are transmitted, there must be some unknown principle in heredity; if they are not transmitted, there must be some unknown factor in evolution."[[12]]

Such in fact is the case and I shall attempt to point out to you what this factor is. My inference is a very simple one: if we are forced by the facts on all hands to the assumption that the useful variations which render selection possible are always present, then some profound connection must exist between the utility of a variation and its actual appearance, or, in other words, the direction of the variation of a part must be determined by utility, and we shall have to see whether facts exist that confirm our conjecture.

The facts do indeed exist and lie before our very eyes, despite their not having been recognised as such before. All artificial selection practised by man rests on the fact that by means of the selection of individuals having a given character slightly more pronounced than usual, there is gradually produced a general augmentation of this character, which subsequently reaches a point never before attained by any individual

of this species. I shall choose an example which seems to me especially clear and simple because only one character has been substantially modified here. The long-tailed variety of domestic cock, now bred in Japan and Corea, owes its existence to skilful selection and not at all to the circumstance that at some period of the race's history a cock with tail-feathers six feet in length suddenly and spasmodically appeared. At the present day even, as Professor Ishikawa of Tokio writes me, the breeders still make extraordinary efforts to increase the length of the tail, and every inch gained adds considerably to the value of the bird. Now nothing has been done here whatever except always to select for purposes of breeding the cocks with the longest feathers; and in this way alone were these feathers, after the lapse of many generations, prolonged to a length far exceeding every previous variation.

I once asked a famous dove-fancier, Mr. W. B. Tegetmeier of London, whether it was his opinion that by artificial selection alone a character could be augmented. He thought a long time and finally said: "It is without our power to do anything if the variation which we seek is not presented, but once that variation is given, then I think the augmentation can be effected." And that in fact is the case. If cocks had never existed whose tail-feathers were a little longer than usual the Japanese breed could never have originated; but as the facts are, always the cocks with the longest feathers were chosen from each generation, and these only were bred, and thus a hereditary augmentation of the character in question was effected, which would hardly have been deemed possible.

Now what does this mean? Simply that the

hereditary diathesis, the constitutional predisposition (Anlage) of the breed was changed in the respect in question, and our conclusion from this and numerous similar facts of artificial selection runs as follows: by the selection alone of the plus or minus variations of a character is the constant modification of that character in the plus or minus direction determined. Obviously the hereditary diminution of a part is also effected by the simple selection of the individuals in each generation possessing the smallest parts, as is proved, for example, by the tiny bills and feet of numerous breeds of doves. We may assert, therefore, in general terms: a definitely directed progressive variation of a given part is produced by continued selection in that definite direction. This is no hypothesis, but a direct inference from the facts and may also be expressed as follows: By a selection of the kind referred to the germ is progressively modified in a manner corresponding with the production of a definitely directed progressive variation of the part.