“The object of the English in encouraging Japan to make a bold front against the United States was and is, like all their objects, purely commercial. They hoped to stir up in the Japanese mind an ill-feeling that would prevent the award of any more contracts to American shipyards, and even this characteristic stratagem is not likely to have more than a temporary effect. Thus I think it may be assumed that Japan’s immense naval preparation is not made with the United States in hostile view; certainly not mainly.
“Assuming these conditions to be beyond dispute, and considering that the completion of the Trans-Siberian railway will at once make Russia a great Pacific power, politically and commercially, her naval situation in those seas must become a matter of prime importance; perhaps not of equal importance with that of the United States now, but at once sufficient to challenge the best efforts of her statesmen.
“Having all these facts in view, and being in a position to judge with some accuracy of the significance and value of preparations which came under my own observation during a recent tour of Europe in my professional capacity, I could not help remarking the vast difference between the naval activity of Japan and that of the other two first-rate pacific powers, Russia and the United States. The existing situation in Russia and the United States, relatively speaking, can hardly be called more than the merest perfunctory progress, whereas the activity of Japan is really marvellous. If she were simply meditating another attack on China alone or unsupported, no such fleet as Japan is now building would be needed; certainly not the enormous battleships and the great armored cruisers. It must therefore be assumed that Japan’s purpose is the general one of predominant sea power in the Orient.
“Japan may, and probably does, meditate a renewal of her efforts to establish a footing on the Asiatic mainland. Possibly, she may have in view the ultimate acquisition of the Philippine Islands! (This was written the year before the Spanish War.) But, whatever may be her territorial ambitions for the future, it is as plain as an open book that she intends, before she moves again, to place herself in a position to disregard and defy any external interference. This may be the true meaning of Japan’s extreme activity in naval preparation at this time.
“I may say without violation of confidence that a Japanese gentleman of distinction, a civilian, not long ago remarked in conversation on this subject that ‘while Japan was forced by circumstances to yield much at Shimonoseki that she had fairly conquered, she still secured indemnity enough to build a navy that would enable her to do better next time!’
“In view of all these facts, the question at once arises: Are Russia and the United States prepared or are they preparing to meet such conditions, and to maintain their proper naval status as Pacific powers? My answer to that question, based on observations of Japan’s naval strength already in sight and on what I know of her intended programme for further increase in the immediate future, as compared with the relative conditions of Russia and this country, would be in the negative.
“Just now Russia is trying the experiment of reliance on her own Imperial dock-yards, including two semi-private shipyards under government control; while the United States has halted completely. The Russian dock-yards are efficient, as far as they go, and turn out good work, judging from such specimens as I have seen. But their capacity is not adequate to the task that is presented by the situation which I have delineated. No other nation relies wholly on its own public dock-yards for new naval constructions. England, with public dock-yards almost equal in capacity to those of the rest of the world combined, builds over 65 per cent. of her displacement and 97 per cent. of her horse-power by contract with private shipyards and machine-shops. France, with very great dock-yard facilities, builds a large proportion of her hulls and machinery by contract. The same is true of Germany, Italy, and the United States. But Russia has no great private ship-building facilities, and there are no visible signs of the immediate development of resources of that description.
“Japan, on the contrary, though she has some facilities of her own, is drawing upon the very best resources elsewhere to be found; she is drawing on the ship-building power at once of England, France, Germany, and the United States. Not only that, but more than that; the vessels Japan is building in the shipyards of England, France, and Germany are superior to any vessels those nations are building for themselves, class for class.
“Hence, viewing the situation from any point at will, the conclusion of any one qualified to judge must be that, in the race for naval supremacy in the Pacific, Japan is gaining, while Russia and the United States are losing ground.
“It requires little prescience to discern that the issue which is to settle that question of supremacy as between the powers may not be long deferred.