Her acquisitions from independent Tartary since 1844 are more than four times greater in extent than the British Isles. The advance of the Russian frontier from Orenburg to Samarkand is about 800 miles.
Every mail from India brings intelligence of further Russian progress or conquest. The position at which we have placed her is within 200 miles of Cabul, and 400 of Jellalabad and Cashmere. Nothing but the mountains of Cashmere and Cabul separate the Russians from British India. Foiled and driven back by the results of the Crimean war, Russia changed her line of aggression from facing directly through Turkey, Persia, and so to Hindoostan; but, by concentrating her forces upon and crushing poor Circassia (which might have been protected with almost more reason than Turkey was), she opened a direct passage to Persia upon the west of the Caspian Sea, whilst at the same time other legions were carrying her frontier line at a quick march through Tartary to the eastward. The command of the Bosphorus would have made the Black Sea a Russian lake, and the only assailable flank of a march into Persia would have been protected against the great naval Powers. That position has been par force abandoned, but Russia has succeeded in obtaining another almost equally good. By her extraordinary efforts against Circassia she has at length managed to obtain the long-coveted Caucasian Mountains. These, in the hands of a comparatively small force, constitute an effectual barrier to any foreign offensive movement against her operations on, and to the eastward of, the Caspian Sea. Thus it is palpable that no European Power could in Europe, upon equal terms, or with a chance of success, oppose her designs on the southern and eastern portions of Asia. Meanwhile she is steadily possessing herself of the territory yet independent on the frontiers of India and Thibet. During the last few years she has successfully absorbed Khiva, the territories of the Kirghiz and Kalpak Tartars, the provinces of Turkestan, and the principal points of Kokan. The great cities of Tashkend and Samarkand are in Russian hands, and the last mail from India (December, 1865) announces that war has commenced between them and Bokhara—the last independent kingdom of Tartary. There is an old Muscovite prediction, which declares: "When the Russians shall have conquered Samarkand, and shall have returned to the cradle of their Tartar ancestors, there shall be but one rule in Asia, and the Mongols and Tartars united shall brave the whole world." Certainly this prophecy is in progress; it remains to be seen whether it will be accomplished.
The last telegrams report that the Russians are within six miles of Bokhara, the capital of the country of that name, and that many thousands of workmen are engaged constructing their military roads through that kingdom. And where are these roads leading? In a direct line for the nearest portion of British India! Perhaps the Russians only wish to build summer-houses on the northern slopes of the mountains of Cashmere, though it is strange military roads and large bodies of troops are required for such a purpose. Perhaps they wish to get on the other side of these mountains,—time will show.
Such is the present (December, 1865) position of Russia in Asia; but already there are signs indicative of a much farther progress. Already the people a little beyond her advancing frontier are in turmoil and confusion. Kashgar, Yarkend, and other portions of eastern Thibet, together with Cabul, being in anarchy, and waiting for the arrival of the pacificating, absorbing invader, whilst the great Mongolian province of I-li has thrown off its allegiance to the Emperor of China. Already the next nations are breaking up like fallow earth before the resistless ploughshare.
The Bombay Mail of December 13th states:—
"Many reports are current of commotions in the Affghan states and along the Punjaub frontier.... The internal commotions in Cabul continue.... An envoy from Kotan has arrived at Cashmere.... The object of his visit is said to be to offer the Empress of India the allegiance of Kotan, in return for an assurance of protection from the Russians.... The inhabitants of Soket, in the hills north of Jullunder, lately made an attack on Mundi.... The country near Yarkand is reported to be in a state of insurrection. It is conjectured that this manifestation of revolt is an indication of some greater power having instigated it, having for its object the creation of universal revolt, and thus breaking the influence of China in these parts.
"An affray recently took place between the sepoys of the Jeypore Rajah and the Rajah of Khetra, in which several lives were lost. Government have called upon the former chief for explanations.
"Advices from the north-western frontier indicate the necessity for being more than ever on the alert against the increasing raids by various sects. Letters recently received report that the Wahabee Moulvies at Sittana have been purchasing the favour of the Akhoond of Swat, who was to stir up the tribes to a united effort against the British.
"It is reported from Peshawur that the Afreedies are very restless, and inclined to give trouble. This tribe occupies the hills all along the western side of the Peshawur Valley, and their territory interposes between the Peshawur and Kohat districts. They can muster some 20,000 fighting men, all of them as good soldiers as can be found on the frontier."
It is quite plain to those who have studied the question, that Russian progress towards India and China is seriously affecting the material and commercial interests of Great Britain. For some years the Russians have successfully competed with British merchants in China. Although their trade has been carried on through a vast extent of territory, still the import of Russian woollen and other manufactured goods, viâ Irkoutsk, Kiachta, and Mongolia, has been sufficient to suit and satisfy the market of Western, Northern, and Central China, besides Mongolia and Thibet. Every day increases this commerce, and makes it less expensive. Russia brings into the contest with England (whether it be commercial or military) overwhelming natural advantages. She is rapidly extending her railway and telegraphic lines throughout her Asiatic dominions; and these, besides serving to introduce the sciences, arts, and mechanical inventions of modern civilization, are being constructed for the conveyance of armies to the utmost limits of her empire. It is quite possible that, by the time the Russian frontier joins that of India, railway communication will be extended to the same point, and afford the opportunity of conveying large bodies of troops. Russia undoubtedly has a great future in Asia, and it is difficult to see how England can ultimately avoid yielding before the natural advantages that will be brought into the field against her—for that they will be so employed one cannot doubt; unless, indeed, there be some charm by which British interests are made sacred to her rival, and certainly the Russians are not likely to prefer a barren steppe of Tartary to a rich slice of India. As for the principle of the thing, the less said about that the better. Considering the manner in which England obtained her dominions in Hindoostan, the Russians have quite as much right to take them, if they can; and why should we flatter ourselves that they will not try when they become our neighbours, when we see them indiscriminately seizing all territories which lie in their way?