I made the three following hypotheses:—1st. The Prussians will await Napoleon's attack behind the Elbe, and will fight on the defensive as far as the Oder, in expectation of aid from Russia and Austria; 2d. Or they will advance upon the Saale, resting their left upon the frontier of Bohemia and defending the passes of the mountains of Franconia; 3d. Or else, expecting the French by the great Mayence road, they will advance imprudently to Erfurt.
I do not believe any other suppositions could be made, unless the Prussians were thought to be so foolish as to divide their forces, already inferior to the French, upon the two directions of Wesel and Mayence,—a useless mistake, since there had not been a French soldier on the first of these roads since the Seven Years' War.
These hypotheses having been made as above stated, if any one should ask what course Napoleon ought to pursue, it was easy to reply "that the mass of the French army being already assembled in Bavaria, it should be thrown upon the left of the Prussians by way of Grera and Hof, for the gordian knot of the campaign was in that direction, no matter what plan they should adopt."
If they advanced to Erfurt, he could move to Gera, cut their line of retreat, and press them back along the Lower Elbe to the North Sea. If they rested upon the Saale, he could attack their left by way of Hof and Gera, defeat them partially, and reach Berlin before them by way of Leipsic. If they stood fast behind the Elbe, he must still attack them by way of Gera and Hof.
Since Napoleon's direction of operations was so clearly fixed, what mattered it to him to know the details of their movements? Being certain of the correctness of these principles, I did not hesitate to announce, a month before the war, that Napoleon would attempt just what he did, and that if the Prussians passed the Saale battles would take place at Jena and Naumburg!
I relate this circumstance not from a feeling of vanity, for if that were my motive I might mention many more of a similar character. I have only been anxious to show that in war a plan of operations may be often arranged, simply based upon the general principles of the art, without much attention being of necessity given to the details of the enemy's movements.
Returning to our subject, I must state that the use of spies has been neglected to a remarkable degree in many modern armies. In 1813 the staff of Prince Schwarzenberg had not a single sou for expenditure for such services, and the Emperor Alexander was obliged to furnish the staff officers with funds from his own private purse to enable them to send agents into Lusatia for the purpose of finding out Napoleon's whereabouts. General Mack at Ulm, and the Duke of Brunswick in 1806, were no better informed; and the French generals in Spain often suffered severely, because it was impossible to obtain spies and to get information as to what was going on around them.
The Russian army is better provided than any other for gathering information, by the use of roving bodies of Cossacks; and history confirms my assertion.
The expedition of Prince Koudacheff, who was sent after the battle of Dresden to the Prince of Sweden, and who crossed the Elbe by swimming and marched in the midst of the French columns as far, nearly, as Wittenberg, is a remarkable instance of this class. The information furnished by the partisan troops of Generals Czernicheff, Benkendorf, Davidoff, and Seslawin was exceedingly valuable. We may recollect it was through a dispatch from Napoleon to the Empress Maria Louisa, intercepted near Châlons by the Cossacks, that the allies were informed of the plan he had formed of falling upon their communications with his whole disposable force, basing his operations upon the fortified towns of Lorraine and Alsace. This highly-important piece of information decided Blücher and Schwarzenberg to effect a junction of their armies, which the plainest principles of strategy had never previously brought to act in concert except at Leipsic and Brienne.
We know, also, that the warning given by Seslawin to General Doctoroff saved him from being crushed at Borovsk by Napoleon, who had just left Moscow in retreat with his whole army. Doctoroff did not at first credit this news,—which so irritated Seslawin that he effected the capture of a French officer and several soldiers of the guard from the French bivouacs and sent them as proofs of its correctness. This warning, which decided the march of Koutousoff to Maloi-Yaroslavitz, prevented Napoleon from taking the way by Kalouga, where he would have found greater facilities for refitting his army and would have escaped the disastrous days of Krasnoi and the Beresina. The catastrophe which befell him would thus have been lessened, though not entirely prevented.