Lord Clarendon to Lord Lyons.
Foreign Office, June 8, 1870.
I have nothing of importance to write about.
Loftus says that the Berlin public is much intrigué by the sudden departure of the King and Bismarck for Ems, as the Czar was at Berlin ten days before, when Bismarck pretended to be too ill to come and meet him.
Bernstorff professes entire ignorance on the subject, and supposes that, as Ems is now Prussian, the King thinks it necessary to give a personal welcome to his Imperial relative.
This is possible, but not probable, and I suspect, though I can give no good reason for so doing, that the more complete unification of Germany occupies the Prussian mind, beginning of course by the incorporation of Baden, and that it is thought desirable to get a Russian sanction of the project, in the event of its leading to war with France. One fails, however, to discover any reason why Russia should make an enemy of France and endanger the peace of Europe in order to justify the ambition of Prussia and enable the King to unduly tax his subjects for an unnecessary army.
Lord Clarendon's suspicions in this case were as correct as his prophecy with regard to the establishment of a Republic in France, although the words 'unnecessary army' might be taken exception to in the light of subsequent events. Benedetti[18] happened to be in Paris at the time when Lord Clarendon's letter arrived, and he informed Lord Lyons that he had 'entire confidence in the assurances of the King of Prussia and Bismarck, and that he did not apprehend any danger to peace, unless circumstances were too strong for His Majesty and his Minister, and this he thought improbable.' The idea of circumstances being too strong for Bismarck might fairly be classed with the danger to Prussia threatened by the appointment of Monsignor Klazko.
Lord Clarendon died on June 27, and was succeeded at the Foreign Office on July 6 by Lord Granville. The celebrated announcement that there had never been so great a lull in foreign affairs was made upon the authority of Mr. Hammond,[19] whose singularly faulty judgment and unhappy prophecies have been already commented upon. At the same time, it must in justice be admitted that appearances in the early summer of 1870 were unusually deceptive owing to the general calm which prevailed in the diplomatic world.
When the Hohenzollern candidature thunderbolt fell in the early days of July, the Duc de Gramont lost no time in intimating to the British Ambassador that France would go to war with both Spain and Prussia rather than allow a Hohenzollern to reign at Madrid. But although Gramont seemed bent upon committing the French Government to this course, he allowed it to be seen that he would be very grateful for any exertion England might make to induce the King of Prussia to forbid his kinsman to go on with his candidature. The election of Montpensier, he said, might be looked upon as a mauvais procédé towards the Emperor and the dynasty, but the putting forward a Prussian was an insult and an injury to all France. Similar language was held by the French Ambassador in London.
Lord Granville to Lord Lyons.
Foreign Office, July 6, 1870.
Your telegram of yesterday arrived while we were debating the Land Bill. It took Mr. Gladstone and me by surprise. I received your despatch and private letter this morning, and on my return from Windsor, M. de La Valette called on me. He held the same language to me as that reported by you to have been held by Gramont. France disclaimed all interference with Spain, but stated the arguments which made the possession of the Crown of Spain by a Prussian Prince dangerous to France. I am writing to catch the post, and I cannot repeat to you all the reasons which he gave, concluding by assuring me that the circumstances were of the gravest character, and that in his opinion, the Government of the Emperor could not, under the pressure of public opinion, admit a project of such a nature. He added however that there was no reason why any preliminary means should not be tried to avert so great an evil, and he addressed himself to the Government of the Queen, on the strength of our friendly relations, and our desire to maintain the peace of Europe, to exercise all our influence upon Prussia and upon Spain to stop the project.
I told M. de La Valette of the surprise which the matter had been to H.M. Government, that I perfectly understood the unfavourable effect which such an announcement was contemplated to produce in France, although I did not agree with all the arguments which he had used with respect to the importance to so great a nation as France of a German prince on the throne of Spain.
I said it was a matter of some regret to me that such strong language as that reported by you to have been addressed to the Prussian Ambassador should have been used. But I added that it was not so much a moment for the general discussion, as to see what could be done.
I readily assented to his request to use what influence we might possess both with Prussia and Spain, but without any pretension to dictate to either Power, to induce them to take into the most serious consideration all the bearings of this question, such as its gravity required, and I promised to communicate with you, Lord A. Loftus, and Mr. Layard at once.
It is very sad that I should be writing to you in the place of one who would have had so much personal power in such a matter as this.