Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon.
Paris, May 25, 1869.
I understand that the result of the elections gives pleasure at the Tuileries. The Imperialists generally seem very well satisfied. They consider the result to be a complete defeat of the Orleanists, a defeat of the Legitimists and a defeat of the moderate Republicans; the Chamber being thus divided into supporters of the dynasty and Ultra-Republicans. They think the prominence of the Spectre Rouge will frighten and unite the people at large, and cause them to rally round the dynasty. I cannot help being afraid that there are more rouges elected than is very safe, and the election of such a sanguinary socialist as Baucel both at Paris and Lyons is an uncomfortable symptom. The opposition will not be inconveniently numerous, and its violence will be in all probability simply a source of weakness.
I could not get Rouher to listen to any hint to propose to Prussia that a French vessel should be sent to Jahde,[14] though he seemed willing enough to send one if invited. You have, however, I think, entirely prevented them having any suspicion of our having been coquetting with Prussia, or having been willing to curry favour with her at the expense of France.
Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon.
Paris, May 29, 1869.
It is very generally believed that Rouher will be made the scapegoat and placed in the honourable retreat of the Presidency of the Senate. Since the great rally of the Moderates to the dynasty it has become the fashion to throw upon Rouher personally the blame of all the measures which he has had to defend. I don't know who can be found to take his place as Government orator.
Speculation is occupied in divining how the Emperor will take the elections. Some think that, finding himself in front of an opposition of Rouges, he will again take the part of the Saviour of Society and begin a new epoch of Cæsarism. Others, looking to the comparatively large number of independent members, whose elections the Government did not oppose, and to the liberal professions made even by the official candidates, expect a formal announcement of the responsibility of Ministers to the Chamber, and Parliamentary Government in form and in fact. An opinion not the least probable is that His Majesty will make no change, but appoint Ministers and direct his policy more or less in deference to the Chamber, according to circumstances.
I hope Beust's meddling in the Belgian question has been merely an awkward attempt to curry favour with the Emperor, but it may have had the mischievous effect of encouraging fresh pretensions on the part of France. Jealousy of Prussia will for a long time to come ensure sympathy between France and Austria.
The complacent feelings with which the election results were at first received at the Tuileries soon gave place to very different emotions. M. de La Valette was under no illusion as to the unimportance of a victory over the Orleanists, and had frequently assured the Emperor that they had no real backing in the country, and that His Majesty's extreme susceptibility with regard to the attention shown to the Princes of that House by the Court and by society in England was totally unnecessary. The more the elections were considered the less they were liked. It began to dawn upon the Emperor that it had been a mistake to help the Reds with a view to crushing the Orleanists or Moderate Liberals. A majority in the Chamber was indeed secured to the official candidates, but the moral weight of the votes given for them was small, for the influence of the Government had been unsparingly and unscrupulously used to secure their return, and even the official candidates had, with few exceptions, been forced to issue very Liberal addresses. Fear of the extreme men might bring the officials and the independent members together in the Chamber, but it was generally realized that the Government would have to go at least halfway to meet the Liberals. In short, it was difficult to conceal the fact that the elections had not resulted in a manifestation of confidence in the Imperial Government, and that they had shown that the party bent upon revolution at any price was dangerously large. Under these circumstances it was not surprising that the French Government showed itself alarmed and irritable, and although the country appeared to have declared against war there were not wanting Imperialists who would have been ready to look upon a provocation from abroad as a godsend.