To this home-thrust the Ambassador made the somewhat unconvincing reply that as evidence of our pacific disposition we had just sold an ironclad to the Prussian Government, and were ready to sell others—a reply which was received with irreverent merriment; neither do the imposing sentiments expressed respecting the general happiness and prosperity of Europe seem to have made much impression upon the man of blood and iron. The utmost that could be obtained from him was a vague statement that the whole question would be discussed by the Parliament 'in a year or so,' and that a decision must then be taken as to what was required for the safety of the country. 'I saw,' wrote the Minister sadly, 'that it was useless to pursue the question further.' Lord Clarendon realized that the game was up.
Lord Clarendon to Lord Lyons.
Foreign Office, March 23, 1870.
I send you a copy of Loftus's letter, and you will, I am sure, agree with me that more harm than good would be done by further pressing the question of disarmament, after the very decided expression of the King's opinion. You can tell Daru in mild terms the two objections raised by His Majesty and that, on the whole, I consider it better to wait and not to show much anxiety until the War Budget comes to be discussed next year, when the example of France, as regards military reductions, the pacific temper of her people, and the consolidation of her institutions, cannot fail to have a beneficial effect on the Federal Parliament. At present, it seems that the Liberal party, upon which Bismarck must lean more and more, would only support reduction on the condition that he would change his policy and invite, or coerce the South into the Confederation. Bismarck on this subject has behaved with prudence, at the expense of popularity, as regards Baden (the sorest point with the French), and he should not be pressed into a course he dislikes or thinks dangerous to the continuance of good relations with France. He is foolish about the press and always irritated by articles, however worthless, against Prussia, which he usually thinks are written by authority, or are the true manifestation of public opinion in the particular country.
You will observe that the King thinks I have been acting in the interest of France, and it is therefore not only on public grounds, but as regards myself personally, that I am very desirous that the most complete secrecy should be observed respecting the whole of these unsuccessful negotiations, if they can be so called. I know well the suspicious character of the King, and if he thought that we had cast in our lot completely with France, he would straightway set about a more intimate alliance with Russia which would not be for the interest either of England or France.
Pray therefore impress upon Daru the necessity of complete discretion.
Thus ended an attempt in the success of which no one probably felt much confidence. Various conclusions may be drawn from the correspondence quoted above. There seems to have been no doubt that the French Government (whatever may have been the sentiments of the Emperor) was sincerely anxious for a partial disarmament and the promised reduction of the annual contingent by 10,000 men was evidence of good intentions. There was, however, an essential difference between the French and Prussian view as to what constituted conquest and aggression which in reality precluded any real settlement.
Prussia held that it was not conquest or aggression to annex any German States, while France considered that the annexation of any States south of the Maine would be as much conquest or aggression on the part of Prussia, as it would be, on the part of France, to annex them herself. Prussia refused to declare that she would not complete the unity of Germany. France, on her side, refused to declare that she would not interfere to prevent it.
As for Bismarck's arguments against disarmament, some of them were positively grotesque, and it must have required more than ordinary assurance to contend, for instance, that Denmark and Monsignor Klazko constituted a menace to Prussia, whilst the artifice of representing the King as a sort of uncontrollable despot was too thin to deceive any one of ordinary intelligence. On the other hand, Bismarck seems to have displayed commendable patience and restraint when lectured on the iniquity of the Prussian military system. Lord Clarendon's language rather conveyed the impression that England stood upon a moral pinnacle which entitled her to admonish other nations as to the errors of their ways, but the claim was vitiated by the fact that she maintained, and intended to maintain, a navy of overwhelming strength, while if her military power was even more insignificant than it is at the present day, the cost of the British Army amounted to much more than that of the Prussian Army, and therefore the less said about unproductive expenditure the better. If, in fact, the respective expenditure of the two countries upon armaments is borne in mind it seems almost incredible that Lord Clarendon should have ventured to preach economy to the Prussian Government. During the previous year, the total British expenditure upon armaments amounted to no less than twenty-four millions and a quarter. Of this sum, rather more than fourteen millions were allotted to the Army, and nearly ten millions to the Navy. Now the total military and naval expenditure of the North German Federation at the same period only amounted to ten millions eight hundred thousand pounds, and the Prussian contribution towards the total represented a little over seven millions. It might also be added that England was quite ready at all times to supply to an unlimited amount, ironclads, rifles and munition of war to any foreign customer, however depraved. And yet we are pained and surprised when any one suggests that we are occasionally hypocritical!
But the most striking conclusion to be drawn from the correspondence is that Lord Clarendon, with all his knowledge of continental politics, does not seem to have fully grasped the really essential fact; he seems to have thought that by professions of friendship, by small concessions on the part of France, and by the establishment of more liberal institutions in that country, the threatened danger might be averted, whereas it was the fixed and inexorable determination of Bismarck to force a conflict upon France whenever the favourable opportunity should arise. A high tribute to Lord Clarendon's statesmanship was, however, paid by Bismarck at a later period. On making the acquaintance of one of his daughters a few years later, he opened the conversation with the singular remark that, never in the whole course of his life, had he been so relieved as when her father died; and then proceeded to explain that had Lord Clarendon lived, there never would have been a Franco-German war. As he did not enter into details, it may be presumed that he considered Lord Clarendon's influence to be so great that he might have successfully persuaded the French to acquiesce in some insignificant enlargement of Prussia.