For some months there had existed in France a feeling of uneasiness and of distrust in the maintenance of orderly government, and this feeling was greatly increased by the double loss of Gambetta and Chanzy. Gambetta was the only man in the Republican party whose ability and popularity were sufficient to induce the country to acquiesce in his wielding great power, and who was believed to have the will and the courage to exercise that power energetically in case of need. Chanzy was looked upon as the only man whose military reputation and influence qualified him to keep the army united and to use it with effect, in the case of grave political troubles.
As for the President of the Republic, M. Grévy, his energy and influence continued to diminish; the Chamber of Deputies was becoming more and more discredited, and the professedly anarchical parties were certainly increasing in violence, and apparently in numbers and influence as well. The public generally, even amongst the lower orders, showed few signs of great attachment to the Republican Government. That Government had not augmented their material prosperity, had not raised their social position, and had not realized their dreams of absolute equality with, or rather of predominance over, the rich and the educated. Every form of Monarchical Government was repugnant to them, but nevertheless a moderate Republic excited no enthusiasm whatsoever. The upper classes were alarmed and discontented; they did not believe that their property was secure, and they considered the work of administration was deplorably carried on by the various obscure Ministers who succeeded each other so rapidly in office; their religious feelings were daily shocked, while bad harvests, bad trade, and an unpromising financial situation added to the general feeling of dissatisfaction.
On the other hand, the 'spirited Colonial Policy,' which was now so much in evidence, did little to counterbalance this feeling, and the attempts which had been made to pander to the national vanity by the overbearing policy adopted towards Madagascar; the extension of French predominance in Tunis; annexations on the Congo; and the consolidation of the French Protectorate over Tonquin and Annam, had met with little success. The disquieting fact from the English point of view was that ill-feeling towards England, chiefly with regard to Egypt, had risen to a high pitch, and that each successive step taken by the British Government, and each declaration made by it, seemed only to increase the irritation. It was in this direction that, Lord Lyons feared, attempts would be made to divert public discontent by those who might be in power; and the procedure of the new French Government certainly justified the fear. The position which the French Government took up, was that of defending French influence and French interests in Egypt by its own independent means. It declared that by the abolition of the Control, a deep wound had been inflicted upon French dignity, while the principal security for the regular payment of the sums due in regard to the loans had been taken away. It did not hesitate to declare that any tampering with the Law of Liquidation, or with the lands and revenues pledged to the loans; or any failure to provide for the charges on the loans, would be regarded as a breach of international obligations on the part of Egypt, which would warrant the active interference of France. It hardly made any pretence of concealing its intention to work against English influence in Egypt by every means in its power, and unfortunately it was evident that in this anti-English policy it could reckon on the support of public opinion.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Jan. 9, 1883.
Blowitz's[37] intelligence certainly comes from the French Foreign Office, sometimes, I dare say, directly, but often only through the Temps. The Temps is published the afternoon before the day on which it is dated, and some hours before Blowitz's letter goes to the Times. Blowitz's letter always goes by telegraph, the Times having the exclusive use of a line for some hours every night.
It seems that Ferry will succeed Gambetta in the leadership of the largest portion of the Republican party. I do not think he is hostile to Duclerc, but if he attains to anything at all near to Gambetta's position, Duclerc will only hold office during his sufferance. Probably neither would be willing to serve under the other.
If, as seems likely, the death of Gambetta leads to the decay of the spirit of revenge upon Germany, this will (as I have said before) increase the danger of all other Powers from the restlessness of France, and will in particular increase our difficulties in Egypt. If any modification of the arrangement of the Law of Liquidation is proposed or any other step taken which can give France a pretext for interfering in defence of French interests, we may have trouble. If we leave a door open for French intrusion, France may get so far in, that her amour-propre may force her to push on at all risks.