Before long the question of the prolongation of Thiers's powers for a fixed period became the chief topic of interest. He was infinitely the most important personage in France, and a large number of members were desirous of placing him more or less in the position of a constitutional sovereign, and obliging him to take a Ministry from the majority in the Assembly. The majority in the Assembly not unnaturally thought that their ideas ought to prevail in the Government, and they resented being constantly threatened with the withdrawal of this indispensable man, an action which, it was thought, would amount to little short of a revolution. What they wanted, therefore, was to bestow a higher title upon him than Chief of the Executive Power, which would exclude him from coming in person to the Assembly; and it was only the difficulty of finding some one to take his place, and the desire to get the Germans out of the Paris forts that kept them quiet. Like many other eminent persons considered to be indispensable, Thiers now began to give out that he really desired to retire into private life, and that it was only the country which insisted upon his staying in office, while as a matter of fact, he was by no means as indifferent to power as he fancied himself to be. In the Chamber he damaged his reputation to some extent by displays of temper and threats of resignation, but there was never much doubt as to the prolongation of his powers.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Aug. 25, 1871.
Thiers quitted the Tribune in a pet yesterday, and the whole series of events in the Assembly has very much lowered his credit. In the one thing in which he was thought to be pre-eminent, the art of managing a deliberative body, he completely failed: and his first threatening to resign, and then coming back and half giving in, has very much damaged him. Nevertheless the general opinion is that the prolongation of his powers will pass, upon his making it a condition, as a vote of confidence, of his remaining. But it is difficult to believe, even if it be passed by a considerable majority, that things can go on smoothly between him and the Assembly very long. If any party had a leader and courage, it might do almost anything in France at this moment.
Arnim[2] is expected on Saturday. I knew him years ago at Rome. I doubt his being a conciliatory negotiator. The French believe that Bismarck is so anxious to obtain commercial advantages for Alsace, that he will give them great things in return. He is supposed to wish, in the first place, to conciliate his new subjects; and, in the second, to divert for a time from Germany the torrent of Alsatian manufactures which would pour in if the outlets into France were stopped up. The French hope to get the Paris forts evacuated in return for a continuance of the free entrance of Alsatian goods into France until the 1st of January, and they even speculate upon getting the Prussians to evacuate Champagne, and content themselves with keeping the army, which was to have occupied it, inside the German frontier, the French paying the expenses, as if it were still in France. All this to be given in return for a prolongation of commercial privileges for Alsace. It would be ungenerous of 'most favoured nations' to claim similar privileges.
Thiers was too full of the events of the afternoon in the Assembly to talk about the Commercial Treaty. I don't believe he has brought the Committee round to his duties on raw materials.
At the end of August, the Assembly by a very large majority passed a bill conferring upon Thiers the title of President of the Republic and confirmed his powers for the duration of the existing Assembly, adopting at the same time a vote of confidence in him personally. The result of these proceedings was that the attempt to make a step towards the definite establishment of a Republic and to place Thiers as President for a term of years in a position independent of the Assembly, failed. The bill asserted what the Left had always denied, viz. the constituent power of the Assembly, and declared that the President was responsible to it. So far, it expressed the sentiments of the moderate men, and the minority was composed of extreme Legitimists and extreme Republicans. It also proved that Thiers was still held to be the indispensable man.
The Assembly, which had adjourned after the passing of the above-mentioned bill, met again in December, and was supposed to be more Conservative than ever, owing to the fear created by Radical progress in the country. Thiers's Presidential Message did not afford much satisfaction to the extreme partisans on either side, and it was evident that he did not desire any prompt solution of the Constitutional question, preferring to leave himself free, and not to be forced into taking any premature decision. As for the Legitimist, Orleanist, and Moderate Republican groups, their vacillation tended only to the advantage of two parties, the Bonapartists and the Red Republicans.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Dec. 26. 1871.