I suppose there can be no hope that the disaster which has overwhelmed Hicks's army is less serious than is reported. It seems to be a grievous misfortune which has come at a most inopportune moment for us. It is far from causing sorrow to our friends here.
I quite understand your not being keen to arbitrate between France and China, and I don't think the French will be willing to accept the arbitration of anybody. What they understand by our good offices, is that we should help them to carry all their points against the Chinese. It is supposed that the Committee will press on the Government a larger vote for Tonquin than the Government has asked for.
In the mean time things at home are looking gloomy in France. There is likely to be a stagnation of trade and generally much distress during the winter. People of all classes are getting irritable, and seem to seek to vent their irritation on foreign Powers. Add to this that the depression and pusillanimity which followed 1870-1871, seem to be giving place to the former overweening opinion of the strength of France and consequently to Chauvinism.
I wrote a despatch to you by the last messenger as to the effect the lowering the wine duties for Spain would have here. I am never quite at ease when I think of our holding Most Favoured Nation treatment at the pleasure of the French. The lowest class who are gaining power are certainly not Free Traders.
In consequence of the Soudan disaster the Egyptian Government became anxious to call in the Turks to their assistance, and this project excited a strong feeling in France against the admission of the Sultan's troops, or of any Turkish fighting men into Egypt, to take part in the defence against the Mahdi, that feeling being founded on the old ground of danger to the French position in Tunis and Algeria. But, for the same reason, the French were disposed to throw a heavy responsibility upon England for taking precautions that the Mahdi should be effectually stopped somewhere or other. Everything, in fact, that England did in Egypt was wrong in French eyes, and there was a fresh outburst over an arrangement made between Lesseps and the English shipowners with regard to the Suez Canal.
In January, 1884, the British Government decided definitely upon the evacuation of the Soudan, and Gordon was despatched to carry out the operation.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Jan. 19, 1884.
I do not know that in the main any marked change in public opinion in France about Egypt has taken place since I wrote ten days ago; but as the state of things there remains unchanged for the better or becomes changed for the worse, excitement and reproaches against England increase. A catastrophe with regard to the garrison of Khartoum or that of Sinkat, or any massacre of Europeans, would probably produce a violent outcry against us, of a much more intense character than the present general upbraiding as to our allowing the advance of the Soudan towards civilization to be stopped, and the slave trade to be revived.
I am told confidentially that Barrère, the French Agent at Cairo, writes to urge his Government to decide upon some distinct line of policy, in view of the present crisis. His own idea would seem to be to ingratiate himself with the Egyptians at the expense of the English, to lead them to attribute all the present misfortunes to England and to teach them to look to France for ultimate deliverance from them. I hear that he rates Baring's ability very highly, but writes very disparagingly of the other Englishmen in office in Egypt. One of his topics in decrying England is said to be the sum charged by her on the Egyptian Treasury for the occupying troops. He is said not to be averse to touching the Law of Liquidation, because he conceives that, if this is done, France will get her finger into the pie again.
Tonquin is, at this moment, secondary to Egypt in interest here, but the French are getting impatient for news from Admiral Courbet.
Nothing particularly critical has yet taken place in the Chamber.
Lord Granville's reply seems to show that General Gordon was almost as great an optimist as himself.