Paris, Feb. 25, 1887.
The general feeling here seems to be that war has been escaped, but still there is a good deal of discontent against the foreign policy of the Goblet Cabinet. It seems to be considered that the understanding between Italy, Austria, and Germany is as good as made, and that the result of it will be to put an end to any fear of war between Russia and Austria. On the other hand, it is thought that Russia will feel it too necessary to watch Germany for it to be prudent of her to make an alliance with France, while without the alliance of Russia, France of course cannot face Germany, particularly as she has almost hostility to expect from Italy and no great sympathy to look for from England. The policy which has thus isolated France from the other Powers is seen to have been a mistake, and there seems to be a disposition to throw the blame on the Goblet Ministry. If the Goblet Ministry should fall, it is not improbable that the new Government might take the line of being conciliatory to the neighbouring countries and to Italy and England in particular. I am not very sanguine about this, but if in the meantime no irritating questions come to excite public opinion against us, there may possibly be a chance that a change of Ministry here would make our relations with France smoother.
My hopes that a change towards England may be in contemplation have perhaps been strengthened by a visit which I have just had from a person wholly unconnected with the French Ministry who evidently came to ascertain what were the particular points with regard to which the relations between France and England might be improved. I said that instead of thwarting us in our endeavours to improve the condition of Egypt and put it in a state to stand alone, the French might help us; and they could not expect comfortable relations with us if they endeavoured to stir up other Powers to make difficulties with us about Egypt. I mentioned also the New Hebrides question, which most certainly ought and might be settled at once. I alluded also to those various matters all over the world which might be treated in a cordial and not in an antagonistic spirit.
P.S.—I have strong reasons for thinking it very important that Waddington should not have the least inkling of my having had the above interview, or any communication of the kind.
Lord Salisbury to Lord Lyons.
Feb. 26, 1887.
I will not mention to Waddington the interview which you have had as to English grounds of complaint. I have not seen him for ten days: he must have taken huff at something.
I think, as the French are coming to their senses, it might be well to mention unofficially to Flourens that I am quite ready to resume the negotiations about the Suez Canal; and that I have good hope of bringing it to a successful issue, but that I am hindered by the flag that is floating at Dongorita, and by the delay of the French in performing their promises as regards the New Hebrides. We are being a good deal reproached here, on account of our apparent submission to this breach of faith. If these two matters are corrected, I shall find it possible, and shall be very glad to renew the Suez Canal discussion either at Paris or here.
I have seen Karolyi to-day—an unusual occurrence—and for the first time have had the admission from him that a war with Russia was not an impossible contingency.
The Russians are very quiet; and the negotiations about Bulgaria do not really advance a bit.
M. Flourens, in spite of his complete inexperience, seems to have realized the simple fact that it was not advisable to quarrel with England just at the moment when relations with Germany were in a critical condition; but unhappily the public did not appear to be in an accommodating mood. The statements published in the English press respecting the Drummond Wolff mission had caused great irritation, and what was perhaps more serious, had alarmed the French again about the security of the coupons. As long as they felt sure that the coupons would be paid regularly, and that there was no fear of future reduction, they were reasonably patient, unless some specially severe blow, such as a reduction of the numbers and salaries of French officials, as compared with English, was struck at their amour propre. Now, however, they were beset with the fear that, under what they considered to be English mismanagement, they were about to lose their money as well as their influence.
In March the Goblet Ministry was already in difficulties, and it was believed that Freycinet was likely to return to power, although what the precise advantages were of these continual changes, no one was capable of explaining.