The French want above all things to keep the peace, or, to put it otherwise, to escape being attacked by Germany in their present defenceless state. What, in your opinion, should they do? Of course the temptation to the unprincipled war party in Germany to attack them while they are unable to defend themselves, is very great; and that party must know that a war this year would be much less hazardous than one next year, and so on, as each year passes.
The next question I want your advice upon is what, if anything, can other Powers, and particularly England, do to help to preserve peace? This is a question peculiarly within your province, as the one thing to be considered in answering it, is the effect that anything we do may have at Berlin.
I am not very hopeful, but I think the chances of peace will be very much increased if we can tide over this year 1874.
I can see no consolation for a fresh war. I suppose Bismarck would be ready to buy the neutrality of Russia with Constantinople, and that France will give Russia anything even for a little help.
The Emperor Alexander has told General Le Flô[8] at St. Petersburg that there will not be war. Do you attach much importance to this?
You will call this a questionnaire rather than a letter, but if you have anything to catechise me upon in return, I will answer to the best of my ability.
The Lyttons' are, as you may suppose, a very great pleasure to me, and they have had a great success here.
No one was better fitted than Lord Odo Russell, who was a persona grata with Bismarck, to answer these queries. The Emperor Alexander had been very emphatic in assuring General Le Flô on several occasions that there would be no war, but Lord Odo was in all probability quite correct in his opinion that this was no real safeguard.
Lord Odo Russell to Lord Lyons.
Berlin, Feb. 20, 1874.
I was glad after a long interval to see your handwriting again, and doubly glad to find you inclined to renew our correspondence. You ask: Firstly, What in my opinion should the French do to escape being attacked by Germany in their present defenceless state?
In my opinion nothing can save them if Bismarck is determined to fight them again; but then, is it France or is it Austria he is preparing to annihilate? In Bismarck's opinion, France, to avoid a conflict with him, should gag her press, imprison her bishops, quarrel with Rome, refrain from making an army or from seeking alliances with other Powers all out of deference to Germany.
Secondly. What can other Powers, and particularly England, do to help to preserve peace?
A Coalition is impossible; advice or interference adds to Bismarck's excuses for going to war, so the only course Governments can follow is to let him do as he pleases and submit to the consequences, until he dies.
Thirdly. Do I attach any importance to the Emperor of Russia's pacific assurances?
None whatever, because Bismarck is prepared to buy his co-operation with anything he pleases in the East.
Bismarck is now master of the situation at home and abroad. The Emperor, the Ministers, the Army, the Press, and the National majority in Parliament are instruments in his hands, whilst abroad he can so bribe the great Powers as to prevent a coalition and make them subservient to his policy. Now, his policy, as you know, is to mediatize the minor States of Germany and to annex the German Provinces of Austria, so as to make one great centralized Power of the German-speaking portions of Europe. To accomplish this he may require another war, but it may be with Austria and not with France, which he now puts forward to keep up the war spirit of the Germans and to remind Europe of his powers. Besides which he has to pass the unpopular Army Bill and War Budget which he failed in last summer.
His anti-Roman policy will serve him to pick a quarrel with any Power he pleases by declaring that he has discovered an anti-German conspiracy among the clergy of the country he wishes to fight.
Such is the situation, but it does not follow that we shall have war before another year or two are over or more, nor need we have war if Bismarck can carry out his plans without it.
At present the tone of Bismarck and Bülow is quite pacific, and I notice a great desire for the co-operation of England in maintaining the peace of Europe generally.
Lord Lyons's own opinions were in exact agreement with Lord Odo Russell's, and the general uncertainty as to Bismarck's intentions continued to preoccupy both the French and the English Governments, although the Emperor of Russia persisted in assuring General Le Flô that there would be no war, and it was assumed in some quarters that the German Emperor disapproved of the Bismarckian policy.
The general election in England at the beginning of 1874, resulting in the return of the Conservative party to power, placed Lord Derby again at the Foreign Office in the room of Lord Granville, and the long letter which follows was presumably intended to enlighten him on the subject of French politics generally. It is, at all events, a concise review of the situation.