The double game which Décazes was playing was not, however, popular in France. It was felt that his intrigues with Russia tended to throw England into the arms of Germany, and his enemies asserted that he was too fond of speculation to be a thoroughly satisfactory Minister. However, an internal political crisis of an exceptionally important nature in May diverted French attention from all foreign questions for the time being.
Lord Lyons to Lord Derby.
Paris, May 16, 1877.
The Marshal has been getting more and more uncomfortable about M. Jules Simon's giving way in the Chamber of Deputies to the more advanced Left, and now, as you will have learnt from my telegrams, he has turned him out. It is believed that if matters came to extremities, the Marshal will bring out a thoroughly reactionary Ministry which he has in petto. The Duc de Broglie, Prime Minister, General Ducrot, Minister of War, and so on. This would necessitate a dissolution, for which the consent of the Senate would be necessary. But it is very doubtful whether the country is ripe for anything of the kind, and whether the result might not be the return of a still more radical Chamber than the present; and then either the Marshal must retire and hand the Government over to Gambetta or some one still more advanced in opinion, or make a real coup d'état by means of the army.
However he will no doubt try to form a Ministry rather more Conservative than the last and still able to get on somehow with the present Chamber of Deputies; but this will be difficult.
One of the Marshal's grounds of dissatisfaction with M. Jules Simon was that he would not, or could not, get from the Chamber powers which would enable the Government to restrain the press from attacking Germany in the dangerous manner in which it has written against that country lately.
The action of the Marshal in turning out Jules Simon, who was supported by a majority in a recently elected Chamber, and replacing him by the Duc de Broglie, who was extremely unpopular, might well be described as a very strong measure. Décazes, who was supposed to be in the plot, remained in office, and there was therefore not much probability of a change in foreign policy; but it was evident that there were now only two real parties in France—the Republicans and the Bonapartists. The possible restoration of the Empire filled with dismay Lord Derby, who considered that the last six years had witnessed a great purification both of public and private life in France, and that if the French were going back to a 'Government of adventurers, adventuresses, and priests,' it would be a grave misfortune for Europe; and he was most anxious to let it be known that there was no sympathy in England for Bonapartist intrigues.
Lord Lyons to Lord Derby.
Paris, May 18, 1877.
There are of course among the Right, many who, wisely or unwisely, rejoice that Marshal MacMahon has broken with the Left, but there is hardly any one who does not think the moment ill chosen, the reasons assigned insufficient, and the mode adopted unskilful. Décazes is represented, or misrepresented, as having been at the bottom of the whole thing.
He came up to me last night, and asked if I had not something to say to him about the sentiments he had expressed to me with regard to the dangers to English interests in Western Europe. He also expressed anxiety to know how the question of the wine duties was getting on in England. He is, I suppose, anxious to have something to show that he is successful in cultivating intimate relations with England.
While he seems so desirous of frightening us about Holland, he shows no inclination to admit that we have any interests at all in the East. In fact his plan seems to be to involve us in a quarrel with Germany, while he keeps safely aloof: to curry favour with Russia by taking to himself the credit of keeping our forces out of the East; to prevent any increase of our power in the Mediterranean, and to be well with us, but, if possible, better still with Russia. Still, on the whole, I am glad he remains in. I should not have been sorry to have Broglie himself as Minister for Foreign Affairs, but we might have a much more embarrassing Minister than Décazes, and he is easy going and conciliatory in most matters. Only we must not be surprised if he repeats to Russia, and Russia repeats to Germany, anything likely to impair our relations with Germany.
The other Ministers would almost seem to have been chosen for the express purpose of defying the majority of the Chamber. Broglie, of whom I have a high opinion, is especially unpopular. I suppose the notion has been to put as far as possible representatives of all shades of the Right into the Cabinet, in order to be able to form a coalition strong enough to obtain a vote in the Senate for dissolution. It is not certain that such a vote could be carried, the Conservative majority in the Senate being only 2 or 3 on ordinary occasions.