Lord Lyons to Lord Salisbury.
Paris, Dec. 30, 1879.
With the new Ministry I suppose Gambetta's reign is to begin. The Cabinet was almost ostensibly formed by him. He did not, and probably could not, put in any of the chief men of his own party. They are kept, or keep themselves, in reserve to come into power with Gambetta himself. The present Ministers are personally to a certain extent Moderate, and altogether, so far as they are known, mediocre. Freycinet is said to have some inclination to assert independence, but he has not hitherto rebelled against his old master Gambetta.
The man who appears to have lost most reputation in the affair is President Grévy. He knows well enough that it is Gambetta's intention to supplant him, but he has allowed himself to be circumvented with his eyes open, from lack of resolution and lack of energy, and has apparently let his rival obtain complete control of the Government.
I do not suppose that we shall see at present any marked change in the Foreign Policy of the French Government. Freycinet knows nothing whatever of Foreign Affairs. Gambetta has strong general notions, but seems more inclined to insist upon disposing of the patronage of the Foreign Office than to go into the details of the business. At home I suppose the first measure will be a wholesale redistribution of places. Aux situations nouvelles, il faut des hommes nouveaux, was the principle proclaimed by Clémenceau. Beust[27] turns the phrase round and says: Aux hommes nouveaux il faut des situations.
At all events the centre Gauche is dead, and with it the Thiers' policy, which was to preserve as far as possible the institutions, the laws and the administrative system in France, with the simple change of having an elective President, instead of an hereditary sovereign at the head. The policy could not last long unless it was directed by a really able energetic President. France is now about to try real democratic and republican government, and it will be a dangerous experiment in a country like this. It would be a still more dangerous experiment if the old warlike spirit had survived in the people. Happily for peace, they are more intent upon making and enjoying money than upon obtaining military glory, or even upon recovering their lost provinces. Gambetta will try for the recovery of the Provinces if he preserves his energies and fortune seems to give him a chance.
I have just seen Pothuau[28] who seems very indignant at his place in London having been offered to Waddington, and declares that he has no intention of giving it up.
Lord Lyons was destined to witness many more changes of Government in France before his final departure; most of them accurately described by the hackneyed phrase: Plus cela change, plus c'est la même chose.
A letter from Major Baring written at the close of the year is worth quoting as evidence of the improved and hopeful condition of Egypt, and also of the harmony prevailing at the time between the English and French Controllers.
Major Baring to Lord Lyons.
Cairo, Dec. 29, 1879.