Thiers's real motive was disclosed later on, when, whilst asserting that he should always act in a friendly spirit towards England, he admitted that 'England was a much more formidable competitor in commerce than any other nation.' Concessions which might safely be made to other countries might very reasonably be withheld from her. For instance, privileges which might be safely granted to the Italian merchant navy might, if granted to Great Britain, produce a competition between English and French shipping very disadvantageous to France. It would also be certainly for the interest of France that she should furnish herself with colonial articles brought direct to her own ports rather than resort, as at present, to the depôts of such goods in Great Britain. Nothing could be further from his intentions than to be influenced by any spirit of retaliation, nor, if the Treaty should be denounced, would he, on that account, be less friendly to England in political matters; but it was evident that, in making his financial and commercial arrangements, the interests and necessities of France must be paramount. In conclusion he pressed for an immediate answer from Her Majesty's Government in order that the French Government might complete their plans, which were of urgent importance.
To the impartial observer the opinions expressed by Thiers seem to be logical, natural, and reasonable, unless the principle of looking after one's own interests is unreasonable; but to the ardent devotees of Free Trade, they must have appeared in the light of impiety. Lord Lyons, in reporting the interview, remarked that 'nothing could have been more unsatisfactory than Thiers's language,' and added significantly that he himself had managed to keep his temper.
Thiers did not get his definite answer, and the wrangle continued until in February, 1872, the French Government, with the general approval of the nation, gave notice of the termination of the Commercial Treaty of 1860.
The Bill abrogating the proscription of the French Royal families had been passed by the Assembly, and the elections of the Duc d'Aumale and the Prince de Joinville consequently declared valid, but these princes having established their rights, wisely remained in the background. Not so another illustrious Royalist, the Comte de Chambord. This prince, who was also included in the reversal of the disqualifying law, returned to France and issued a proclamation from the Château of Chambord in July which spread consternation in the Royalist camp. After explaining that his presence was only temporary and that he desired to create no embarrassment, he declared that he was prepared to govern on a broad basis of administrative decentralization, but that there were certain conditions to which he could not submit. If he were summoned to the throne he would accept, but he should retain his principles, and above all the White Flag which had been handed down to him by his ancestors. This announcement seemed, to say the least, premature, and the supporters of a Republic must have warmly congratulated themselves upon having to encounter an enemy who played so completely into their hands.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, July 11, 1871.
The Comte de Chambord seems to have upset the Legitimist coach. The Legitimist Deputies have been obliged to repudiate the White Flag, being sure that they could never be elected to a new Chamber under that Banner, and of course fusion between the Orleans Princes and their cousin is now out of the question.
Thiers said to me last night that he did not regard the Comte de Chambord's declaration in favour of the White Flag as irrevocable—and that it looked as if it had been made in a moment of ill-temper. According to Thiers, both the Comte de Chambord and the Comte de Paris eagerly desire to be kings—most people doubt, however, whether the Comte de Chambord does really wish it. All that has occurred tends to strengthen and prolong Thiers's hold on power, and he is rejoicing accordingly. Indeed, there is hardly a Frenchman who professes to doubt that Thiers's Government is the only Government possible at the moment.
Gambetta is not considered by Thiers to be dangerous; he declares that he will only maintain a constitutional or legal opposition so long as the Government is Republican, and if he and his supporters stick to this, Thiers will certainly have no great cause to dread them. If Rouher had been elected he would have been a formidable opponent, though he has been too much accustomed to lead an applauding and acquiescing majority to be good at speaking to a hostile audience. Thiers says that the rejection of Rouher will be a good thing for his own health and repose, as he should have found it very fatiguing to have to answer the great Imperialist orator.
The hurry with which the new duties were rushed through the Assembly on Saturday is disquieting. Thiers and Jules Favre protest, however, that they are determined to do nothing irregular regarding the Commercial Treaties. The Swiss Minister tells me his Government is determined to insist upon the strict execution of the Swiss Treaty, without admitting any alteration of the tariffs, but then the Swiss Treaty does not expire for five or six years. I take care to give no opinion as to what we shall or shall not do. Thiers talked again last night of conferring with me soon about the details of the changes. I am not very anxious that he should do so, as confusion is much more likely than anything else to arise from carrying on the discussion in both places at once.
Half my time is taken up with the affairs of the unfortunate English prisoners. It is necessary to be cautious, for the French Authorities are extremely touchy on the subject. There does not appear to be any danger of their being executed, as fortunately they are a very insignificant and unimportant set of insurgents, if insurgents they were; but they are kept a long time without examination, and some do run the risk of being shipped off to New Caledonia.
The Comte de Chambord, having effectually destroyed the chances of his own party for the time being, now disappeared from the scene, and nothing more was heard of him or his White Flag for a considerable period.