The two most important questions of the moment were, of course, Egypt and the Commercial Treaty.
As regards Egypt, there was so far complete unity between the two Governments—the strain having not yet arrived—but the conclusion of a Commercial Treaty appeared to be a more arduous affair. Gambetta was apparently ready to go as far towards making an acceptable Treaty as was possible without risking a defeat in the Chambers. But if the negotiations were to fail, he would probably despair of keeping up good feeling towards England in France. He would conceive that the failure would discredit him in the eyes of France and of Europe; that it would convey to foreign Governments an impression, which he could not remove, of there being a coolness between France and England, and that it would oblige him to seek for his Foreign Policy some other basis than union with England.
Perhaps the fear that unsuccessful commercial negotiations would convert Gambetta into a foe was partly due to a communication from Sir Charles Dilke announcing that a commercial ultimatum was about to be hurled at the French Government. This communication is extremely instructive from the English Parliamentary point of view, for it recommended that in despatches the word 'bargain' should be carefully avoided, 'as it would strengthen the reciprocity argument.' In other words, although wine duties were to be utilized for the purpose of bargaining, the fact was not to be disclosed lest it might be construed as a departure from the sacred principles of Free Trade.
Attention was, however, quickly diverted from the Commercial Treaty to Egypt. On January 8, the British and French Governments presented the so-called Dual Note, in which they declared their intention of 'warding off by their united efforts all causes of external or internal complications, which might menace the régime established in Egypt.' The Dual Note was by no means as successful as had been hoped, and it is clear that Gambetta was in favour of more decided and independent action than the British Cabinet. Within a few days Lord Granville was already writing to Lord Lyons and asking him whether it would not be advisable for England and France to ask permission from the Powers to appear as mandatories of Europe.
Lord Granville to Lord Lyons.
Jan. 17, 1882.
The news from Egypt is certainly not reassuring, and the mauvais quart d'heure may arrive at any moment.
M. Gambetta would probably desire joint intervention; the objections to this are immense: I need not recapitulate them all to you.
Single occupation, by England or by France, still more so.
I am not quite sure that Turkish occupation under proper conditions and control by France and England, although a great evil, would not be less bad than the three alternatives I have mentioned. But it is not only bad in itself, but it would be strongly opposed by the French, although it would be supported by the German Powers. In these circumstances, an observation of Malet's struck me as having some force. Talking of the intentions of some of the other Powers to have their part in the question, he said it would not be so objectionable, if they consented to allow the English and French to be the mandatories.
The idea seemed to me to be worth considering, and I spoke to Tenterden and Rivers Wilson (but to no one else) and requested them to draw up a memorandum as to how this could be carried out. I send you an extract, and I should like to have your opinion on it before I submit it even to Gladstone as a possibility.
Gambetta of course would not like it. But his difficulty is as great as ours if he were to understand that we will not agree to joint occupation. There would be nothing humiliating to France if the proposal was freely consented to by both countries and jointly offered to Egypt.
For us it would only be acting on the Concert of Europe principle, about which we have been making such a fuss.
This somewhat half-hearted proposal met with no approval from Lord Lyons, who expressed his objections in more decisive terms than were usual with him.