Shortly after the visit of Lord Haldane Ballin received a letter from a personage belonging to the Kaiser’s entourage in which it was said:
“The impression which has taken root with me during the many hours which I spent as an attentive listener is that your broad-minded scheme is being wrecked by our official circles, partly through their clumsiness, and partly through their bureaucratic conceit, and—which is worse—that we have failed to show ourselves worthy of the great opportunity.”
When it had become certain that the last attempt to reach an understanding had definitely and finally failed, the ambassador in London, Count Metternich, did not shrink from drawing the only possible conclusion from it. He had always expressed his conviction that a war between Germany and a Franco-Russian coalition would find Great Britain on the side of Germany’s opponents, and his resignation—which, as usual, was explained by the state of his health—was really due to a report of his in which he stated it as his opinion that a continuation of German armaments would lead to war with Great Britain no later than 1915. It is alleged that the Kaiser added a very “ungracious” marginal note to this report. Consequently, the ambassador, who was a man of very independent character, did the only thing he could consistently do, and resigned his office. In taking this step he may have been influenced by the reception which the failure of the Haldane mission met with in Conservative circles in Great Britain, where no stone was left unturned to urge the necessity for continuing the policy of big armaments and to paint German untrustworthiness in the most glaring colours.
Count Metternich’s successor was Herr v. Marschall, a gentleman whose appointment the Press and the official circles welcomed with great cordiality, and from whose considerable diplomatic abilities, which were acknowledged on all sides, an improvement of Anglo-German relations was confidently expected. It was said that the Kaiser had sent “his best man,” thus demonstrating how greatly he also desired better relations. But Herr v. Marschall’s activities came to a sudden end through his early death in September, 1912, and in October his place was taken by Prince Lichnowsky, whose efforts in the direction of an improvement in the relations are familiar to everyone who has read his pamphlet. Apart from the work performed by the ambassadors, great credit is also due to the activities displayed by Herr v. Kühlmann, the then Secretary to the Legation and subsequent Secretary of State. The public did not see a deal of his work, which was conducted with skill and was consistent. His close personal acquaintance with some of the leading British politicians, especially with Sir Edward Grey, enabled him to do much work for the maintenance of good relations and in the interest of European peace, particularly during the time when the post of ambassador was vacant, and also during the Balkan War. He had, moreover, a great deal to do with the drafting of the two colonial agreements dealing with the Bagdad Railway and the African problems respectively, both of which were ready for signature in the summer of 1914. The former especially may be looked upon as a proof not only that a considerable improvement had taken place in Anglo-German relations, but also that Great Britain was not inclined to adjust the guiding lines of her policy in Asia Minor exclusively in conformity with the wishes of Russia. Anybody who takes an interest in the then existing possibilities of German expansion with the consent of Great Britain and on the basis of these colonial draft agreements cannot do better than read the anonymous pamphlet entitled “Deutsche Weltpolitik und kein Krieg” ("German World Power and No War"), published in 1913 by Messrs. Puttkamer & Mühlbrecht, of Berlin. The author is Dr. Plehn, the then representative of the Cologne Gazette in London, and it partly reflects the views of Herr v. Kühlmann.
In this connexion I should like to refer briefly to an episode which took place towards the close of 1912. The German periodicals have already discussed it, especially the Süddeutsche Monatshafte in June, 1921, in a review of the reports which Count Lerchenfeld, the Bavarian minister to the Court of Berlin, had made for the information of his Government. In these reports he mentions an event to which the Kaiser had already referred in a letter to Ballin dated December 15th, 1912. The Kaiser, in commenting on the state of tension then existing between Austria and Serbia, made some significant remarks concerning the policy of Germany towards Austria-Hungary. When the relations between Vienna and Petrograd, he wrote, had assumed a dangerous character, because it was recognized that the attitude of Serbia was based on her hope of Russian support, Germany might be faced with the possibility of having to come to the assistance of Austria.
“The Slav subjects of Austria,” the letter continued, “had become very restless, and could only be brought to reason by the resolute action of the whole Dual Monarchy against Serbia. Austria had arrived at the cross roads, and her whole future development hung in the balance. Either the German element would retain its ascendancy, in which case she would remain a suitable ally, or the Slav element would gain the upper hand, and she would cease to be an ally altogether. If we were compelled to take up arms, we should do so to assist Austria not only against Russian aggression, but also against the Slavs in general, and in her efforts to remain German. That would mean that we should have to face a racial struggle of the Germanic element against Slav insolence. It is beyond our power to prevent this struggle, because the future of the Habsburg monarchy and that of our own country are both at stake. (This was the real meaning of Bethmann’s very plain speaking.) It is therefore a question on which depends the very existence of the Germanic race on the continent of Europe.
“It was of great importance to us that Great Britain had so far supported the Austro-German standpoint in these matters. Now, since a war against Russia would automatically imply a war with France as well, it was of interest to us to know whether, in this purely continental case, Great Britain could and would declare her neutrality in conformity with her proposals of last February.
“On December 6th, Haldane, obviously sent by Grey, called on Lichnowsky and explained to the dumbfounded ambassador in plain words that, assuming Germany getting involved in war against Russia and France, Great Britain would not remain neutral, but would at once come to the assistance of France. The reason given for this attitude was that Britain could not and would not tolerate at any time that we should acquire a position of continental predominance which might easily lead to the formation of a united continent. Great Britain could therefore never allow France to be crushed by us. You can imagine the effect of this piece of news on the whole of the Wilhelmstrasse. I cannot say that I was taken by surprise, because I, as you know, have always looked upon Great Britain as an enemy in a military sense. Still, this news has decidedly cleared matters up, even if the result is merely of a negative character.”
Ballin did not omit to ask his friend for some details concerning the visit of Lord Haldane mentioned in the Kaiser’s letter, and was furnished with the following explanation by Lord Haldane himself.
Nothing had been further from his intentions, he said, than to call on Prince Lichnowsky for the express purpose of making any such declaration; and Balkan questions, to the best of his recollection, had not been touched at all. He had spent a very pleasant half-hour with the Prince, and in the course of their conversation he had seen fit to repeat the formula which had been discussed during his stay in Berlin, and which referred to Britain’s interest in the preservation of the integrity of France. This, possibly, might have given rise to the misunderstanding.