The Berliner Tageblatt, it said, had published some information concerning certain Anglo-Russian agreements on naval questions. The Foreign Office did not attach much value to it, because it was at variance with the general assumption that Germany’s relations with Great Britain had undergone a change for the better, and also with the apparent reluctance of British statesmen to tie their country to any such agreements. The matter, however, had been followed up all the same, and through very confidential channels it had been ascertained that the rumours in question were by no means devoid of an actual background of fact. Grey, too, had not denied them point blank at his interview with Lichnowsky. It was quite true that Anglo-Russian negotiations were proceeding on the subject of a naval agreement, and that the Russian Government was anxious to secure as much mutual co-operation between the two countries as possible. A definite understanding had not, so far, been reached, notwithstanding the pressure exercised by Russia. Grey’s attitude had become somewhat uncertain; but it was thought that he would ultimately give his consent, and that he would quieten his own conscience by arguing that the negotiations had not really been conducted between the Cabinets, but between the respective naval authorities. It was also quite likely that the British, who were adepts at the art of making nice distinctions, would be negotiating with the mental reservation that they would refrain from taking an active part when the critical moment arrived, if it suited them not to do so; and a casus fœderis would presumably not be provided for in the agreement. At any rate, the effect of the latter would be enormously to strengthen the aggressive tendencies of Russia. If the agreement became perfect, it would be useless for Germany to think any longer of coming to a rapprochement with Great Britain, and therefore it would be a matter of great importance to make a last effort towards counteracting the Russian designs. His (v. Jagow’s) idea was that Ballin, who had intimate relations with numerous Englishmen in leading positions, should send a note of warning across the North Sea. This suggestion was followed up by several hints as to the most suitable form of wording such a note, and the letter concluded with the statement that the matter was one of great urgency. A postscript dated July 16th added that a further article had been published by the Berliner Tageblatt, according to which the informants of the author also took a serious view of the situation.
Ballin, in response to the request contained in the letter, did not content himself with sending a written note to his London friends, but he immediately went to Berlin for the purpose of gaining additional information on the spot, with special reference to the general political outlook. He learned that Austria intended to present a strongly worded note to Serbia, and that it was expected that in reply a counter-note dictated by Russia would be received. He was also told that the Government not only wanted some information regarding the matter which formed the special subject of Herr v. Jagow’s letter, but also regarding the general political situation in London, as it was doubted whether the reports received from the ambassador were sufficiently trustworthy and complete. This was all that Ballin was told. Since then many facts have become known which throw a light on the way in which political questions were dealt with by the Berlin authorities during the critical period preceding the war, and if we, knowing what we know now, read the letter of Herr v. Jagow, we ask ourselves in amazement what was the object of the proposed action in London? Could it be that it was intended to intimidate the British Government? This could hardly be thought possible, so that some other result must have been aimed at. We can only say that the whole affair is still surrounded by much mystery, and we can sympathize with Ballin’s bitter complaints in later days that he thought people had not treated him with as much openness as they should have done, and that they had abused his intimate relations with leading British personages.
Ballin then left Berlin for Hamburg. He gave me his impressions of the state of political affairs—which he did not regard as critical—and went to London, ostensibly on business. In London he met Grey, Haldane, and Churchill, and there also he did not look upon the situation as critical—at least, not at first. When, however, the text of the Austrian note became known on Thursday, July 23rd, and when its full significance had gradually been realized, the political atmosphere became clouded: people asked what was Austria’s real object, and began to fear lest the peace might be disturbed. Nevertheless, Ballin returned from London on July 27th with the impression that a fairly capable German diplomat might even then succeed in bringing about an understanding with Great Britain and France which, by preventing Russia from striking, would result in preserving the peace. Great Britain and the leading British politicians, he said, were absolutely in favour of peace, and the French Government was so much against war that its representatives in London seemed to him to be rather nervous on the subject. They would, he thought, do anything in their power to prevent war. If, however, France was attacked without any provocation on her part, Great Britain would be compelled to come to her assistance. Britain would never allow that we, as was provided for in the old plan of campaign, should march through Belgium. It was quite true that the Austrian note had caused grave anxiety in London, but how earnestly the Cabinet was trying to preserve peace might be gauged by the fact that Churchill, when he took leave of Ballin, implored him, almost with tears in his eyes, not to go to war. These impressions of Ballin are confirmed by the reports of Prince Lichnowsky and other members of the German Embassy in their observations during the critical days.
Apart from these politicians and diplomatists on active service there were other persons of political training, though no longer in office, who did not think at that time that there was an immediate danger of war. In this connexion I should like to add a report of a very remarkable conversation with Count Witte, which took place at Bad Salzschlirf on July 24th. The Count—whose untimely death was greatly regretted—was without any doubt one of the most capable statesmen of his time—perhaps the only one with a touch of genius Europe possessed—and he certainly knew more about the complicated state of things in Russia than any living person. For these reasons his views on the events which form the first stage of the fateful conflict are of special interest. I shall reproduce the report of this conversation exactly as we received it at the time, and as we passed it on to Berlin. The authenticity of the statements of Count Witte as given here is beyond question.
“Yesterday (on July 24th) I paid a visit to Count Witte who was staying at Bad Salzschlirf, and in the course of the day I had several conversations with him, the first of which took place as early as ten o’clock in the morning. After a few words of welcome, and after discussing some matters of general and personal interest, I said to the Count: ‘I should like to thank you for your welcome letter and for your telegram. The question which you raise in them of a meeting between our two emperors appears of such fundamental importance to me that I may perhaps hope to be favoured with some details by you personally.’
“Witte replied: ‘In the first instance I wish to reaffirm what I have repeatedly told you, both verbally and by letter, viz. that I am not in the least anxious to be nominated Russian delegate for the proposed negotiations concerning a commercial treaty between Germany and Russia. Whoever may be appointed from the Russian side will gain no laurels. I think a meeting between the Kaiser and the Tsar some time within the next few weeks would be of very great importance. Have you read the French papers? The tone now assumed by Jules Hedeman is a direct challenge. I know Hedeman, and I also know that he only writes what will please Sasonov, Poincaré and Paléologue (the French ambassador in Petrograd). Now that the Peterhof meeting has taken place the language employed by all the French and Russian papers will become more arrogant than ever. It is quite certain that the Russian diplomatists and their French colleagues will now assume a different tone in their intercourse with the German diplomatists. The rapprochement with Great Britain is making considerable progress, and whether a naval convention exists or not, Great Britain will now side with Russia and France. If even now a meeting could be arranged between the two Emperors, this would be of immense significance. The mischief-makers both in Russia and in France would be made to look small, and public opinion would calm down again.”
“I asked Witte: ‘Do you think, Sergei Yulyevitch, that the Tsar would avail himself of a possible opportunity of meeting the Kaiser?’
“Witte replied: ‘I am firmly convinced of it; I may, indeed, state without hesitation that the Tsar would be delighted to do so. The personal relations between the Tsar and the Kaiser are not of an ordinary kind. They converse with each other in terms of intimate friendship, and each time the Tsar has had a chat with the Kaiser he has been in better spirits. Believe me, if this meeting comes off, the impression which the French visit has left on the Tsar will be entirely wiped out. The effect of the showy reception of the French visitors which the press agitators have not failed to use for their own ends will be obliterated. Such a meeting will express in unambiguous terms that, whatever value the Tsar attaches to the Franco-Russian alliance, he insists on the maintenance of amicable relations with Germany. The meeting will have to be arranged without loss of time, in about four or six weeks, because in two months from now the Tsar will be leaving for Livadia. The army manœuvres will be held within the next few weeks, and the Tsar will then go to the Finnish skerries where, in my opinion, the meeting might take place without difficulty.’
“I asked Witte: ‘Do you not think that, if the meeting were officially proposed by Germany, it might be looked upon as a sign of weakness on her side, especially in view of the now existing tension between the two countries?’
“Witte replied: ‘By no means. One has always to take into account the fact that the relations between the Tsar and the Kaiser, as I explained before, are in the highest degree friendly and intimate. I do not know how the Kaiser would feel on the subject, but I am convinced that he is possessed of the necessary political sagacity to find the way that will lead to a meeting. He might, e.g., write to the Tsar quite openly that, as the relations between their two countries had lately been somewhat under a cloud in consequence of the inefficient diplomacy of their respective representatives, he would be particularly happy to meet him at this juncture. Or the suggestion might reach the Tsar via the Grand Duke of Hesse and his sister, the Tsarina. But this is immaterial, because the Kaiser is sure to find the right way. I can only repeat that the effect of the meeting would be enormous. The Russian press and Russian society would change their whole attitude, and the agitation in the French press would receive a severe setback.’