"A correct solution must depend, in my judgment, on the degree of possibility, on the combination of reinforcement with provisioning and on the probable effects of the measure on the relations of the disaffected states to the National Government.
"I shall assume what the statements of the distinguished officers consulted seem to warrant, that the possibility of success amounts to a reasonable degree of probability; and also that the attempt to provision is to include an attempt to reinforce; for it seems to be generally agreed that the provisioning without reinforcements notwithstanding hostile resistance, will accomplish no substantially beneficial purpose.
"The probable political effects of the measure allow room for much fair difference of opinion, and I have not reached my own conclusion without much difficulty."
The Secretary then proceded to declare, that, if such a step would produce civil war, he could not advise in its favor, but that, in his opinion, such a result was highly improbable, especially if accompanied by a proclamation from the President reiterating the sentiments of his inaugural address. "I, therefore," concluded Mr. Chase, "return an affirmative answer to the question submitted to me."[[398]]
It will be seen, from the foregoing extracts, that five of the seven members of the Cabinet concurred in the opinion that no attempt should be made to provision or reinforce Fort Sumter, and that such an attempt would in all probability precipitate civil war. As Mr. Seward expressed it: "We will have inaugurated a civil war by our own act without an adequate object"; or in the language of Secretary Welles, "By sending or attempting to send provisions into Fort Sumter, will not war be precipitated?... I am not prepared to advise a course that would provoke hostilities."
If such were the opinions of leading members of President Lincoln's Cabinet, expressed in confidential communications to their chief, as to the character of the proposed action, can it be deemed unreasonable that the people of Virginia held similar views?
Fourteen days later, the President made a verbal request to his Cabinet for an additional expression of their views upon the same subject. Seward and Smith adhered to their former opinions. Chase and Blair were joined by Welles. Bates was noncommittal, and no reply was made by Cameron, so far as the records show.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE COLLISION
In the light of the facts and arguments presented by the members of the President's Cabinet, men, not a few, will conclude that, if the explosion occurred at Fort Sumter, the mine was laid at Washington.