POLITICAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTROL OF MINERAL RESOURCES
The occurrence of a mineral resource within a country does not necessarily mean control by that particular political unit. A citizen of the United States may own a mineral resource in South America. Commercial control of this sort was demonstrated during the war to be of more far-reaching significance than had been supposed, and it became necessary to ascertain, not only the output of the different countries, but the commercial control of this output. Investigation of this subject for twenty-three leading commodities shows that the political and commercial control are by no means the same. These are partly summarized in the accompanying graphs from Spurr.[11] It is to be noted that the graphs show the control of many commodities as it existed in 1913, the last normal year before the war. Changes during and since the war have of course largely altered the situation for certain commodities, notably for iron, coal, and potash. These developments are summarized in the discussion of the individual resources. It is also to be noted that the commercial or financial control of the world's minerals, under the influence of the fostering and protective policies of certain governments discussed in Chapter XVIII, is at present in a state of flux. Considerable changes are taking place today and are to be looked for in the future.
RESERVES OF MINERAL RESOURCES
Annual production figures are only to a very partial extent an indication of the distribution of the great reserves of mineral resources. For instance, there are enormous reserves of coal in China which are not yet utilized to any large extent. The minerals of South America and Africa are in a very early stage of development. The total world reserves will of course not be known until exploration and development of the world's resources are complete—a time which will probably never come. Figures of reserves represent only our present partial state of knowledge and are likely to be considerably modified in the future. Furthermore, the quantitative accuracy of knowledge of reserves is so variable in different parts of the world that it is almost impossible to make up world figures which have any great validity. There are, however, certain broad facts ascertainable.
Every country in the globe is deficient in supplies of some minerals. The United States is better off than any other country, but still lacks many mineral commodities (see pp. 396-399.) No single continent has sufficient reserves of all mineral commodities.
For the world, however, it may be stated with reasonable certainty that the reserves of the principal minerals are now known to be ample with the exception of those of oil, tin, and perhaps gold and silver. By ample we mean sufficient to give no cause for worry for the next few decades. For many mineral commodities the amounts now actually in sight will not last long, but the possibilities of extension and discovery are so great that a long future availability of these commodities can be counted upon with reasonable safety.
The present shortages in oil, tin, and other minerals mentioned may be only temporary. There is a large part of the world still to be explored, and the present reserves merely mark a stage in this exploration. Nevertheless, the ratio of reserves and discovery on the one hand to accelerated use on the other gives cause for much concern. Looking forward to the future, the problem of mineral reserves in general is not one of the possible ultimate amount which the earth may contain—presumably in no case is this deficient—but of the success with which the resource may be found and developed to keep up with the rapid acceleration of demand. In the chapter on conservation the suggestion is made that future difficulties are more likely to arise from failure to coödinate the dynamic factors of supply and demand, than from absolute shortage of material in the earth.
FOOTNOTES:
[10] Bastin, Edson S., and McCaskey, H. D., The work on mineral resources done by the U. S. Geological Survey: Min. Res. of the United States for 1918, U. S. Geol. Survey, pt. 1, 1920, p. 3a.
[11] Spurr, J. E., Who owns the earth?: Eng. and Min. Jour., vol. 109, 1920, pp. 389-390.