In considering the future availability of iron ores, it is obvious that tables of past production afford only a partial basis for prediction. Presumably districts which have produced largely in the past may be expected to continue as important factors. In these cases production has demonstrated availability. Continued heavy production may thus be expected from the ores of the Lake Superior region, from the Clinton hematites of Alabama, from the ores of the Lorraine-Luxemburg-Briey district, from the Cleveland ores of England, from the Bilbao ores of Spain, from the high-grade magnetites of northern Sweden, and (assuming political stability) from the ores of southern Russia.
Similarly, also, recent increases in production from certain districts are probably significant of increased use of such ores in the future. Among these developments are the increasing production of Swedish ores and their importation into England and Germany, and the increasing use of Clinton hematites and Adirondack magnetites in the United States. Low-grade ores from the great reserves of Cuba are being mined and brought to the east coast of the United States in increasing amounts, and it is highly probable that they will take a larger share of the market. A similar project in Chile, which lay dormant during the war because of restricted shipping facilities, is expected in the near future to yield important shipments to the United States. In none of these cases will production be limited in the near future by ore reserves. Increased production and use of iron ores are also to be looked for in Newfoundland, North Africa, China, India, Australia, and South Africa.
On the commercial horizon are ores of still newer districts, the availability of which may not be read from tables of production. Their availability must be determined by analysis and measurement of the factors entering into availability. Availability of iron ore is determined by percentage of iron, percentages of impurities, percentages of advantageous or deleterious minor constituents, physical texture, conditions for profitable mining, adaptability to present furnace practice, distance from consuming centers, conditions and costs of transportation, geographical and transportational relation to the coal and fluxes necessary for smelting, trade relations, tariffs and taxes, inertia of invested capital, and other considerations. All of these factors are variable. A comparison of ores on the basis of any one of these factors or of any two or three of them is likely to be misleading. A comparison based on the quantitative consideration of all of the several factors seems to be made practically impossible by the difficulty of ascertaining accurately the quantitative range and importance of each factor, and by the difficulty of integrating all of the factors even if they should be determined. However, their combined effect is expressed in the cost of bringing the product to market; and comparison of costs furnishes a means of comparing availability of ores. A high-grade ore, cheaply mined and favorably located with reference to the points of demand, will command a relatively high price at the point of production. The same ore so located that its transportation costs are higher will command a lower price; or it may be so located that the costs of mining and bringing it to places where it can be used are so high that there is no profit in the operation. There are known high-grade iron ores which, because of cost, are not available under present conditions.
The availability of an ore, then, depends on its relation to a market,—whether, after meeting the cost of transportation, it can be sold at prevailing market prices at the consuming centers, and can still leave a fair margin of profit for the mining operation. The price equilibrium between consuming centers affords a reasonably uniform basis against which to measure availability of ores.
Figures of cost are obtainable as a basis for comparison of availability of iron ores of certain of the districts, but not enough are at hand for comparison of the ores of all districts. Careful study of costs has demonstrated the availability in the near future of the Brazilian high-grade Bessemer hematites; and projects which are now under way for exportation to England and the United States will doubtless make this enormous reserve play an important part in the iron industry. Iron ore is known but not yet mined in many parts of the western United States and western Canada. With the increasing population along the west coast of North America, projects for smelting the ore there are becoming more definite. Establishment of smelters on the west coast would make available a large reserve of ore (see also, however, p. 155).
The list of changes now under way or highly probable for the future might be largely extended. The use of iron and steel is rapidly spreading through populous parts of the world which have heretofore demanded little of these products. This increased use is favoring the development of local centers of smelting, which will make available other large reserves of iron ore. The growth of smelting in India, China and Australia illustrates this tendency.
Iron ore reserves are so large, so varied, and so widely distributed over the globe, that they will supply demands upon them to the remote future. Reserves become available and valuable only by the expenditure of effort and money. Ores are the multiplicand and man the multiplier in the product which represents value or availability. Iron ore can be made available, when needed, almost to any extent, but at highly varying cost and degree of effort. The highest grade ores, requiring minimum expenditure to make them available, are distinctly limited as compared to total reserves. Any waste in their utilization will lead more quickly to the use of less available ores at higher cost. One of the significant consequences of the exhaustion of the highest grade reserves will be an increased draft upon fuel resources for the smelting of the lower grade ores. Availability of iron ores is limited, not by total reserves, but by economic conditions.
Geologic Features
Iron rarely exists in nature as a separate element. It occurs mainly in minerals which represent combinations of iron, oxygen, and water, the substances which make up iron rust. Very broadly, most of the iron ores might be crudely classified as iron rust. In detail this group is represented by several mineral varieties, principal among which are hematite (Fe2O3), magnetite (Fe3O4), and limonite (hydrated ferric oxide). Iron likewise combines with a considerable variety of substances other than oxygen; and some of these compounds, as for instance iron carbonate (siderite), iron silicate (chamosite, glauconite, etc.), and iron sulphide (pyrite), are locally mined as iron ores. While an ore of iron may consist dominantly of some one of the iron minerals, in few cases does it consist exclusively of one mineral. Most ores are mixtures of iron minerals.
Fully nine-tenths of the iron production of the world comes from the so-called hematite ores, meaning ores in which hematite is the dominant mineral, though most of them contain other iron minerals in smaller quantities. About 5 per cent of the world's iron ores are magnetites, and the remainder are limonites and iron carbonates.