THE FIRST HAND OR LEAD.
The considerations that determine the most advantageous card to lead at the commencement of a hand differ from those which regulate the lead at other periods; for, at starting, the Doctrine of Probabilities is the only guide; while, as the hand advances, each player is able, with more or less certainty, to draw inferences as to the position of some of the remaining cards. The number of the inferences, and the certainty with which they can be drawn from the previous play, constantly increase; hence it not unfrequently happens that, towards the termination of a hand, the position of every material card is known.
In treating of the lead, it will be most convenient to begin by examining the principles which govern the original lead. The application of these principles will require to be somewhat modified in the case of trumps, as will appear hereafter.
1. LEAD ORIGINALLY FROM YOUR STRONGEST SUIT.
The first question that arises is, Which is the strongest suit? A suit may be strong in two distinct ways. 1. It may contain more than its proportion of high cards. For example, it may contain two or more honours—one honour in each suit being the average for each hand. 2. It may consist of more than the average number of cards, in which case it is a numerically strong or long suit. Thus a suit of four cards has numerical strength; a suit of five cards great numerical strength. On the other hand a suit of three cards is numerically weak.
In selecting a suit for the lead, numerical strength is the principal point to look to; for it must be borne in mind that aces and kings are not the only cards which make tricks; twos and threes may become quite as valuable when the suit is established—i.e., when the higher cards of the suit are exhausted. To obtain for your own small cards a value that does not intrinsically belong to them, and to prevent the adversary from obtaining it for his, is evidently an advantage. Both these ends are advanced by choosing for your original lead the suit in which you have the greatest numerical strength; for you may establish a suit of this description, while, owing to your strength, it is precisely the suit which the adversary has the smallest chance of establishing against you. A suit that is numerically weak, though otherwise strong, is far less eligible.
Suppose, for example, you have five cards headed by (say) a ten in one suit, and ace, king, and one other (say the two) in another suit. If you lead from the ace, king, two suit, all your power is exhausted as soon as you have parted with the ace and king, and you have given the holder of numerical strength a capital chance of establishing the suit. It is true that this fortunate person may be your partner; but it is twice as likely that he is your adversary, since you have two adversaries and only one partner. On the other hand, if you lead from the five suit, though your chance of establishing it is slight, you, at all events, avoid assisting your adversary to establish his; the ace and king of your three suit, still remaining in your hand, enable you to prevent the establishment of that suit, and may procure you the lead at an advanced period of the hand. This we shall find as we proceed is a great advantage, especially if, in the course of play, you are left with all the unplayed cards, or long cards, of your five suit.